Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

The discussion mentions it should be in a low shear environment between the two ULLs during the next 5 days.

[boca]

That ULL is now moving north as seen on the visible like x-y-no stated its an illusion,not when I look at this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[HouTXmetro]

The discussion mentions it should be in a low shear environment between the two ULLs during the next 5 days.

Can I get a link to the discussion?

[cycloneye]

The discussion mentions it should be in a low shear environment between the two ULLs during the next 5 days.

Can I get a link to the discussion?

It's posted in the advisory thread.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The discussion mentions it should be in a low shear environment between the two ULLs during the next 5 days.

Can I get a link to the discussion?

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 01, 2006

based on geostationary satellite imagery...the overall organization
of the tropical cyclone has changed little over the past several
hours. Radar imagery from Guadeloupe show some fairly well-defined
spiral rain bands. Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB...SAB...and AFWA are 35 kt...35 kt...and 25 kt respectively.
Since there is no evidence of strengthening...the advisory
intensity remains at 35 kt. Chris is in a rather anticyclonic
lower-tropospheric environment as evidenced by high sea level
pressures over the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. In
fact...the 850 mb environmental vorticity is a significant negative
predictor in the 12z SHIPS model intensity forecast for Chris.
Northerly shear is currently impacting the system and this is
inhibiting upper-level outflow over the northwest quadrant. As
noted in the previous discussion...Chris could become favorably
situated in a col region between two upper-level lows over the next
several days. This might lead to a low-shear environment that
would be favorable for strengthening. The official forecast is
very similar to the current SHIPS model output and is above the
intensity forecast consensus...icon. It should noted that the
GFS...U.K. Met...NOGAPS...and ECMWF global models essentially
dissipate Chris within 5 days.
Even with high-resolution visible images...the center is not
well-defined. However the advisory location is in reasonable
agreement with the Guadeloupe radar observations. Initial motion
is estimated at 295/9. Chris is currently situated to the south of
a mid-tropospheric high pressure area. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge...associated with a well-defined upper-level
low...is now in the vicinity of 70w longitude. This weakness is
forecast to shift westward while a ridge is maintained to the north
of Chris. This steering regime should maintain the
west-northwestward track for the next few days. The official track
forecast is very similar to the previous one...and a little to the
north of the dynamical consensus.
Air Force recon are scheduled to make an 1800 UTC fix on Chris. We
expect the aircraft data to provide US with a better handle on the
location...strength...and structure of the tropical cyclone later
today.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/1500z 17.3n 60.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 02/0000z 17.9n 61.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 02/1200z 18.8n 64.1w 45 kt
36hr VT 03/0000z 19.7n 66.3w 50 kt
48hr VT 03/1200z 20.4n 68.4w 50 kt
72hr VT 04/1200z 21.7n 72.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 05/1200z 23.0n 75.5w 50 kt
120hr VT 06/1200z 24.0n 78.5w 50 kt
$$
forecaster Pasch

[boca]

link
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200603.disc.html

[drezee]

if you read the discussion...you will see something that Chris has in common with Erin '95, Isabel, and Andrew


CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[cheezyWXguy]

is the fact that the ULL's moving good for development?

[Josephine96]

Looks like it may wanna visit South Beach..

[gtalum]

On a side note, my cruise leaves for the Bahamas from Port Canaveral on August 6. Looks like that will be in jeopardy if the system is where the NHC says it will be on that date.

If Chris is where the NHC says it will be on the 6th, you won't have any problems aside from a possible embarkation delay. Those ships can skirt right around the storms with no trouble. The only time you have real problems in cruise departures is when the actual port is directly affected, and Chris will never be within 200 miles of Port Canaveral.

EDIT: You could end up with alternate ports or a cruise to nowhere, though. But by the time you'r escheduled to be in the Bahamas, on the 7th, Chris will likely be long gone.

[HouTXmetro]

well, in other words the NHC is going against the models who all dissipate Chris?

[gatorcane]

if you read the discussion...you will see something that Chris has in common with Erin '95, Isabel, and Andrew


CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

please don't say that

[x-y-no]

well, in other words the NHC is going against the models who all dissipate Chris?

Yes, because none of the globals initialized the system correctly. They're all too weak to start with, thus they lose it.

[Stratosphere747]

And until recon gets more accurate info, you can almost bet there will be some changes in store.

[wxman57]

Looks like the NHC lost the center overnight and made the incorrect assumption that it was beneath the heavier squalls to the south. Morning visible satellite indicates a position about 50 miles to the north of where the NHC had it, exposed and sheared. Probably doesn't qualify as a TS now, but there could be a few tiny pockets of TS force winds well removed from the center in squalls.

If Chris survives, I wouldn't rule out a WNW track to the Gulf south of Florida. That's a pretty strong ridge over the U.S.. If Chris doesn't turn by the Bahamas, it could go west or even a bit south of west.

[cycloneye]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

The plan of the day is out for the future missions.

[x-y-no]

Cloud tops are warming - no strengthening for a while.

[caneman]

We'll know more tomorrow morning after NOAA has flown in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the NHC lost the center overnight and made the incorrect assumption that it was beneath the heavier squalls to the south. Morning visible satellite indicates a position about 50 miles to the north of where the NHC had it, exposed and sheared. Probably doesn't qualify as a TS now, but there could be a few tiny pockets of TS force winds well removed from the center in squalls.

If Chris survives, I wouldn't rule out a WNW track to the Gulf south of Florida. That's a pretty strong ridge over the U.S.. If Chris doesn't turn by the Bahamas, it could go west or even a bit south of west.

I'm not liking that last paragraph, because of where that means this could end up. Hopefully Chris just weakens.

[Innotech]

oh lord.
This ones got my little brothers name. hang on to your hats