Wave in Central Caribbean Thread #2

duris · #21 Postby **duris** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:01 am

The "worst case scenario" pre-Katrina that was published in the Times Picayune showed that I would have four feet or less of water, and I had six for Katrina. Obviously that was because the condition of the levees wasn't known. I don't know we could expect waterwise under the new scenario but haven't seen anything saying 24 feet. Certainly could expect worse and having seen the wind damage on the MS coast that would be much worse. We had little wind damage, mostly just water. New Orleans big problem with most any storm now would also be the present damage to out infrastructure. Water pressure, power, etc are precarious already.

HouTXmetro · #22 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:04 pm

IT'S BACK!!!!!!

#23 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:11 pm

>>LOL I remember Katrina was "the little TD 10 that could" that every one wrote off due to the SAL then Shear and dryair...

Indeed. You could see the tenacity though. Anything that survives that kind of beating is built on very strong energy. I got in some big arguments with other posters who wanted to be "first" or "on record" with wiping the whole thing out. But day after day as it got beaten, it kept some level of signature and refused to die (unfortunately for me and a lot of other people). But it just kept plugging along until it wrought havic on the lives of a couple million people indirectly and 500-700k directly.

But I learned my lesson then. Not only do I occasionally recognize a system that has "that look" (although this one doesn't yet), I'll never write off a tenacious wave or TD in the future.

Steve

HouTXmetro · #24 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:55 pm

I doubt it will substain itself but convection is Flaring big time. :eek:

Stratosphere747 · #25 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:59 pm

HouTx...

This is the 4/5th day in a row that this excat thing has happened. Look for the convection to decrease as we move into the night.

Not sure if there is even a wave axis present anymore....

f5 · #26 Postby f5 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:19 pm

what would Katrina's 175 mph winds do to NO thats the big if?

duris · #27 Postby **duris** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 5:52 pm

f5 wrote:what would Katrina's 175 mph winds do to NO thats the big if?

Dunno but I probably wouldn't have to worry about the issue of whether my homeowners insurance covers my losses.

As bad as New Orleans was with the flooding, its amazing what the winds (and storm surge) did to the MS coast.

Stratosphere747 · #28 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:03 pm

jschlitz...

I continue to find the Corpus discos much more informative, especially when looking at the long-term forecasts. Here is Corpus talking about the possible movment of moisture from what looks to be the wave in the Caribbean.

WHEN THE FIRST SLUG OF HIGHER PWS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT ORIGINATES PARTLY FROM A WAVE THAT
CURRENTLY RUNS FROM NE OF CUBA...SOUTHWEST TO PUERTO RICO AND
JAMAICA. MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
WIDESPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS NEARING 2 INCHES LATER FRI
THROUGH MON. HAVE KEPT LOW END CHC POPS FOR LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND...WAITING FOR A FEW MORE RUNS TO ESTABLISH A GOOD TREND.

caneman · #29 Postby **caneman** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:16 pm

I believe this area needs a little more attention. What a blow up of convection.

Wave in Central Caribbean Thread #2

IT'S BACK!!!!!

Who is online