Word of the Day -- 91L?

#1 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:00 am

I'm not too concerned about 99L, but the new wave that moved off the west coast of Africa yesterday is the one that the GFDL has been developing for the last 9 days. Looks very well organized, much better than 99L. Could very well be 90L soon (or should). This one may have a good chance of developing.

Hurrilurker · #2 Postby **Hurrilurker** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:31 am

It looks good, lots of convection bubbling. But I don't see any circulation as yet. What is the shear setup?

#3 Postby **EDR1222** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:03 am

It does look interesting. It seems to have come off and held together fairly well.

Let's see if it can hold up.

kenl01 · #4 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:05 am

This one might be the best candidate so far, as we're into August now:

The global models disagree one what wave will become the most dominant and have the better chance of tropical development. The GFS, for example, is progging development sooner than any other model. The GFS develops the wave that exited the coast tonight, while the CMC and NOGAPS are hinting at development of a wave behind it. The ECMWF is more in agreement with the CMC and NOGAPS tonight. For the first time, the ECMWF is developing a tropical cyclone near the Cape Verde Islands in 72-96 hours. The UKMET is the slowest, but is hinting at an intensifying low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic in 5-6 days. In summary, the models are becoming increasingly aggressive.

The enhancing phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is already spreading over the central Atlantic, and it will make it into the eastern Atlantic and Africa over the next five days. The eastern Atlantic will remain moist, the Saharan Air Layer will be limited, and upper level winds should be conducive enough for at least one of these waves to become a tropical cyclone within the next 7-10 days.

http://independentwx.com/discussion.html

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:06 am

NOGAPS does not show a TC in the 0Z run. No closed surface circulation, unlike the GFS/CMC

Taffy · #6 Postby **Taffy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:09 am

Why did the number system go back to 90?

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:11 am

Taffy wrote:Why did the number system go back to 90?

For invests they run from 90 - 99, so when you are in 99 you go back to 90.

Thunder44 · #8 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:19 am

This one looks really good, but the system off the Carolina coast might get designated 90L first.

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:20 am

Derek Ortt wrote:NOGAPS does not show a TC in the 0Z run. No closed surface circulation, unlike the GFS/CMC

Yeah, time will tell on this one. Many such strong waves move off the coast of Africa each season looking like they're already TDs. Most lose much of their convection within 48 hours of moving offshore. But the time is getting right for such systems to hold together. This one may. We'll know in another 24 hours or so.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:21 am

Thunder44 wrote:This one looks really good, but the system off the Carolina coast might get designated 90L first.

Agree.

boca · #11 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:48 am

Everything looks good when emerging off of Africa. If this can stick around without losing circulation structure I'll be impressed.

Thunder44 · #12 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:01 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:This one looks really good, but the system off the Carolina coast might get designated 90L first.

Agree.

I was right on.

Bane · #13 Postby **Bane** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:06 am

Looks like this one will be 91L.

ThunderMate · #14 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:07 am

lol...thread name change!!

#15 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:56 am

I agree this wave looks much better than 99L and the pattern is changing to become more favorable for this one to form. Do I spy the Azores high moving northward... some of the global models show this trend.

#16 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:02 pm

Absolutely the best wave yet. Strangely the globals are having a horrible time with these CV systems. 99L never initialized right and they are all over the map with this new wave.

jimvb · #17 Postby **jimvb** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:21 pm

Most of the GFS runs so far on this system coming off Africa show it either going fish or dissipating. But now the 2006 July 31 12Z run shows it becoming a pretty big storm around August 4, probably a hurricane, approaching the East Coast. About 600 miles from the coast, it turns to the north northeast and hits Nova Scotia. This is the closest approach of this system to the Carolinas that I have seen yet of this storm, which I have been watching for a week on the GFS.

I wonder what 18Z will bring? Or 00Z tomorrow?

#18 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:32 pm

The GFS forecasted a potential low to form about 9 days ago also and to come close to the leeward islands - and it looks like it was pretty on target.

Cyclenall · #19 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:43 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Why did the number system go back to 90?

For invests they run from 90 - 99, so when you are in 99 you go back to 90.

They should do it differently because why not start with a number like 50 and it can go up from there for the rest of the season? It would take 50 invests before you go back to 50 again.

This one looks really good, but the system off the Carolina coast might get designated 90L first.

You were correct.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:54 pm

wxman57,I changed in the title the number from 90L to 91L.

Word of the Day -- 91L?

Word of the Day -- 91L?

GFS has it coming back

Who is online