Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Derek Ortt]

quick met lesson

SAL comes from the east; therefore, a wave near 55W moving west will not affect the SAL at all. The sacrifical wave, if any, would be the wave that emerged off of Africa today

[windycity]

thanks for clarifing that, Derek.

[Blown Away]

Initially the GFDL takes 99L abruptly SW, ??? The other models dissect DR, Hispaniola, and Cuba. If it is going to be a day or so before 99L reaches favorable atmospheric conditions, it won't matter to much, it will mean alot of rain for those countries, which never seems to be a good thing.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The GFDL did an awesome job with Katrina's track, what if they were correct again?

[storms in NC]

The GFDL did an awesome job with Katrina's track, what if they were correct again?

No they didn't do so good over Fla

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The GFDL did a fair job with Katrina when it went over florida. Yes Katrina went more north then made the turn more southwestard, Instead of heading through the keys. But what other model came close?

[storms in NC]

It just show you hurricans have a mind of their own sometimes

[shaggy]

again alot of talk for a system thats barely holding on.If it starts to develop i wouldn't be surprised to see the models start swinging it a little further north but as of right now if it doesn't get busy its just a pretty swirl of clouds in the ocean!

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL had Katrina passing south of the FL Peninsula as a category 5 hurricane

[Blown Away]

How many pages were spent last year arguing whether that big mess in the SE Bahamas would develop, correct me if I'm wrong there were alot of pro's that kept saying it would fizzle. It didn't and made history, Katrina! As long as the NHC says there is potential, it's worth discussing all the swirls, model flip flopping, and bursts of convection, that's why most of us are here, IMO! I'm glad there is something worth debating about, even if it is hanging on for dear life! We could be discussing whether Camille was a 4 or 5 at landfall or is global warming producing more hurricanes!

[boca]

This is a weather board meant for disscussing the potential a system might have thats why were all here. Open wave or hurricane,let the disscussions continue no matter how pathetic 99L looks.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

My sentiments exactly, Blown_away.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 310219
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...EASTERN
CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[f5]

remember how everyone says the now infamous TD 10 was dead and it came back alive and created a gulf coast disaster

[Grease Monkey]

Well this invest is already starting to see that bright light in tropical disturbance heaven.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression 10 looked a heck of alot better then this system at the same spot. It had a LLC. But with the shear shearing the convection the nhc did not reupgrade.

[WindRunner]

Well, I see that despite all the discussion that was going on earlier today, no one posted the recon POD. Two flights scheduled, first of which takes off at noon tomorrow.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 301545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 30 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z JUL TO 01/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-061

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
       FLIGHT ONE                     FLIGHT TWO
       A. 31/1800Z                    A. 01/0600, 1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 31/1600Z                    C. 01/0430Z
       D. 15.0N 058.5W                D. 16.0N 061.0W
       E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z        E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT             F. SFC TO 10,000FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                       CDL


If this was already posted, sorry, I tried to check the posts from around midday today and didn't see anything.

[shaggy]

TWO at 1030 no longer says its possible to become a tropical depression over the enxt couple of days..i know this doesn't mean that it cant but that maybe their attitudes are changing....all this while a decent flare up is starting!

[cycloneye]

Well, I see that despite all the discussion that was going on earlier today, no one posted the recon POD. Two flights scheduled, first of which takes off at noon tomorrow.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 301545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 30 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z JUL TO 01/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-061

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
       FLIGHT ONE                     FLIGHT TWO
       A. 31/1800Z                    A. 01/0600, 1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
       C. 31/1600Z                    C. 01/0430Z
       D. 15.0N 058.5W                D. 16.0N 061.0W
       E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z        E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT             F. SFC TO 10,000FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                       CDL


If this was already posted, sorry, I tried to check the posts from around midday today and didn't see anything.

Kyle,at 12:10 PM EDT Derek posted it on page 7.But that ok that you posted that as many may not have seen it.

[WindRunner]

Oh, it was a link to it, that's why I didn't see it. Thanks for pointing that out . . . and I agree with Derek's comment, it seems unlikely that these flights will go out as scheduled.