Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Dean4Storms]

18Z GFDL begins the intialization with a closed off low and takes it further west again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z GFDL begins the intialization with a closed off low and takes it further west again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I was just going to post something about that... it is interesting cause it wasn't even picking up on it yesterday for the most part.

[Dean4Storms]

18Z GFDL begins the intialization with a closed off low and takes it further west again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I was just going to post something about that... it is interesting cause it wasn't even picking up on it yesterday for the most part.

We'll just have to sit back and watch it, nobody can say for 100% certainty whether it will develop or not.

[Scorpion]

GFDL is getting pretty aggressive. IMO 99L has a better chance now.

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL is getting pretty aggressive. IMO 99L has a better chance now.

Yep, when a model starts showing some consistancy it gets more of my attention.

Especially if it has it heading in your general direction.

[HurricaneHunter914]

IMO this is going to be the sacrifice wave that will cause the SAL to die down for the the wave near Africa.

[Scorpion]

SAL is already dying significantly. Great news for our new wave.

[wxman57]

This link shows there is a low level circulation.. the pass made it perfectly over it.
http://tinyurl.com/of6r5

Plus the center is in between bouys, 41101 and 41040

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

13.5 N and 53W apprx.

Am I missing something? I don't see anything about winds in the link, and the buoys (far apart) are showing relatively bland wind directions (SE and E). Image appearance suggests a circ but doesn't clinch it.

Good, it's not just me. All I saw was a satellite image on that link. However, QuikSCAT imagery a few hours ago shows nothing but an open wave:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99ds.png

Buoys, as you noted, are 300nm apart in that region. I did find a ship in the area at 00Z. Here's a surface analysis of the region:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lc.gif

[curtadams]

you mean NE and SE

Sorry. even blander directions, though - NE is the trades.

and that image is a microwave image

Righto. Showing rainfall, right? But not winds.

[storms in NC]

Thanks. I was looking for a new loop. I couldn't see much on the floaters any more. By George I think you may tbe right. But everyone saying it was dead

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like convection is forming over area of greatest cirulation near 13-13.5. This could develop over the next few days. Is it a sure thing no not at all...The enviroment doe's not look to bad.-

[Aric Dunn]

IMO this is going to be the sacrifice wave that will cause the SAL to die down for the the wave near Africa.

the sacracfice wave is the typically the last wave in a series of waves not the first
the last wave creates the boundry

[Dean4Storms]

Great, now we got Suicide Waves!

[Stormavoider]

Surfs up

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[curtadams]

However, QuikSCAT imagery a few hours ago shows nothing but an open wave:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99ds.png

Buoys, as you noted, are 300nm apart in that region. I did find a ship in the area at 00Z. Here's a surface analysis of the region:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lc.gif

Right, I'm saying there's a storm-relative circulation, not an earth-relative one. There is an appropriate warp to the winds although it's weak and certainly less than I expected from sats. 5-10mph or so. Definitionally it's certainly an open wave but the weak relative circulation makes it more susceptible to development than most.

[Aric Dunn]

This link shows there is a low level circulation.. the pass made it perfectly over it.
http://tinyurl.com/of6r5

Plus the center is in between bouys, 41101 and 41040

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

13.5 N and 53W apprx.

Am I missing something? I don't see anything about winds in the link, and the buoys (far apart) are showing relatively bland wind directions (SE and E). Image appearance suggests a circ but doesn't clinch it.

Good, it's not just me. All I saw was a satellite image on that link. However, QuikSCAT imagery a few hours ago shows nothing but an open wave:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_99ds.png

Buoys, as you noted, are 300nm apart in that region. I did find a ship in the area at 00Z. Here's a surface analysis of the region:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lc.gif

just a satellite image??

NRL Image

[SouthFloridawx]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 16N. A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N53W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
52W-58W. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

[Aric Dunn]

you mean NE and SE

Sorry. even blander directions, though - NE is the trades.

and that image is a microwave image

Righto. Showing rainfall, right? But not winds.

yes and shows banding .. if you know what your looking at

[wxman57]

just a satellite image??

That's correct, the link you just re-posted goes to a satellite image. There are no surface winds on that image. That web site DOES have some satellite image with CLOUD winds, but those clouds aren't at the surface.

Come on, guys, wishing this thing to develop won't work. Time to go watch a movie. Keep looking for swirls through the night.

NRL Image

[curtadams]

Thanks. I was looking for a new loop. I couldn't see much on the floaters any more. By George I think you may tbe right. But everyone saying it was dead

There's some manic-depressive behavior here - dead to already Chris and back again. I wouldn't read too much into it. I've been seeing pretty much the same thing for two days - a nice little low facing marginal conditions and surrounded by a whole lot of other activity. Although the pros see different from me - and are more pessimistic - they haven't been manic-depressive either.