Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[cheezyWXguy]

i did...conditions should become favorable in about 2 days if it stays on a w-wnw track

[Derek Ortt]

its likely to run into shear as it moves farther west. Conditions should not be all that favorable

[curtadams]

I still say it looks decent and will pop if it hits favorable conditions On the last few day images of the RGB loop you see a distinct low-cloud cyclonic circulation at 12N 54W. This is distinct from the messy "center" slightly to its NE where the outflow is - that's hopelessly disorganized. After 2 days I'm quite confident there's a surface storm-relative circulation (not necessarily earth-relative) underneath. It's been in bad conditions (SAL mostly) and hasn't been a big player, so it seemed to disappear under that huge squall line this morning and its aftermath (what was that, anyway?) But it's been underneath the whole time. Add some brisk convection to the center and you'll have a TD in 6-12 hours. It may never see good conditions for all the usual climatological reasons but it's ready to go. I notice there's been another burst at 12N 53W and I'd say there's a substantial (say 25%) chance this burst will carry it to TD tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB admitted tonight that no bouy evidence near this wave indicates that this is a TD (like he thought). He says it still has to be watched though, because this is surviving an area where all other waves have died, and because 2 runs of the GFDL have shown development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A few days ago there was but not today...Still a nice MLC with it. I would not stop watching it.

[Lowpressure]

JB admitted tonight that no bouy evidence near this wave indicates that this is a TD (like he thought). He says it still has to be watched though, because this is surviving an area where all other waves have died, and because 2 runs of the GFDL have shown development.

JB eating crow once again after sounding the alarm- this was never a TD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB admitted tonight that no bouy evidence near this wave indicates that this is a TD (like he thought). He says it still has to be watched though, because this is surviving an area where all other waves have died, and because 2 runs of the GFDL have shown development.

JB eating crow once again after sounding the alarm- this was never a TD.

I actually think this WAS a TD a few days ago, but I agree that it is not right now. As for JB eating crow "again", I think that this is probably the only time so far this season for him.

[Dean4Storms]

Chance of developing around 10% and that is a stretch.


No persistant deep convection, no widespread model support, dry air, marginally favorable UL conditions, no LLC at present, outflows common and not moving into anything much more favorable in the near term of 2 days.

[Lowpressure]

JB admitted tonight that no bouy evidence near this wave indicates that this is a TD (like he thought). He says it still has to be watched though, because this is surviving an area where all other waves have died, and because 2 runs of the GFDL have shown development.

JB eating crow once again after sounding the alarm- this was never a TD.

I actually think this WAS a TD a few days ago, but I agree that it is not right now. As for JB eating crow "again", I think that this is probably the only time so far this season for him.

JB has a pretty good history in not only TS but some Winter storms as well. He just really tends to go for the alarm in too many cases. All in all not very impressed with his track record. I feel there are several on this board with much better records.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't write it off - remember the disorganized mess that Katrina grew out of. I'm not sayin its anything like or will be like that monster but organization wise, it looks better now than this morning. Some dry air is inhibiting development but that is gradually mixing out. Sea surface temps increasingly warm as it moves W-NW and the GFDL develops it now for 3 or 4 succesive runs. All it needs is to wrap some convection around a center and you have a TD. Long-range GFS & GFDL puts the system near S FL next Sat or Sun.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[wxman57]

I still say it looks decent and will pop if it hits favorable conditions On the last few day images of the RGB loop you see a distinct low-cloud cyclonic circulation at 12N 54W. This is distinct from the messy "center" slightly to its NE where the outflow is - that's hopelessly disorganized. After 2 days I'm quite confident there's a surface storm-relative circulation (not necessarily earth-relative) underneath. It's been in bad conditions (SAL mostly) and hasn't been a big player, so it seemed to disappear under that huge squall line this morning and its aftermath (what was that, anyway?) But it's been underneath the whole time. Add some brisk convection to the center and you'll have a TD in 6-12 hours. It may never see good conditions for all the usual climatological reasons but it's ready to go. I notice there's been another burst at 12N 53W and I'd say there's a substantial (say 25%) chance this burst will carry it to TD tonight.

One problem with your conclusion is that the area near 12N/54W does not show any low clouds, just mid to upper-level cloud features. You're looking at the top of the system, not the surface.

[ROCK]

I wouldn't write it off - remember the disorganized mess that Katrina grew out of. I'm not sayin its anything like or will be like that monster but organization wise, it looks better now than this morning. Some dry air is inhibiting development but that is gradually mixing out. Sea surface temps increasingly warm as it moves W-NW and the GFDL develops it now for 3 or 4 succesive runs. All it needs is to wrap some convection around a center and you have a TD. Long-range GFS & GFDL puts the system near S FL next Sat or Sun.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

I believe that was ex-TD10 that she came out of and yes, it shouldn't be written off just yet but it does have a lot of obstacles to get through in the near future.


BTW- I have seen 25+ pages of it shouldnt develope, it should develope. Why don't someone create an approved poll for this and settle this debate.

[cheezyWXguy]

good idea

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 0000 060731 1200 060801 0000 060801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 54.0W 13.6N 56.1W 14.1N 58.1W 14.5N 60.1W
BAMM 13.0N 54.0W 14.1N 56.3W 15.0N 58.4W 15.9N 60.5W
A98E 13.0N 54.0W 14.2N 56.7W 15.2N 59.1W 15.9N 61.6W
LBAR 13.0N 54.0W 14.1N 56.8W 15.2N 59.5W 16.0N 62.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 0000 060803 0000 060804 0000 060805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 62.1W 16.0N 65.4W 17.3N 67.8W 18.5N 70.5W
BAMM 16.8N 62.4W 18.2N 65.5W 19.5N 68.1W 20.7N 71.4W
A98E 16.4N 64.0W 18.0N 68.4W 19.6N 72.7W 21.4N 76.9W
LBAR 16.8N 64.9W 18.1N 69.9W 19.8N 73.7W 21.5N 78.1W
SHIP 33KTS 41KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 33KTS 41KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 51.3W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 48.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z BAM Models.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the nhc has it pretty well proged...Around 13 north with east wind on the buoy to the north...Convection is starting to fire over the expected center. So I its still needs to be watched...

[vacanechaser]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 0000 060731 1200 060801 0000 060801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 54.0W 13.6N 56.1W 14.1N 58.1W 14.5N 60.1W
BAMM 13.0N 54.0W 14.1N 56.3W 15.0N 58.4W 15.9N 60.5W
A98E 13.0N 54.0W 14.2N 56.7W 15.2N 59.1W 15.9N 61.6W
LBAR 13.0N 54.0W 14.1N 56.8W 15.2N 59.5W 16.0N 62.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 0000 060803 0000 060804 0000 060805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 62.1W 16.0N 65.4W 17.3N 67.8W 18.5N 70.5W
BAMM 16.8N 62.4W 18.2N 65.5W 19.5N 68.1W 20.7N 71.4W
A98E 16.4N 64.0W 18.0N 68.4W 19.6N 72.7W 21.4N 76.9W
LBAR 16.8N 64.9W 18.1N 69.9W 19.8N 73.7W 21.5N 78.1W
SHIP 33KTS 41KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 33KTS 41KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 51.3W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 48.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z BAM Models.

thank you sir... could find those for some reason tonight... lol

looks like the ships is pretty consistant...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[SouthFloridawx]

I think the nhc has it pretty well proged...Around 13 north with east wind on the buoy to the north...Convection is starting to fire over the expected center. So I its still needs to be watched...

This link shows there is a low level circulation.. the pass made it perfectly over it.
http://tinyurl.com/of6r5

Plus the center is in between bouys, 41101 and 41040

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

13.5 N and 53W apprx.

Thanks to Aric Dunn passing the image along to me.

[curtadams]

One problem with your conclusion is that the area near 12N/54W does not show any low clouds, just mid to upper-level cloud features. You're looking at the top of the system, not the surface.

Maybe I should have posted the C Atl link - they haven't moved the floater and the system is partly off it. You can see yellow clouds - low as well as can be determined from sat - revolving cyclonically around the area.

I'll also point out this thing has seriously twisted the ICTZ, and that's not done just with mid-level circulation.

[curtadams]

This link shows there is a low level circulation.. the pass made it perfectly over it.
http://tinyurl.com/of6r5

Plus the center is in between bouys, 41101 and 41040

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

13.5 N and 53W apprx.

Am I missing something? I don't see anything about winds in the link, and the buoys (far apart) are showing relatively bland wind directions (SE and E). Image appearance suggests a circ but doesn't clinch it.

[Aric Dunn]

This link shows there is a low level circulation.. the pass made it perfectly over it.
http://tinyurl.com/of6r5

Plus the center is in between bouys, 41101 and 41040

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

13.5 N and 53W apprx.

Am I missing something? I don't see anything about winds in the link, and the buoys (far apart) are showing relatively bland wind directions (SE and E). Image appearance suggests a circ but doesn't clinch it.

you mean NE and SE

and that image is a microwave image