Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Opal storm]

At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

99L may not develop but I'm sure it will ramp up before then.IMHO,I think it's starting to ramp up right now,wave train is really starting to kick up.Have patience.

[Pearl River]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...
BUT STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

[wxman57]

Neither system is likely to develop

There is simply no organization to either

And I would definitely agree. It's interesting to observe the posts on this forum. The vast majority of people here appear to want something to develop very badly. Every curving cloud band is a candidate. We have one new person here that posted a "hi" thread yesterday that stated he/she loves storms and hopes the east coast gets hit by one. That group thinks 99L is looking better-organized this afternoon. There is a small percentage of people here that are afraid of hurricanes and just want to get some good information as early as possible.

As I look at 99L this afternoon, I'm relieved that it is looking less organized than it was yesterday or the day before. There are clear outflow boundaries eminating northward from collapsed convection that had been near 13-14N/52W. Convergence is shifting southwest of that area in a line of squalls extending east-west. When you see outflow boundaries moving away from collapsed convection and elongating squalls out ahead of a system, that is NOT a sign of increased organization.

Realistically, this disturbance is moving into a region that has only a few small pockets of favorable upper-level winds. Look at the 2 waves that moved through the eastern Caribbean ahead of 99L. Both are being ripped apart by shear. The same fate will most likely await 99L in the next few days. It'll probably flare up as it interacts with the TUTT in the north-central Caribbean in 3 days or so, but then convection will probably diminish. There may be a slight chance of development by next weekend if the disturbance survives and reaches the western Caribbean or southern Gulf intact.

Now, I admit that I have my own biases. I would be perfectly happy if Beryl was the last storm of the 2006 season. Even though I'm prepared to do it, I'd like to NOT have to work 12-16 hours a day every single day for the next 2 1/2 months. I have clients in the Gulf of Mexico with $1 BILLION projects that need a 7-10 day guarantee of no hurricane activity in the Gulf over the next 2-3 weeks. The wrong word from me could cost them more money than I could make in 100 lifetimes. But I try to just look at the facts and give my own analysis of a system's potential.

That said, 99L may have some potential for development. I'd estimate 1-5% over the next 2 days, dropping after then, then perhaps increasing to 10-15% in 5-6 days. That's a pretty high percentage it won't develop.

[Andrew92]

At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

Why do you say that? Things go downhill quickly... All we need is 99L to develop tomorrow, then the Caribbean system organize and thats pretty active to me.

Remember August is here.

No it's still July 30. Yes, August is only two days away. But still, even if 99L develops (which I don't think it will), the real action still has not occurred. Further research of when the first CV storm developed each year finds this over the last 10 years:

1996: Bertha in July. But Edouard, the next CV storm, didn't become a storm until August 22.
1997: Erika in September.
1998: Bonnie in mid to late August.
1999: Cindy in mid to late August.
2000: Alberto in the first part of August.
2001: Erin early in September (I don't consider Chantal a CV storm, since it wasn't named until it reached the Caribbean).
2002: Dolly in late August.
2003: Fabian in late August.
2004: Danielle in mid-August.
2005: Emily in July, followed by Irene in early August. Actually, the only CV storm to really get going east of 50 longitude was Maria.

Trend: CV storms, on average, usually start forming after August 15 each year.

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

99L may not develop but I'm sure it will ramp up before then.IMHO,I think it's starting to ramp up right now,wave train is really starting to kick up.Have patience.

Yep, it certainly will. I had predicted 1-2 named storms by the end of July, 4-5 in August, 5-6 in September, and 2-3 in October/November. Over the next week or two, we should see activity really heat up in the Tropical Atlantic.

[BOPPA]

Thank you thank you thank you - for your level headed post. I am one of those
people who is "afraid" of hurricanes, and come here to get the most reliable and
earliest news of storms that is possible.

This is a great site and some very intelligent people post here - my hope too
is that Beryl is the last we see. Now in reality I know that will not be, so just
want to be as informed as possible to help with decisions that have to be made.

Thanks again

[hicksta]

Good post bro, i dont feel like going threw another 27 hour evac and wondering if i will have a house to come back to or even a job.

Neither system is likely to develop

There is simply no organization to either

And I would definitely agree. It's interesting to observe the posts on this forum. The vast majority of people here appear to want something to develop very badly. Every curving cloud band is a candidate. We have one new person here that posted a "hi" thread yesterday that stated he/she loves storms and hopes the east coast gets hit by one. That group thinks 99L is looking better-organized this afternoon. There is a small percentage of people here that are afraid of hurricanes and just want to get some good information as early as possible.

As I look at 99L this afternoon, I'm relieved that it is looking less organized than it was yesterday or the day before. There are clear outflow boundaries eminating northward from collapsed convection that had been near 13-14N/52W. Convergence is shifting southwest of that area in a line of squalls extending east-west. When you see outflow boundaries moving away from collapsed convection and elongating squalls out ahead of a system, that is NOT a sign of increased organization.

Realistically, this disturbance is moving into a region that has only a few small pockets of favorable upper-level winds. Look at the 2 waves that moved through the eastern Caribbean ahead of 99L. Both are being ripped apart by shear. The same fate will most likely await 99L in the next few days. It'll probably flare up as it interacts with the TUTT in the north-central Caribbean in 3 days or so, but then convection will probably diminish. There may be a slight chance of development by next weekend if the disturbance survives and reaches the western Caribbean or southern Gulf intact.

Now, I admit that I have my own biases. I would be perfectly happy if Beryl was the last storm of the 2006 season. Even though I'm prepared to do it, I'd like to NOT have to work 12-16 hours a day every single day for the next 2 1/2 months. I have clients in the Gulf of Mexico with $1 BILLION projects that need a 7-10 day guarantee of no hurricane activity in the Gulf over the next 2-3 weeks. The wrong word from me could cost them more money than I could make in 100 lifetimes. But I try to just look at the facts and give my own analysis of a system's potential.

That said, 99L may have some potential for development. I'd estimate 1-5% over the next 2 days, dropping after then, then perhaps increasing to 10-15% in 5-6 days. That's a pretty high percentage it won't develop.

[wxmann_91]

Neither system is likely to develop

There is simply no organization to either

And I would definitely agree. It's interesting to observe the posts on this forum. The vast majority of people here appear to want something to develop very badly. Every curving cloud band is a candidate. We have one new person here that posted a "hi" thread yesterday that stated he/she loves storms and hopes the east coast gets hit by one. That group thinks 99L is looking better-organized this afternoon. There is a small percentage of people here that are afraid of hurricanes and just want to get some good information as early as possible.

As I look at 99L this afternoon, I'm relieved that it is looking less organized than it was yesterday or the day before. There are clear outflow boundaries eminating northward from collapsed convection that had been near 13-14N/52W. Convergence is shifting southwest of that area in a line of squalls extending east-west. When you see outflow boundaries moving away from collapsed convection and elongating squalls out ahead of a system, that is NOT a sign of increased organization.

Realistically, this disturbance is moving into a region that has only a few small pockets of favorable upper-level winds. Look at the 2 waves that moved through the eastern Caribbean ahead of 99L. Both are being ripped apart by shear. The same fate will most likely await 99L in the next few days. It'll probably flare up as it interacts with the TUTT in the north-central Caribbean in 3 days or so, but then convection will probably diminish. There may be a slight chance of development by next weekend if the disturbance survives and reaches the western Caribbean or southern Gulf intact.

Now, I admit that I have my own biases. I would be perfectly happy if Beryl was the last storm of the 2006 season. Even though I'm prepared to do it, I'd like to NOT have to work 12-16 hours a day every single day for the next 2 1/2 months. I have clients in the Gulf of Mexico with $1 BILLION projects that need a 7-10 day guarantee of no hurricane activity in the Gulf over the next 2-3 weeks. The wrong word from me could cost them more money than I could make in 100 lifetimes. But I try to just look at the facts and give my own analysis of a system's potential.

That said, 99L may have some potential for development. I'd estimate 1-5% over the next 2 days, dropping after then, then perhaps increasing to 10-15% in 5-6 days. That's a pretty high percentage it won't develop.

Great post wxman57, and that's probably why your one of my favorite mets here.

Ya know, I was one of those people you were talking about in the first paragraph last year. Boy, have I learned a lot since then!

[Andrew92]

Neither system is likely to develop

There is simply no organization to either

And I would definitely agree. It's interesting to observe the posts on this forum. The vast majority of people here appear to want something to develop very badly. Every curving cloud band is a candidate. We have one new person here that posted a "hi" thread yesterday that stated he/she loves storms and hopes the east coast gets hit by one. That group thinks 99L is looking better-organized this afternoon. There is a small percentage of people here that are afraid of hurricanes and just want to get some good information as early as possible.

As I look at 99L this afternoon, I'm relieved that it is looking less organized than it was yesterday or the day before. There are clear outflow boundaries eminating northward from collapsed convection that had been near 13-14N/52W. Convergence is shifting southwest of that area in a line of squalls extending east-west. When you see outflow boundaries moving away from collapsed convection and elongating squalls out ahead of a system, that is NOT a sign of increased organization.

Realistically, this disturbance is moving into a region that has only a few small pockets of favorable upper-level winds. Look at the 2 waves that moved through the eastern Caribbean ahead of 99L. Both are being ripped apart by shear. The same fate will most likely await 99L in the next few days. It'll probably flare up as it interacts with the TUTT in the north-central Caribbean in 3 days or so, but then convection will probably diminish. There may be a slight chance of development by next weekend if the disturbance survives and reaches the western Caribbean or southern Gulf intact.

Now, I admit that I have my own biases. I would be perfectly happy if Beryl was the last storm of the 2006 season. Even though I'm prepared to do it, I'd like to NOT have to work 12-16 hours a day every single day for the next 2 1/2 months. I have clients in the Gulf of Mexico with $1 BILLION projects that need a 7-10 day guarantee of no hurricane activity in the Gulf over the next 2-3 weeks. The wrong word from me could cost them more money than I could make in 100 lifetimes. But I try to just look at the facts and give my own analysis of a system's potential.

That said, 99L may have some potential for development. I'd estimate 1-5% over the next 2 days, dropping after then, then perhaps increasing to 10-15% in 5-6 days. That's a pretty high percentage it won't develop.

I agree with the concensus so far that this is a great post, Wxman57 (if not the best I've read this season yet). I'll admit that yes, I do get excited like a lot of the other amateurs do when something develops, which I might lightly show here too. But at the same time, when I look at seasons like the last two, I really wouldn't mind having no more storms occur this year or ever. I've learned a lot from people like you on this message board, including being patient before the "real" season kicks into gear.

Say what you guys will, but I think we will have no more than ONE Cape Verde storm before I go back to college on August 19 (I'm not even totally sold on that, either).

-Andrew92

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice MLC developing at 14 north/52 west. With convectoin organizing over it...Nice shape overall...We will see if it can get a LLC to the surface.

[Opal storm]

Neither system is likely to develop

There is simply no organization to either

And I would definitely agree. It's interesting to observe the posts on this forum. The vast majority of people here appear to want something to develop very badly. Every curving cloud band is a candidate. We have one new person here that posted a "hi" thread yesterday that stated he/she loves storms and hopes the east coast gets hit by one. That group thinks 99L is looking better-organized this afternoon. There is a small percentage of people here that are afraid of hurricanes and just want to get some good information as early as possible.

As I look at 99L this afternoon, I'm relieved that it is looking less organized than it was yesterday or the day before. There are clear outflow boundaries eminating northward from collapsed convection that had been near 13-14N/52W. Convergence is shifting southwest of that area in a line of squalls extending east-west. When you see outflow boundaries moving away from collapsed convection and elongating squalls out ahead of a system, that is NOT a sign of increased organization.

Realistically, this disturbance is moving into a region that has only a few small pockets of favorable upper-level winds. Look at the 2 waves that moved through the eastern Caribbean ahead of 99L. Both are being ripped apart by shear. The same fate will most likely await 99L in the next few days. It'll probably flare up as it interacts with the TUTT in the north-central Caribbean in 3 days or so, but then convection will probably diminish. There may be a slight chance of development by next weekend if the disturbance survives and reaches the western Caribbean or southern Gulf intact.

Now, I admit that I have my own biases. I would be perfectly happy if Beryl was the last storm of the 2006 season. Even though I'm prepared to do it, I'd like to NOT have to work 12-16 hours a day every single day for the next 2 1/2 months. I have clients in the Gulf of Mexico with $1 BILLION projects that need a 7-10 day guarantee of no hurricane activity in the Gulf over the next 2-3 weeks. The wrong word from me could cost them more money than I could make in 100 lifetimes. But I try to just look at the facts and give my own analysis of a system's potential.

That said, 99L may have some potential for development. I'd estimate 1-5% over the next 2 days, dropping after then, then perhaps increasing to 10-15% in 5-6 days. That's a pretty high percentage it won't develop.

Great post wxman57, and that's probably why your one of my favorite mets here.

Ya know, I was one of those people you were talking about in the first paragraph last year. Boy, have I learned a lot since then!

I use to be one of those people too.But then after going through Ivan and Dennis and then seeing what Katrina did, hurricanes just make me sick now.But I still like talking about them and tracking them,they are amazing.I just don't want them to come my way or anybody's way,I have seen enough devestation up close.

[TS Zack]

At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

Why do you say that? Things go downhill quickly... All we need is 99L to develop tomorrow, then the Caribbean system organize and thats pretty active to me.

Remember August is here.

No it's still July 30. Yes, August is only two days away. But still, even if 99L develops (which I don't think it will), the real action still has not occurred. Further research of when the first CV storm developed each year finds this over the last 10 years:

1996: Bertha in July. But Edouard, the next CV storm, didn't become a storm until August 22.
1997: Erika in September.
1998: Bonnie in mid to late August.
1999: Cindy in mid to late August.
2000: Alberto in the first part of August.
2001: Erin early in September (I don't consider Chantal a CV storm, since it wasn't named until it reached the Caribbean).
2002: Dolly in late August.
2003: Fabian in late August.
2004: Danielle in mid-August.
2005: Emily in July, followed by Irene in early August. Actually, the only CV storm to really get going east of 50 longitude was Maria.

Trend: CV storms, on average, usually start forming after August 15 each year.

-Andrew92

I was not specifically talking about Cape Verde systems. The past two systems in the Atlantic have been frontal systems which may continue if these troughs keep coming South. Once 99L gets into the Caribbean I wouldn't call it a Cape Verde storm. Plus, I don't see it developing until it makes its way into the Caribbean.

[HurricaneHunter914]

At least 99L finally has some dark oranges over it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[Andrew92]

At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.

Why do you say that? Things go downhill quickly... All we need is 99L to develop tomorrow, then the Caribbean system organize and thats pretty active to me.

Remember August is here.

No it's still July 30. Yes, August is only two days away. But still, even if 99L develops (which I don't think it will), the real action still has not occurred. Further research of when the first CV storm developed each year finds this over the last 10 years:

1996: Bertha in July. But Edouard, the next CV storm, didn't become a storm until August 22.
1997: Erika in September.
1998: Bonnie in mid to late August.
1999: Cindy in mid to late August.
2000: Alberto in the first part of August.
2001: Erin early in September (I don't consider Chantal a CV storm, since it wasn't named until it reached the Caribbean).
2002: Dolly in late August.
2003: Fabian in late August.
2004: Danielle in mid-August.
2005: Emily in July, followed by Irene in early August. Actually, the only CV storm to really get going east of 50 longitude was Maria.

Trend: CV storms, on average, usually start forming after August 15 each year.

-Andrew92

I was not specifically talking about Cape Verde systems. The past two systems in the Atlantic have been frontal systems which may continue if these troughs keep coming South. Once 99L gets into the Caribbean I wouldn't call it a Cape Verde storm. Plus, I don't see it developing until it makes its way into the Caribbean.

OK, thanks for clarifying. However, I will say that I don't even see it developing in the Caribbean. Too much shear, which is normal for this time year as well anyway.

If it makes it to the EPAC intact, it could become interesting there though......

-Andrew92

[HUC]

TS Zack wrote:
sponger wrote:
At this rate we are likely going to wait until Mid to late August to see activity ramp up.


Why do you say that? Things go downhill quickly... All we need is 99L to develop tomorrow, then the Caribbean system organize and thats pretty active to me.

Remember August is here.


No it's still July 30. Yes, August is only two days away. But still, even if 99L develops (which I don't think it will), the real action still has not occurred. Further research of when the first CV storm developed each year finds this over the last 10 years:

1996: Bertha in July. But Edouard, the next CV storm, didn't become a storm until August 22.
1997: Erika in September.
1998: Bonnie in mid to late August.
1999: Cindy in mid to late August.
2000: Alberto in the first part of August.
2001: Erin early in September (I don't consider Chantal a CV storm, since it wasn't named until it reached the Caribbean).
2002: Dolly in late August.
2003: Fabian in late August.
2004: Danielle in mid-August.
2005: Emily in July, followed by Irene in early August. Actually, the only CV storm to really get going east of 50 longitude was Maria.

Trend: CV storms, on average, usually start forming after August 15 each year.

-Andrew92

Yes,we are jusyt in the begining of the season,and i know that the CV season start around mid August...

[MGC]

I'm with 57, conditions are just not that favorable. Good! I don't see any chance the disturbance across the Greater Antillies is going to do anything with that ULL nearby. 99L is looking worst every day and conditions ahead of 99L don't look all that great for development. Glad that things are quiet and we can put the freak show of 2005 behind us.......MGC

[Weatherfreak000]

This thing is NOT going to develop. I truly don't understand why after all of what we're seen we're still talking about this.



I mean don't you guys remember what developing storms LOOK like? Go back to 90L. Go back last year. Go see some REAL looking developing systems. Go read about the environmental conditions, don't you remember what conditions brought Alberto? They were practically perfect and that thing still BARELY looked like a storm.


Come on people, we need to sit back and notice something and that's that every little blob in the Atlantic doesn't develop. This doesn't mean that there are bad conditions out there for development it just means that overall it's JUST NOT HAPPENING YET.


Now I know your saying don't come in here and post if your gonna talk negative but realistically, what does 99L have going for it. Someone please break this down for me. WHY is it gonna develop, describe the environmental conditions and why there are gonna be favorable for development. The simple answer to this is you can't.


So, that's pretty much it. I contest anyone to break down to me why this invest will be developing. Every pro-met here is describing bad conditions ahead of 99L, NHC only gives it a "Marginal" shot, Jeff Masters thinks development is unlikely. Case closed.

[Grease Monkey]

Just because there hasn't been a so called "freak show" in July doesn't mean that this season can't match 2005 the remainder of the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has become a little better organized over the last 6 hours...With a MLC at 14 north/52...With convection poping over it....It has a ncie shape to it...So yes it should be watched.


Also I feel that storms are always going to happen in rebuilding a 100 billion dollars on the gufl coast might not be a good idea. But that is just what I'v picked up from the last few years. Just saying my peace.

[Derek Ortt]

This is not better organized

Convection is starting to take a linear shape now and is nowhere near the wave axis (there is no COC, not sure why it is even being mentioned of having one)