Wave in Central Caribbean

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rockyman
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#421 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 30, 2006 8:32 am

From 805AM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SHIFTED AND NOW COVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO STILL IS POSSIBLE. ALL
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOW ARE OVER THE WATERS TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALSO
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.
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hriverajr
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#422 Postby hriverajr » Sun Jul 30, 2006 9:18 am

That spin at 17.5 72 is from yesterday and is nothing. The picture below shows the areas of possible development. The one to the west is still on the wave axis and has a sharp wind field associated with it.

The one N of PR has an upper high developing over it and PR radar is looking better all the time. Plus the two buoys are showing calm winds on the S side...


Well I am gonna stick with my MLC for now. Maybe I am wrong, but we shall see.

Hector
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Thunder44
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#423 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:01 am

758
ABNT20 KNHC 301456
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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ROCK
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#424 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:14 am

Thunder44 wrote:758
ABNT20 KNHC 301456
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH




you know every time I read one of these I wonder if they will ever say " upper level winds ARE FAVORABLE for developement. They never say that....
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Stratosphere747
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#425 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:15 am

They say it quite often Rock....When they are favorable...;)
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#426 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:16 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:They say it quite often Rock....When they are favorable...;)


LOL...you took the words right out of my mouth! I remember many times last season reading that.
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#427 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:24 am

skysummit wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:They say it quite often Rock....When they are favorable...;)


LOL...you took the words right out of my mouth! I remember many times last season reading that.



just venting frustration.....here we are going into 1st week of Aug and nothing looking to promising yet...
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#428 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:28 am

I wish I was here this time during 2004. The frustration must have been insane.
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#429 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Jul 30, 2006 10:58 am

Is this an almost bare LLC? I am looking due north of the western tip of Hispaniola at about 19.5N

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Edit: Sorry eastern tip
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rockyman
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#430 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:04 am

Here's the website:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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#431 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:07 am

Or here for visible.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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#432 Postby rockyman » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:09 am

Hey...I see some vorticity mainly above the surface...but I can't make out an LLC...thanks for the tip! I'm going to keep watching this area :)
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#433 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:10 am

Scorpion wrote:I wish I was here this time during 2004. The frustration must have been insane.


You have no idea.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#434 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:22 am

The area north of the islands is looking good right now. If the upper low can ventilate the system instead of shearing it, then we could see some development over the next few days.
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#435 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Jul 30, 2006 1:23 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
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#436 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Jul 30, 2006 1:49 pm

What do you all think of this rotation just north of Hispaniola's eastern tip?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
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#437 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:04 pm

Seems that TAFB is giving this system more of chance to develop this afternoon:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST
AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
71W-80W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS... BUT AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
ENCHANTED ISLAND. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SAN JUAN REPORTED 2.78
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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#438 Postby Recurve » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:17 pm

Just watched the GOES IR loop; there are two frames where a comma-shaped swirl appears; it may be nonsense, but the satellite presents a picture like a mid-latitude low, an arching warm front to the right and a trailing cold/dry front on the left, with another low off to the northwest.

Has there been any mention of a low -- upper or other -- with this wave yet?

For me, this is now the one to watch. Don't like where the convection is heading.
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#439 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:17 pm

West wind and 1011mb pressure.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058&unit=E&tz=STN
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#440 Postby Recurve » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:27 pm

Stormavoider wrote:West wind and 1011mb pressure.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058&unit=E&tz=STN


Thanks for that.
The wind is clocking, low pressure to the north or east it seems.
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