Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[HURAKAN]

Do you see the massive outflow boundaries spitting on the north side? It just doesn't look as pathetic as it did at this time yesterday. Maybe tomorrow we might see something better.

Those words are just too deep to talk about this disturbance. When you talk about massive then hurricanes like Wilma and Katrina have to be involved!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

If it moves in the direction that the models are indicating, then it should encounter very strong wind shear that'll likely rip it apart. A more westerly track is likely, just like the wave ahead of it. Storms may flare up briefly just north of the eastern Caribbean Sea, but as the wave continues west, those storms will die out.

Thanks. Chris is not coming from this system. It's time to say, NEXT!!

Actually it's time to stop passing judgement and just let it do what it's going to do. As long as it's a wave and it's in the atlantic and it's late july it warrants being watched. I think I remember a certain td that degraded back into tw then as everyone was saying it was dead the northern end formed in the bahamas crossed florida and created the aguably the worst natural disaster in american history.

That was 2005, this is 2006. Current climatological conditions can't compare to what we had in 2005. Right now we have a very poorly organized tropical wave with a surface circulation and it's a day or so from the Caribbean Sea. I don't know if I got bored already of watching potential tropical waves that turn into nothing, but I just don't have much faith in this one. So far the Caribbean Sea has not been very hospitable to tropical waves, yes, they flare up but the atmosphere isn't favorable for a cyclone to develop. The best of the season is yet to come, and I'm willing to wait until mid to late August and September to see truly Cape Verde Systems and not some wannabees!!!

Then perhaps you shouldn't post in this thread if you don't think it's going to develop. You can say... hey it's not gonna develop, insert reason here~~~~> ________________. Then let us people who wanna talk about the wave and it's organization to do so and stop flooding the thread with endless reasons on why it's such a poor wave. Sorry but, I see way too much of this and I'm entitled to an opinion regardless. Anything can happen you never know.

[HurricaneHunter914]

THANK YOU SOUTHFLORIDAWX!

[Thunder44]

758
ABNT20 KNHC 301456
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT
525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[Extremeweatherguy]

758
ABNT20 KNHC 301456
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT
525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

This is the sentence people need to remember when they start to write this system off.

[cheezyWXguy]

does anybody have a link to a shear/ shear tendancy map?

[Thunder44]

does anybody have a link to a shear/ shear tendancy map?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[ROCK]

If it moves in the direction that the models are indicating, then it should encounter very strong wind shear that'll likely rip it apart. A more westerly track is likely, just like the wave ahead of it. Storms may flare up briefly just north of the eastern Caribbean Sea, but as the wave continues west, those storms will die out.

Thanks. Chris is not coming from this system. It's time to say, NEXT!!

Actually it's time to stop passing judgement and just let it do what it's going to do. As long as it's a wave and it's in the atlantic and it's late july it warrants being watched. I think I remember a certain td that degraded back into tw then as everyone was saying it was dead the northern end formed in the bahamas crossed florida and created the aguably the worst natural disaster in american history.

That was 2005, this is 2006. Current climatological conditions can't compare to what we had in 2005. Right now we have a very poorly organized tropical wave with a surface circulation and it's a day or so from the Caribbean Sea. I don't know if I got bored already of watching potential tropical waves that turn into nothing, but I just don't have much faith in this one. So far the Caribbean Sea has not been very hospitable to tropical waves, yes, they flare up but the atmosphere isn't favorable for a cyclone to develop. The best of the season is yet to come, and I'm willing to wait until mid to late August and September to see truly Cape Verde Systems and not some wannabees!!!

Then perhaps you shouldn't post in this thread if you don't think it's going to develop. You can say... hey it's not gonna develop, insert reason here~~~~> ________________. Then let us people who wanna talk about the wave and it's organization to do so and stop flooding the thread with endless reasons on why it's such a poor wave. Sorry but, I see way too much of this and I'm entitled to an opinion regardless. Anything can happen you never know.

amen to that....

[HURAKAN]

Maybe you were expecting me to say. "Hey, it's looking really good this morning. Banding features have improved dramatically, and convection seem to be increasing. They should start thinking about using tropical storm watches for the Lesser Antilles." But that's not what I think. The system has been struggling through shear and very dry air. Ahead of the system is another mass of very dry air (not good for development). Also, wind shear has been increasing over the last 24 hours east of the Antilles. Therefore, the only thing working in favor of this system are the warm sea-surface temperatures. Moreover, something that I have learned over the years is that a forecast 24 - 48 hours ahead is a forecast, and my forecast, and also the forecast of other pro-mets is for this system to struggle for its life. Now a forecast 72 - 120 + hours ahead, is not a forecast, it's a guess. Humanity doesn't have the ability at the moment to make accurate weather forecast three or more days ahead simply because there are too many factors to consider.

Over the next day or so I promise I won't post in the 99L thread, like I do many times I will become an observer. If Chris develops, great, I love to track storms, but that's not the feeling at the moment.

[SouthFloridawx]

That's what I'm saying, thanks for explaining why you think what you think instead of making a quick one liner saying its dead. I do like reading your posts and maybe you can be more detailed in the future.

[Scorpion]

The shear in the Caribbean is fine. Maybe when it comes up near Hispaniola it will encounter some bad shear, but not in the next 72 hours.

[jusforsean]

Let me make sure I am right in thinking that this is the "wave" that is suppose to bring us bad weather starting Wed???? Or is that the other one??

[Thunder44]

The shear in the Caribbean is fine. Maybe when it comes up near Hispaniola it will encounter some bad shear, but not in the next 72 hours.

Actually looking at some of the latest visible and water vapor loops there does appear to be some NW shear from an upper-level ridge to the west impacting the wave now.

[Dean4Storms]

Those banding features I see are outflows which do not represent a LLC.

[NDG]

The shear in the Caribbean is fine. Maybe when it comes up near Hispaniola it will encounter some bad shear, but not in the next 72 hours.

Actually looking at some of the latest visible and water vapor loops there does appear to be some NW shear from an upper-level ridge to the west impacting the wave now.

Yeah, but that's about it, the only hostile upper level environment is north of Hispaniola & Cuba, and it will be pulling out. Actually, most of the Caribbean, specially south of the Islands has very little wind shear, conditions are almost perfect.

[Dean4Storms]

Give this TW another day or two once it nears the Islands it will be in somewhat more favorable conditions. Right now the dry air is impeding its development.

[NDG]

Give this TW another day or two once it nears the Islands it will be in somewhat more favorable conditions. Right now the dry air is impeding its development.

Yeah, I agree, now that I looked at the water vapor loop, its getting some subsidence & dry air from its northwest.

[Scorpion]

The shear in the Caribbean is fine. Maybe when it comes up near Hispaniola it will encounter some bad shear, but not in the next 72 hours.

Actually looking at some of the latest visible and water vapor loops there does appear to be some NW shear from an upper-level ridge to the west impacting the wave now.

Shear tendency shows maybe 10-15 kts?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now 99L's biggest problem is dry air and sal, IF it can get into the caribbean then we'll probably see some organization and development.

['CaneFreak]

Its not predicted to go into the Carribean for a very long period there bud....its predicted to be in the carribean for all of 24-48 hours then it will probably hit land, then it will probably go north of the islands into the Bahamas...now, the real question is "What will environmental conditions be like at that time IF it makes it north of the islands?"