Wave in Central Caribbean

Opal storm · #401 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:10 pm

This could be another one of those blobs that explode and then poof...it's gone.Lets see if the convection re-fires tonight.

#402 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:54 pm

I don't see any development of this system for at least the next couple of days. The ULL over the Bahamas should prevent any rapid organization......MGC

Stratosphere747 · #403 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:30 pm

Opal storm wrote:This could be another one of those blobs that explode and then poof...it's gone.Lets see if the convection re-fires tonight.

Good point...

Have to admit, from a convection standpoint, it has maintained itself much longer than the previous few days.

After the last few years. Almost hate to mention the area it is heading.

NW Caribbean...

caneman · #404 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 6:32 pm

18Z GFS cranks this system up in the Central Bahamas

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #405 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 6:46 pm

In all of your opinions, which wave has a better chance of developing into something and is a bigger threat? This one or 99L?

caneman · #406 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 6:50 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:In all of your opinions, which wave has a better chance of developing into something and is a bigger threat? This one or 99L?

In My Opinion. This one as it has more moisture, better envioronment in the coming days and climatology on its side.

caneman · #407 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 6:53 pm

VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE

IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 63W-78W. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO THAT AREA AND A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

wxmann_91 · #408 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 7:04 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:In all of your opinions, which wave has a better chance of developing into something and is a bigger threat? This one or 99L?

Actually, 99L has a better chance of developing. This system is in a moist environment only because of its favorable position right now. An anticyclone to the southwest and a TUTT to the northwest is providing lots of UL divergence to aid thunderstorm formation, and shear is low RIGHT NOW. Problem is, its right over Hispaniola. Later, if the GFS is correct, it will move northward, putting it in a much drier environment. GFS is WAY overdoing the intensity of this system IMO.

Successive runs have weakened the TUTT and moved it northwest after this guy moves out. If so, 99L will have a favorable environment for development in the Caribbean. Not so sure if that will materialize, though.

ROCK · #409 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:14 pm

anyone notice a spin (MLC maybe) around 72W 18N on the visible? Maybe I am seeing things...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

HouTXmetro · #410 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:15 pm

ROCK wrote:I wouldnt be surprised if this complex holds together and fires up late tonight to see 90L invest up tommorow, IMO.

Well, looks like a new round of intense convection is fireing up. And the plot thickens!!!

#411 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:20 pm

ROCK wrote:anyone notice a spin (MLC maybe) around 72W 18N on the visible? Maybe I am seeing things...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Yeah, I started noticing it since earlier this evening, not too unusual to see MLC spin up in an area where deep convections once were with potentially tropical developing systems. Lets see what happens during maximum diurnal convection.

rockyman · #412 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:38 pm

From 10:30pm TWO:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...THE WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

#413 Postby **jasons2k** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 12:21 am

NDG wrote:
ROCK wrote:anyone notice a spin (MLC maybe) around 72W 18N on the visible? Maybe I am seeing things...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Yeah, I started noticing it since earlier this evening, not too unusual to see MLC spin up in an area where deep convections once were with potentially tropical developing systems. Lets see what happens during maximum diurnal convection.

Interesting -

Do Medium Zoom over the system, about 10-15 frames. Looks like a circulation is there. Can't wait to see the visibles tomorow AM:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

#414 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 1:11 am

I think what you are seeing is collapsing storms. If you notice to the South of that area the clouds are all still moving West. I did have to watch it closely for a while before I came to that conclusion though.

Thunder44 · #415 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 4:36 am

408
ABNT20 KNHC 300915
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

#416 Postby **hriverajr** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 5:44 am

Looks like some convection is forming right around the center of what appears to be at least a mid level circulation.

Hector

NCWeatherChic · #417 Postby **NCWeatherChic** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:01 am

ROCK wrote:anyone notice a spin (MLC maybe) around 72W 18N on the visible? Maybe I am seeing things...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I noticed it this morning as well. KEWL!

#418 Postby **hriverajr** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:03 am

NCWeatherChic wrote:
ROCK wrote:anyone notice a spin (MLC maybe) around 72W 18N on the visible? Maybe I am seeing things...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I noticed it this morning as well. KEWL!

Will have to wait to see visible pics. Its small but its there.... and is detached fromt he stuff to the east

#419 Postby **drezee** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:39 am

That spin at 17.5 72 is from yesterday and is nothing. The picture below shows the areas of possible development. The one to the west is still on the wave axis and has a sharp wind field associated with it.

The one N of PR has an upper high developing over it and PR radar is looking better all the time. Plus the two buoys are showing calm winds on the S side...

rockyman · #420 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:41 am

Haven't seen this posted...but MM5 shows a cyclone forming near the tip of the Yucatan on Thursday...could be the same system:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/18.html

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