Tropical Storm Fabio in EPAC

MiamiensisWx · #1 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:12 pm

A new INVEST has formed in the eastern Pacific as INVEST 94E has been classified, along with INVEST 95E.

Discuss here.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:14 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942006) ON 20060729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060729 1800 060730 0600 060730 1800 060731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 113.2W 12.6N 114.9W 12.5N 116.5W 12.5N 118.2W
BAMM 12.2N 113.2W 12.7N 114.7W 13.0N 116.2W 13.4N 117.9W
LBAR 12.2N 113.2W 12.6N 115.4W 12.8N 117.8W 13.1N 120.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800 060803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 120.1W 14.7N 124.8W 17.7N 129.6W 19.4N 132.9W
BAMM 13.9N 120.0W 15.8N 125.1W 18.1N 130.6W 19.7N 135.1W
LBAR 13.4N 123.4W 14.8N 129.4W 17.2N 135.0W 18.5N 138.1W
SHIP 42KTS 53KTS 56KTS 49KTS
DSHP 42KTS 53KTS 56KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 113.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 110.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 108.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WindRunner · #3 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:19 pm

Oh . . . guess we didn't have any threads on these two yet . . .

Looks like the EPAC is going to get another storm out of this. It has low-level inflow indicative of a LLC already, so maybe just some stronger and more organized convection will do the trick.

Scorpion · #4 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:43 pm

Ugh are you serious? :roll:

.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:56 pm

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

4:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook.

Cyclenall · #6 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:17 pm

This system looks very good convection and organization wise currently. I can't find a floater for this one but it looks great.

WmE · #7 Postby **WmE** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:45 pm

10 a.m PDT TWO

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 5:57 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 302252
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

If this system develops into a Tropical Storm the next name in the EPAC list is Fabio.

#9 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:06 pm

Beautiful little system. And I was sure it was the other one that had the better chance. Of course, that was yesterday.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:11 pm

On one little system go go go!!! Eastern Pacific rocks!

Scorpion · #11 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:16 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:On one little system go go go!!! Eastern Pacific rocks!

The EPAC needs a break

Cyclenall · #12 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:20 pm

First % chance of Invest 94E2 becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 88%
Tropical Storm: 80%
Hurricane: 30%
Major Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 4 Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

* The "2" after the Invest number means the 2nd time we have gotten to 94E this year.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #13 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 9:43 pm

I think this will be upgraded at 2am.

31/0000 UTC 14.2N 117.7W T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean

clfenwi · #14 Postby **clfenwi** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this will be upgraded at 2am.

31/0000 UTC 14.2N 117.7W T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean

All of the nice looking convection that was on the southern half of the low is all but gone for the moment... I don't foresee this being upgraded until tomorrow afternoon... although the 00Z models were initialized at 30 mph.

WHXX01 KMIA 310054
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942006) ON 20060731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 0000 060731 1200 060801 0000 060801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 118.0W 14.8N 119.9W 15.4N 121.8W 16.3N 124.0W
BAMM 14.4N 118.0W 14.8N 119.7W 15.2N 121.7W 16.0N 123.9W
LBAR 14.4N 118.0W 14.6N 120.1W 14.9N 122.7W 15.5N 125.5W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 0000 060803 0000 060804 0000 060805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 126.2W 19.6N 130.2W 20.5N 132.4W 20.3N 133.6W
BAMM 17.0N 126.3W 19.0N 131.1W 20.2N 134.4W 20.5N 136.1W
LBAR 16.5N 128.6W 18.4N 134.7W 20.1N 139.8W 23.4N 142.6W
SHIP 52KTS 47KTS 37KTS 31KTS
DSHP 52KTS 47KTS 37KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 118.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 115.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 114.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

bob rulz · #15 Postby **bob rulz** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 11:47 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:On one little system go go go!!! Eastern Pacific rocks!

The EPAC needs a break

Why's that? Storms in the East Pacific rarely ever affect land. I need some tropical activity to track or else I'll get bored!

Anyway, the satellite and infrared presentations have degenerated a little bit over the last few hours and it doesn't look that great anymore, but it still has a chance.

Epsilon_Fan · #16 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:49 am

It is blowing up again, I think this could be a TD or TS but it is not going to be in good conditions for long

clfenwi · #17 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:46 pm

As Epsilon_Fan noted, convection started to refire at around 11Z this morning...and has been sustained so far...Satellite Analysis Branch continues to rate it 2.0, while the Tropical Analysis and Forecast branch lowered their estimate...I think both groups will rate it 2.0 on the forthcoming round of estimates...if it sustains or improves upon its appearance for the next six hours we'll see the first advisory package at 11 PM EDT/ 8 PM PDT...

As for the future... it still has about 72 hours on the right side of the 26® C line...and it looks like it's getting away from the Easterly Shear of Doom, so it does have a window of opportunity...

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:49 pm

#7 is here!!!

clfenwi · #19 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:51 pm

Should of stuck with my original estimation
of upgrade time... models now say Tropical Depression Seven

WHXX01 KMIA 311844
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (EP072006) ON 20060731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 1800 060801 0600 060801 1800 060802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 121.4W 14.8N 123.4W 15.5N 125.6W 16.7N 128.2W
BAMM 14.5N 121.4W 14.7N 123.3W 15.1N 125.3W 16.1N 127.8W
LBAR 14.5N 121.4W 14.7N 123.4W 15.3N 125.8W 16.4N 128.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 1800 060803 1800 060804 1800 060805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 130.9W 19.7N 135.3W 20.8N 138.0W 21.3N 140.3W
BAMM 17.1N 130.4W 18.5N 135.2W 19.5N 138.7W 20.5N 142.4W
LBAR 17.6N 131.0W 19.3N 135.3W 20.5N 138.2W 22.4N 139.9W
SHIP 47KTS 43KTS 37KTS 32KTS
DSHP 47KTS 43KTS 37KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 121.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 119.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 116.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

SAB's estimate still hasn't been posted yet, but AFWA went with 2.5

TPPZ1 KGWC 311812
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF BAJA
B. 31/1731Z (55)
C. 14.6N/1
D. 121.4W/8
E. SIX/GOES11
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D1.0 18HRS -31/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: N/A

WEAVER

A shot of our newest Tropical Depression

Cyclenall · #20 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:53 pm

No surprise here. I should see the NHC give out their discussion around 4:45 pm EST.

Tropical Storm Fabio in EPAC

Tropical Storm Fabio in EPAC

storm

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