Wave in Central Caribbean
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HurricaneHunter914
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Something about this wave is telling its going to develop, even though I think it might disappate something is telling me its going to develop.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ConvergenceZone
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HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Something about this wave is telling its going to develop, even though I think it might disappate something is telling me its going to develop.
I think you very well could be correct. I mean we are getting into August, something's going to have to pop soon, so why not this one?
It seems like every day on this board I'm seeing more and more action and more and more waves talked about. It's kinda like the race cars at the Indy 500 reving up the engines before the flag goes down.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Derek Ortt
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Dean4Storms
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Nothing right now but convection due to convergence along a wave. Long Range Radar out of SJ shows no signs of any circulation. For this to develop it will have to sustain deep convection, fight off the shear and miss all the big islands in front of it. Don't see nothing for at least a couple of days.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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x-y-no
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For what it's worth, the NAM (not the best of tropical models, I know) has been taking this into the Yucatan as a closed low for several runs now.
The latest 12Z run has it emerging off the north coast of the Yucatan into the Gulf as a 1008mb low.
OTOH, the GFS continues to do nothing with it.
The latest 12Z run has it emerging off the north coast of the Yucatan into the Gulf as a 1008mb low.
OTOH, the GFS continues to do nothing with it.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Funny how the GFS forecasts areas of low pressure when there is nothing in the Atlantic and now that there is something in the Atlantic it shows nothing.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Extremeweatherguy
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caneman
Extremeweatherguy wrote:this is some of the most solid convection over a large area that I have seen all season:
Another interesting thing to note is the trailer arm extended well to the WNW of the system. Looks like ample supply of moisture so no problem there.
Last edited by caneman on Sat Jul 29, 2006 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MortisFL wrote:I'm running a loop of that now..persistence is the key.
As long as the ULL is spinning between SFla and the Bahamas, you can say bye-bye to development...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Eyewall
caneman wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:this is some of the most solid convection over a large area that I have seen all season:
Another interesting thing to note is the trailer arm extended well to the WNW of the system. Looks like ample supply of moisture so no problem there.
And to the ESE
looks like more convection starting up on the VIS loop
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caneman
hial2 wrote:MortisFL wrote:I'm running a loop of that now..persistence is the key.
As long as the ULL is spinning between SFla and the Bahamas, you can say bye-bye to development...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Maybe for now but not so when it reaches Western Cuba and Yuc area.
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x-y-no
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caneman wrote:hial2 wrote:MortisFL wrote:I'm running a loop of that now..persistence is the key.
As long as the ULL is spinning between SFla and the Bahamas, you can say bye-bye to development...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Maybe for now but not so when it reaches Western Cuba and Yuc area.
Even then, the upper air conditions forecast by the global models don't look too conducive to development. But I don't take that as definite - I've seen the models bust on upper air patterns a lot of times.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Right now all we have to worry about is rain from this system.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Hopefully shear won't get to this system but then again it is surronded at the north by high shear
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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