Wave in Central Caribbean

[boca]

This area looks alot better organized at least with convection its north enough in latitude that if it moves due west it would seek thru the yucatan channel and be a problem for the Gomers. Lets hope that doesn't happen.

[KatDaddy]

Looking more and more like both tropical disturbances will be Gulf bound. Lets hope for no significant development as these systems move across the GOM. The central Caribbean wave is look a little more organized this morning with a possible very weak circulation. You can the low level flow via clouds streaming into the convection from the SE on the SE side of convection as well as clouds pushing off to the E on the W side of the convection. It could just be the mean flow across the central Caribbean. Very hard to tell and probably reading more into than I should.

[Stratosphere747]

Have a feeling the TWO will become a bit more focused on this system. Remember not to read so much into it though...

[Extremeweatherguy]

From PR:

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

PRZ002>004-006-007-009-291630-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-060729T2100Z/
NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
428 AM AST SAT JUL 29 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATIONS 1500 FEET AND ABOVE...

A LARGE AND BROAD LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS SPREADING STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL SEE PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS TODAY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO RICO. OCCASIONAL PERIODS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE
CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[Stratosphere747]

Not surprised.

Has not had enough time to show any real organization. Give it another 4/6 hours...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Could be 90L later today, looks like 99L has some competition. If this could gain some organization then we could be talking about a possible TC over the next couple of days.

[vbhoutex]

Not surprised.

Has not had enough time to show any real organization. Give it another 4/6 hours...

4-6? Try maybe 24-36 hours for any real organization. Some TC's do spin up fast, but it is very rare and the conditions, while better are not ripe down there for rapid changes. Not saying it won't develop, because I feel it does have a good chance, but it needs more than 4-6 horus imo to get anywhere near more recognition as a possible TC.

[Stratosphere747]

Not surprised.

Has not had enough time to show any real organization. Give it another 4/6 hours...

4-6? Try maybe 24-36 hours for any real organization. Some TC's do spin up fast, but it is very rare and the conditions, while better are not ripe down there for rapid changes. Not saying it won't develop, because I feel it does have a good chance, but it needs more than 4-6 horus imo to get anywhere near more recognition as a possible TC.

I'm talking about the convection sustaining itself...

[gatorcane]

I don't like this wave in the central Caribbean one bit. There is too much convection right now for it to go poof

[vbhoutex]

Not surprised.

Has not had enough time to show any real organization. Give it another 4/6 hours...

4-6? Try maybe 24-36 hours for any real organization. Some TC's do spin up fast, but it is very rare and the conditions, while better are not ripe down there for rapid changes. Not saying it won't develop, because I feel it does have a good chance, but it needs more than 4-6 horus imo to get anywhere near more recognition as a possible TC.

I'm talking about the convection sustaining itself...

OOps, that is what I get for popping in and not reading the whole thread or at least a page back. The convection is definitely on or was on the increase. I will be watching this one closely.

[Stratosphere747]

NP David...

That's why I mentioned not to read much into the TWO. Obvious they were going to mention the blow-up of convection.

Now.....If this keeps up for another 4/6 hrs, then things might perk up. Looks a bit hostile ahead of it though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Shear has killed almost every wave this season. Apparently Mother Nature is on our side this year.

[MortisFL]

If this wave keeps blowing up, its something to watch.

[Scorpion]

Shear has killed almost every wave this season. Apparently Mother Nature is on our side this year.

15% of all waves form, and that is an average for the entire season. During the early season, June and July, the average is much lower, maybe around 5%. During the peak season, August and September, the average is much higher.

[HurricaneHunter914]

But hopefully Mother Nature will be on our side this year.

[ConvergenceZone]

From the TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

It does look better and keep in mind that alot of the hurricanes/strong storms, started with "TWO's" that looked just like this with the word for word phrasing "development if any...should be slow to occur"... I can't even count the number of storms that have developed that had this exact wording...but who knows, maybe it will, maybe it won't.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So far this year whenever they say,"Slow to occur" the wave would disappate.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So far this year whenever they say,"Slow to occur" the wave would disappate.

This one does look pretty good though:

[ConvergenceZone]

So far this year whenever they say,"Slow to occur" the wave would disappate.

true, but in June and most of July, that's typical. At the end of July and going into September, that's when I've seen it do a complete turn around on "slow to occur", but we'll see.