Conditions Appear To Be Changing In A Concerning Way...

Sean in New Orleans · #1 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 11:15 pm

(Not an official forecast..)
The atmosphere and conditions are changing and it appears that we are heading, in the next two weeks, to an active cycle, with most systems heading up the East Coast, but, a couple could swing into the GOM and head towards Texas or West Louisiana. The steering cycles and upper level winds are changing based on satellite views....I think we may be heading towards a more active tropical cycle. Hopefully, the cycle will unwind itself by the second week of September.

mike815 · #2 Postby **mike815** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 11:17 pm

yes very big changes coming up i agree with your statement there. very active upswing in the works.

Johnny · #3 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:18 am

Not all the surprising....it's getting to that time of year.

Sean in New Orleans · #4 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:14 am

Johnny wrote:Not all the surprising....it's getting to that time of year.

Profound statement. I was beginning to think that the shear would last through August!

dwg71 · #5 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 10:51 am

Almost as annoying as the "season cancel" threads are the "season about to explode" threads. Activity increases in August /Sept (peak of season), but you still need a bunch of factors to come into place to have a TC, let alone a major hurricane. This year is a normal year which in the active period of the past 11 years produced on average approximately 15/8/4 - some as high as 2005 some as low 1997s 8/3/1. We just don't know what to expect. Conditions could be ripe and still could have low numbers. And conditions change daily.

zoeyann · #6 Postby **zoeyann** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:02 am

Well he was just giving an opinion on the coming weeks in the tropics. No we don't know what to expect, but we are here to discuss the possibilties aren't we :wink:

#7 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:21 am

>>Almost as annoying as the "season cancel" threads are the "season about to explode" threads. Activity increases in August /Sept (peak of season), but you still need a bunch of factors to come into place to have a TC, let alone a major hurricane.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that "a bunch of factors come into place" and we end up with TC's and major hurricanes.

Steve

dwg71 · #8 Postby **dwg71** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:24 am

Yes we will, but it might not be until Sept, or it could be next week.

Frank2 · #9 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:29 am

If you will, please see my comment on the "Lesson to be learned..." thread...

Frank

PTrackerLA · #10 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:29 am

I'm worried about the wave in the carib. right now. If that we'd probably be dealing with a storm entering the gulf next week.

zoeyann · #11 Postby **zoeyann** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:34 am

It seems like the gulf is becoming more favorable right now so I hope it does not come in.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:11 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I'm worried about the wave in the carib. right now. If that we'd probably be dealing with a storm entering the gulf next week.

I'm worried too. I would really hate to go to bed one night only for it to spin up and be a storm in the morning. The season is heating up for sure!

HouTXmetro · #13 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:14 pm

I'd like to know what conditions are changing? It seems like the same inhibiting factors are still in place IMO.

White Cap · #14 Postby **White Cap** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:22 pm

If the predictions on the following site hold true, it calls for:

August 2-8 - Disturbed weather in the mid Atlantic
August 9-15 - Hurricane weather for Florida...and
to really scare anyone who might believe in this sort of stuff:

August 31-Sept. 6 - Hurricane of great strength for Florida and Gulf Coast
Sept 7-13 - Tropical Storm for LA

Sept 14-21 - High cat storm strikes Florida, with Louisiana having squalls and flooding

Sept. 22 - Hurricane for Louisiana
and...yet another..

October 13-21 Louisiana Hurricane.

Good thing I personally don't take much stock in this at all! :lol:

http://www.weathersage.com/forecasts/20 ... prelim.htm

Extremeweatherguy · #15 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:46 pm

White Cap wrote:If the predictions on the following site hold true, it calls for:

August 2-8 - Disturbed weather in the mid Atlantic
August 9-15 - Hurricane weather for Florida...and
to really scare anyone who might believe in this sort of stuff:

August 31-Sept. 6 - Hurricane of great strength for Florida and Gulf Coast
Sept 7-13 - Tropical Storm for LA

Sept 14-21 - High cat storm strikes Florida, with Louisiana having squalls and flooding

Sept. 22 - Hurricane for Louisiana
and...yet another..

October 13-21 Louisiana Hurricane.

Good thing I personally don't take much stock in this at all!
http://www.weathersage.com/forecasts/20 ... prelim.htm

Neither do I. This same sights predictions have not been right for the past 2 years.

White Cap · #16 Postby **White Cap** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:49 pm

That is good to know! :lol:

#17 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 10:31 am

Astrometeorologist, gimme a break. Lets see, let me break out my tarot cards and Ouija board. OMG they just told me that that Florida and the Carolinas will receive a hurricane threat in September (since both areas receive a warning just about every year it's a pretty safe bet, and less vague than her predictions). :roll:

Sean in New Orleans · #18 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:48 am

HouTXmetro wrote:I'd like to know what conditions are changing? It seems like the same inhibiting factors are still in place IMO.

Sheer is veering North and decreasing...whenever it sheers North, it signals a weakening and disappearing of sheer.

Conditions Appear To Be Changing In A Concerning Way...

Conditions Appear To Be Changing In A Concerning Way...

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