Wave in Central Caribbean

HurricaneHunter914 · #321 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:28 pm

Come on little disturbance, we need the rain.

HurricaneHunter914 · #322 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:05 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear is decreasing and is becoming more favorable for development, it seems like Florida or the Gulf Coast may get more than just a tropical wave.

Grease Monkey · #323 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:07 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Shear is decreasing and is becoming more favorable for development, it seems like Florida or the Gulf Coast may get more than just a tropical wave.

Are those shear maps considered accurate?

Opal storm · #324 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:07 pm

This doesn't show anything coming to Florida or the Gulf thanks to that ridge.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

HurricaneHunter914 · #325 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:08 pm

I don't know if they are, but forecasts aren't always correct you now.

#326 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:53 pm

well we will see what Friday or Sat brings. I don't think it is dead. See what happens when is get to the Bahamas. See you all in the Am. Uall have fun tonight.

bucman1 · #327 Postby **bucman1** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:56 pm

before all is said and done that ridge will change positions 2-3 times.

beachbum_al · #328 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:36 pm

I think it is something to watch but not to get worry about right now. A lot can happen in several days.

boca · #329 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:40 pm

Wave is losing convection and heading south of Florida as of right now.

Tampa_God · #330 Postby **Tampa_God** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:57 pm

But the other part of it in the Carribean has refired with convention. One of the local forecasters said that we might to be on the look out for this.

DESTRUCTION5 · #331 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:31 am

Souther 1/2 of the wave looks healthy this morn...This may have a shot after reaching the SE GOM

#332 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:32 am

Tampa_God wrote:But the other part of it in the Carribean has refired with convention. One of the local forecasters said that we might to be on the look out for this.

Yes, as I said earlier this area in the central Caribbean is firing due to wave interaction with shear but as this moves west it will have much more favorable upper level winds.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

DESTRUCTION5 · #333 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:37 am

I think we may end up with 2 more named storms by aug 1..This wave is slowing and i would not be surprised to see a cyclone dev in the SE GOM and W Carib..

beachbum_al · #334 Postby **beachbum_al** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:41 am

Looks interesting this morning. I hope I am not going to be making several trips down to the beach to secure items at the condos in the next two weeks. :lol:

#335 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:07 am

8:05 am TWD AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE AIDED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOSTLY WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE
ANALYZED WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 69W-75W. WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING THE TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THESE UPPER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THIS WAY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
I'm a bit surpised they are saying winds will remain unfavorable.

#336 Postby **feederband** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 7:48 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Come on little disturbance, we need the rain.

You guys need the rain up there? Were soaked..

Stormavoider · #337 Postby **Stormavoider** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:49 am

Is there a rotation starting centered about 15N 74.5W?

HurricaneHunter914 · #338 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:10 am

I just like the rain.

#339 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:13 am

Stormavoider wrote:Is there a rotation starting centered about 15N 74.5W?

I don't see it. I ran a loop a zoomed in still couldnt see it. Maybe some one eles can.

#340 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 9:42 am

Sorry, I'm new to this thread. This wave is far from dead. It's looks better than it has to date IMHO. The wave is picking up energy along the way and is about to get some additional energy piled in from the backside - can't tell from WV conclusively if that energy is from an additional wave or if it's upper level energy. But it doesn't matter. The US Generated Model (GFS) is nuking the Atlatnic ridge as it has tried to do each run the last several days at 00z. The other models maintain or build it farther westward. Obviously the known bias with the GFS would lead the model watcher to conclude that the more likely threat (if there ever is one) is Texas or Mexico. At least it appears that way this early in the game. Everyone on the gulf coast should cast an occasional eye on the system this weekend because it will be in the Gulf by early next week. Whether it ever does anything or not remains to be seen. But at least it's garnering some attention that it didn't get on local Channel 4's 6pm broadcast last night.

Steve

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