Is talkin tropics on tonight?
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I can't hear what Aaron is talking about.
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fact789 wrote:who turned on the speakers?
and whats up with the fairy music in the backround?
They had some problems with bad weather where they are and that is why the interruptions.But anyway it was a good show that Charlie did and he said an important thing about the different basins.The Pacific is calming down while the Atlantic is heating up.
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To show you how out of it I am...I didn't even know 99L had been initiated until about 5 mins ago when I checked a sat image for the first time in 2 days. More on that in a second.
My thanks to Charlie and Aaron for putting the show together tonight. I got stuck with the moving truck...I had to use it tonight because the reservations I thought I had for tomorrow were no good...and I couldn't find another one...so what could I do? Had to get my stuff moved out...but the good news is...after tomorrow I'm done with the move! Thanks again to those guys for picking it up and I really appreciate their help...I will have to go back and listen to the archive tomorrow.
Now...on to 99L.
I am as impressed with system as any I have seen so far this season coming out of the deep tropics. Deep thunderstorm activity is present and has persisted for a while now. We got lucky and got a pretty good QUIKSCAT pass at 4PM this afternoon...showing 50knt contaminated barbs but not much in the way of a circulation yet:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html
TMI and SSMI passes from today are not all that helpful even though we got a pretty good look with the TMI pass at around 0Z. Even so...the composite image from that pass does line up well with the position from the )Z model runs from NHC:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.61pc.jpg
In fact looking at the initialization of the 0Z models the apparent position of whatever center is there lines up pretty well with the NHC fix (scroll down):
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06072723
The Globals aren't seeing it yet but the 0Z NOGAPS model has a pretty significant 500MB weakness in the central Atlantic by 72 hours:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072
However...the model sees this as a transient feature and heights build back in by day 5:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=108
GFS is not so optimistic about a height breakdown in the same 72 hour time:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif
It's a bit early to make a call on development...but IF we do see some...given the low lat of the system any breakdown in heights in the CAtl should be short lived...looks like this system is going to come west for a while.
Will need to watch the deep convection overnight and if it persists for the next day or so we could see a tropical depression this weekend.
I am also posting the bulk of this in the Analysis forum...it may get lost in this thread.
Thanks again for tuning in and sorry I didnt annoucne what was going on...it's been pretty hectic lately.
MW
My thanks to Charlie and Aaron for putting the show together tonight. I got stuck with the moving truck...I had to use it tonight because the reservations I thought I had for tomorrow were no good...and I couldn't find another one...so what could I do? Had to get my stuff moved out...but the good news is...after tomorrow I'm done with the move! Thanks again to those guys for picking it up and I really appreciate their help...I will have to go back and listen to the archive tomorrow.
Now...on to 99L.
I am as impressed with system as any I have seen so far this season coming out of the deep tropics. Deep thunderstorm activity is present and has persisted for a while now. We got lucky and got a pretty good QUIKSCAT pass at 4PM this afternoon...showing 50knt contaminated barbs but not much in the way of a circulation yet:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html
TMI and SSMI passes from today are not all that helpful even though we got a pretty good look with the TMI pass at around 0Z. Even so...the composite image from that pass does line up well with the position from the )Z model runs from NHC:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.61pc.jpg
In fact looking at the initialization of the 0Z models the apparent position of whatever center is there lines up pretty well with the NHC fix (scroll down):
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06072723
The Globals aren't seeing it yet but the 0Z NOGAPS model has a pretty significant 500MB weakness in the central Atlantic by 72 hours:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072
However...the model sees this as a transient feature and heights build back in by day 5:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=108
GFS is not so optimistic about a height breakdown in the same 72 hour time:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif
It's a bit early to make a call on development...but IF we do see some...given the low lat of the system any breakdown in heights in the CAtl should be short lived...looks like this system is going to come west for a while.
Will need to watch the deep convection overnight and if it persists for the next day or so we could see a tropical depression this weekend.
I am also posting the bulk of this in the Analysis forum...it may get lost in this thread.
Thanks again for tuning in and sorry I didnt annoucne what was going on...it's been pretty hectic lately.
MW
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