Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

skufful · #81 Postby **skufful** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:01 am

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

6z GFS run.

The most impressive run I haved seen so far this year.But I would wait for the UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC for a consensus about this.

I would like to see a few moew frames of that.

boca · #82 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:48 am

Looking at that run atleast it won't be a Florida or Gulf coast threat, unfortunately maybe the Carolinas.

boca · #83 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:56 am

In the 00z GFS run they loose the system.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

boca · #84 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:29 am

How often does the GFS loose a system like they had in the 06z run.

#85 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:37 am

boca wrote:How often does the GFS loose a system like they had in the 06z run.

I think they lost it because if you look at Africa there is NOTHING for about 1000 miles across the continent that could create a low at this time. Maybe things will change in 2-3 days though...

Have you ever seen Africa so quiet when it is nearly August ?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

boca · #86 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:39 am

I think the man above is giving us a break from last year.

#87 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:40 am

boca wrote:I think the man above is giving us a break from last year.

well I don't know, the CV season typically is cranking by Aug 15th so there is still over 2 weeks for conditions to change...

Even so, we saw what homegrown systems can do so we don't need to have any CV systems to have problems.

I am not celebrating yet

#88 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:28 am

skufful wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

6z GFS run.

The most impressive run I haved seen so far this year.But I would wait for the UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC for a consensus about this.

I would like to see a few moew frames of that.

Yep we'll have to wait until the 12Z comes out to see if we still have a consensus with this area still about 4 days out.

Hence if you don't see any convection that might possibly be related to this area that GFS and some other models are hinting at, does not mean that we won't see a blow up over africa in the next couple of days.

The 06Z is certainly picking up no a pattern here as the GFS has continued to show this in the last 6 runs except for the 00Z I guess... I didn't see that one though.

I don't see where people were saying it disappeared but, I still see 00Z showing vorticity in the same area it has been showing.
00Z GFS 850mb Vorticity.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

06Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

ThunderMate · #89 Postby **ThunderMate** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 2:58 pm

What are the newest models showing?? Same thing or do we need to wait and see?

#90 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 4:23 pm

and there you have it folks - but was this the low the GFS was showing earlier this week?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BRIEF SQUALLS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:32 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS.

It's much more agressive.Now let's see if the other models jump on this.

#92 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:41 pm

CMC Model

The Canadien model has a low but further to the east than what GFS has.

#93 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 12:54 pm

Luis, I think it is fair to say some Cape Verde system will be forming over the next week or so and that the Cape Verde season is nearly upon us....

#94 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:03 pm

Although 99L still has a shot down the road in 1-3 days of forming... my bet is on this area that is going to be poised to move off of africa. Many of the models are picking up on lower pressures in the area. If this low they are depicting does not form this is at least a sign of the cape verde season going to pick up. Although the models do not depict this area in the same place at the same time... there is model consensus that we are going to have something in a few days.

GFS
Develops low pressure and moves it east into the Atlantic
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

CMC
Also develops a low and moves it east.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

I have been watching this for a few days now and it's still there. So we'll have to watch this situation closely.

#95 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:04 pm

I believe those models are actually moving it WEST :lol:

Eyewall · #96 Postby **Eyewall** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:09 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Although 99L still has a shot down the road in 1-3 days of forming... my bet is on this area that is going to be poised to move off of africa. Many of the models are picking up on lower pressures in the area. If this low they are depicting does not form this is at least a sign of the cape verde season going to pick up. Although the models do not depict this area in the same place at the same time... there is model consensus that we are going to have something in a few days.

GFS
Develops low pressure and moves it east into the Atlantic
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

CMC
Also develops a low and moves it east.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

I have been watching this for a few days now and it's still there. So we'll have to watch this situation closely.

Thats quite impressive!

Eyewall · #97 Postby **Eyewall** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:14 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

look at the size of the one behind it!! WHOA :eek:

#98 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 3:35 pm

Yep, look at that monster wave about ready to roll off. I bet that is the one the GFS has been showing now since the beginning of the week.

That is the one that will be our Low watch.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

ConvergenceZone · #99 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:08 pm

Yep, since everyone says the other two waves close to the islands wont' make it, we may need to focus our attention on this one. Something HAS to start getting it's act together(as I glance at the calendar).

#100 Postby **N2FSU** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:18 pm

Here is a good sat view of the wave about to roll off of Africa:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

Who is online