A question

Dustin · #1 Postby **Dustin** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:22 pm

Hey folks,

I have a question. Why has this year been a more quiet year than last year? how are the dynamics different?

#2 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:24 pm

a) nothing will compare to last year

b)ill let the pro mets answer

wxmann_91 · #3 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:39 pm

Answer:

a) ITCZ is further south

b) A TUTT has been the dominate feature across the Atlantic for some time. This funnels strong westerlies across the Tropical Atlantic.

This is also the reason why the EPAC has been so active lately (especially compared to recent years); waves have crossed the Atlantic w/o fanfare only to reappear in a favorable environment in the EPAC and develop.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:42 pm

Many reasons. 2005 was an extreme anomaly. Bermuda High was much weaker, meaning weaker trade winds and much lower pressure across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. The ITCZ (band of thunderstorms around the Equator was located much farther north because of the weaker high pressure, putting early-season waves into the central Caribbean vs. South America.

Wind shear was also unusually low across the tropics for all of the 2005 season, another contributing factor.

Atlantic SSTs were the highest in over 100 years - not a factor for the number of storms, but for the intensity.

So far in 2006, the tropics are much closer to normal with respect to wind shear and SSTs. Bermuda high is MUCH stronger, meaning more wind shear. In about 50% of all seasons, there are NO named storms before August. So even 2006 is above normal with 2 storms by the end of July.

I expect we'll see 3-4 named storms in August, including 1-2 majors, 4-6 named storms in September, 2-3 majors, then it'll quiet down in October/Novemeber with maybe 1-3 named storms after September. Still above normal, but quiet compared to 2005.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:45 pm

I will be a old man by the time I see another season like 2005.

wxmann_91 · #6 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:50 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I will be a old man by the time I see another season like 2005.

We'd be probably all dead by the time another season like 2005 comes around.

#7 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:06 pm

This year is a regular year...and last year was just total hyper crazyness...dynamics? mets already answered that...

#8 Postby **windycity** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:01 pm

Last year was insane. Totally crazy. I felt so bad for all of the mets, no sleep and burned out by Aug.

#9 Postby **MGC** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:10 pm

Odds are most of us won't experience another hurricane season like 2005 in our lives again. Thank God! Just about every possible parameter condusive to hurricane development was nearly perfect last year. 2006 seems to be rather normal so far......MGC

Grease Monkey · #10 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:18 pm

I think the conditions of future seasons can still be much more closer to perfect than 2005. We aint seen nothing yet.

Dustin · #11 Postby **Dustin** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:27 am

Grease Monkey wrote:I think the conditions of future seasons can still be much more closer to perfect than 2005. We aint seen nothing yet.

Going against the grain here a bit, but with the earth ever warming, I have no reason to think that there will not be another year like 2005, although I hope there will not be. :cry:

********

Also thank you for the answers everybody. Now I understand a little bit better.

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