98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[CajunMama]

Out of curiosity what would be causing the eastern side to break up and dissipate?

[southerngale]

IF August is as quiet as July,I will be ready to move on to another weather board

I think she was joking because so many people are saying how quiet July is and both of our areas in SE TX have flooded this month due to tropical "storms"
We wouldn't look forward to another "quiet" month in the tropics.

[Stratosphere747]

Hey Stratosphere,

Thanks for the info. It just seems to me most of the convection is moving around the 500mb low which is keeping the rains south and east of here. I just don't see how it will get drawn up here again. But hey I could be wrong, at least according to NWS I am....

I'm with you...

What is interesting, there looks to be another MLC near San Antonio which could be enhancing the latest development near Corpus..

Looks like there is finally a disconnect of convection near Matagorda Bay..

I'm hoping the low did not miss that trough which was suppose to move it on out of here..

[HouTXmetro]

Hey Stratosphere,

Thanks for the info. It just seems to me most of the convection is moving around the 500mb low which is keeping the rains south and east of here. I just don't see how it will get drawn up here again. But hey I could be wrong, at least according to NWS I am....

Not so quick, these storms are building SW of Houston.

[Stratosphere747]

Ehh....

Looks like dry air is trying to wrap back around the low.

Those storms to the SW should be it, as there is nothing training like most of today.

[Rainband]

IF August is as quiet as July,I will be ready to move on to another weather board

I think she was joking because so many people are saying how quiet July is and both of our areas in SE TX have flooded this month due to tropical "storms"
We wouldn't look forward to another "quiet" month in the tropics.

I got it now

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if there was discussion at the NHC on whether or not to declare it a tropical depression (or tropical storm)?

[Johnny]

I wonder if there was discussion at the NHC on whether or not to declare it a tropical depression (or tropical storm)?

Their is nothing at all to discuss. This disturbance was never able to establish a low level circulation, which you have to have to classify a disturbance a depression or tropical storm. End of story.


I'm trying to figure out the latest discussion grom the NWS office here in the Houston also??? I just don't see it happening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It did in fact have a LLC but it was over land so no development. End of story! In its been zotted!

[CrazyC83]

It did in fact have a LLC but it was over land so no development. End of story! In its been zotted!

But will they find out that it had an LLC before landfall?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This LLC never came over water. Its around 31.5/97.5 or so. Its the LLC wxman57 was tracking.

[Stratosphere747]

I wonder if there was discussion at the NHC on whether or not to declare it a tropical depression (or tropical storm)?

Their is nothing at all to discuss. This disturbance was never able to establish a low level circulation, which you have to have to classify a disturbance a depression or tropical storm. End of story.


I'm trying to figure out the latest discussion grom the NWS office here in the Houston also??? I just don't see it happening.

I thought I had an idea earlier about the latest disco, then scratched my head....

Now look down towards Victoria and Corpus. Another training line is setting up. If the low is slowly moving north, than this may stay inland and be cause for concern.

[Hurricanehink]

This LLC never came over water. Its around 31.5/97.5 or so. Its the LLC wxman57 was tracking.

Just curious, is it a criterion for a tropical storm to form over waters? Tropical Storm Beryl in 1988 formed over Louisiana, for example. Amelia in 1978 strengthened over Texas. If it has persistant convection over a low level circulation, how is it not a tropical cyclone?

[Air Force Met]

This LLC never came over water. Its around 31.5/97.5 or so. Its the LLC wxman57 was tracking.

Just curious, is it a criterion for a tropical storm to form over waters? Tropical Storm Beryl in 1988 formed over Louisiana, for example. Amelia in 1978 strengthened over Texas. If it has persistant convection over a low level circulation, how is it not a tropical cyclone?

Well...Beryl had the potential and did move over the waters (albeit barely)...and Amelia really didn't strengthen over Texas. They didn't issue intermediate advisories back then. She was a TS before she passed the coast...but that happend in between advisories.

[jeff]

Rainfall:

Rainfall averaged 4-6 inches over western Harris County much of which fell in 3-4 hours. 24 hr totals averaged 5-8 inches over the eastern portion of Harris County over Carpenters and lower Greens Bayou.


Flooding areas:

South Mayde Creek at Greenhouse: 3.5 ft overbanks this afternoon. Receeding

Langham Creek at W Little York: Bankfull this afternoon. Receeding

Bear Creek at Clay Rd: 3.0 ft below bankfull tis afternoon. Receeding.

Addicks and Barker resovoirs will be rises during the night as these creeks drain into the control pools. All rises should remain below the 100-yr flood elevations and within the federal control property.

Carpenters Bayou near I-10/E Belt exceeded its banks this morning flooding a few subdivision streets.

White Oak Bayou at Lakeview in Jersey Village crested at 2.0 ft below bankfull and is receeding.

Lower Greens Bayou at Ley Rd, Tidwell and E Mt Houston continue to rise but should crest within their banks.

Cypress Creek at Huffmiester and Grant Rd are within a few feet of bankfull and should crest later this evneing at bankfull.

Moderate to Major flooding is forecast along the Tres Palacios River in Matagorda County.

Minor flooding is possible along the San Bernard River in Fort Bend and Wharton counties Thursday and Friday.

It appears a few homes took on water in the Cloverleaf area, and along the lower portion of South Mayde Creek. Additional homes may flood along the Tres Palacios River based on forecast rises.

Please disregard the RFC forecast for Buffalo at Piney Point, Greens and US 59, and Cypress at I-45 (Westfield). These forecast are way high and flooding is not likely at these locations.

[Hurricanehink]

This LLC never came over water. Its around 31.5/97.5 or so. Its the LLC wxman57 was tracking.

Just curious, is it a criterion for a tropical storm to form over waters? Tropical Storm Beryl in 1988 formed over Louisiana, for example. Amelia in 1978 strengthened over Texas. If it has persistant convection over a low level circulation, how is it not a tropical cyclone?

Well...Beryl had the potential and did move over the waters (albeit barely)...and Amelia really didn't strengthen over Texas. They didn't issue intermediate advisories back then. She was a TS before she passed the coast...but that happend in between advisories.

Hmm, ok, good points.

[HouTXmetro]

so whats the deal with all the convection in south Texas? Is it scheduled to hang together and move? If so, what direction.

[Yankeegirl]

Thats what I wanna know too...

[HouTXmetro]

Matagorda county has been getting pounded by that same T-Storm sell for over 3 hours!!!!! I hope the folks down there are ok!!!

And secondly, it appears the activity is STexas is pushing to the ENE... I doubt it will hold together before reaching SE Texas but who knows. Stranger things have happened.

[Stratosphere747]

Well for awhile it looked as if the area down by Corpus was going to reconnect with the line near Matagorda and begin training back up the coast..

Good news as of now is that the area near Corpus has stabilized, and the area over Matagorda has hardly moved. Not so good for them as reports of 6-8 inches and roads being closed.

Does seem to be a few storms popping up in Jackson county, but not that impressive yet.

It appears that the low is moving, which is a good sign....