Glob Models have strong lows in E Atlantic,first 2 weeks,Aug

[gatorcane]

There's a huge blob that will be moving off Africa over the next day or so -this blob could be the one the GFS is forecasting to be the Low, although it seems a couple of days early.

Lets' see what happens with it as it moves off Africa:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[gatorcane]

There's a huge blob that will be moving off Africa over the next day or so -this blob could be the one the GFS is forecasting to be the Low, although it seems a couple of days early.

Lets' see what happens with it as it moves off Africa:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[cycloneye]

Long range forecast
The past four runs of the GFS model have consistently shown a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane forming off the coast of Africa August 3, tracking westward, and hitting the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on August 7. While I will be amazed if this forecast verifies--since our computer models are not very talented at forecasting tropical storm formation one day in advance, let alone a week or ten days in advance--it does serve as a reminder that we are entering August next week, and we should not be surprised if these most dangerous of hurricanes start forming from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.

Jeff Masters

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200607

Above is a comment that Jeff Masters made earlier today about the long range forecasts.

[GulfBreezer]

Above is a comment that Jeff Masters made earlier today about the long range forecasts.

I particularly like the part about it not entering the GOM.........ok, call me selfish but, well, I have had enough, this is our year OFF!!

[gatorcane]

Long range forecast
The past four runs of the GFS model have consistently shown a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane forming off the coast of Africa August 3, tracking westward, and hitting the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on August 7. While I will be amazed if this forecast verifies--since our computer models are not very talented at forecasting tropical storm formation one day in advance, let alone a week or ten days in advance--it does serve as a reminder that we are entering August next week, and we should not be surprised if these most dangerous of hurricanes start forming from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.

Jeff Masters

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200607

Above is a comment that Jeff Masters made earlier today about the long range forecasts.

wow, really - things look like they will be getting interesting by mid August...

[cycloneye]

Above is a comment that Jeff Masters made earlier today about the long range forecasts.

I particularly like the part about it not entering the GOM.........ok, call me selfish but, well, I have had enough, this is our year OFF!!

Agree 100% Sandi.I want to see a break for all of the members who live in the Gulf Coast.

[gatorcane]

Above is a comment that Jeff Masters made earlier today about the long range forecasts.

I particularly like the part about it not entering the GOM.........ok, call me selfish but, well, I have had enough, this is our year OFF!!

Agree 100% Sandi.I want to see a break for all of the members who live in the Gulf Coast.

Luis many of these long-range GFS runs shows something hitting or coming close to Puerto Rico. Hopefully you will be spared

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Amen all I hear is GOM this, or GOM that. Has anyone even stooped to consider how the people who live their feel about the situation? I personally hope all the indicators, and forecasters are right, and the GOM is spared any strikes, especially major ones, this season.

As for those who want another Katrina or Rita type monster, just think about how awful that would be if it hit these already ravaged areas. I sure It would be the worse nightmare for all those already battered people

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I apologize for the rant. It is just something that gets under my skin. Ever since 1992 I hate the thought of hurricane induced suffering, guess it brings back some unpleasant memories, to put it mildly. Now back to the topic of the thread.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out, still seem way to early to even say this will really form.

[storms in NC]

I apologize for the rant. It is just something that gets under my skin. Ever since 1992 I hate the thought of hurricane induced suffering, guess it brings back some unpleasant memories, to put it mildly. Now back to the topic of the thread.

Should be interesting to see how this plays out, still seem way to early to even say this will really form.

Well been there done that. Lost my home in 99 to floyd. I don't think any one wants to see any more bad hurricanes. But we have to deal with what is sent anyones way. Then take it one day at a time.

[storms in NC]

Above is a comment that Jeff Masters made earlier today about the long range forecasts.

I particularly like the part about it not entering the GOM.........ok, call me selfish but, well, I have had enough, this is our year OFF!!

Agree 100% Sandi.I want to see a break for all of the members who live in the Gulf Coast.

I have this feeling that they will be cause we have had our break here in NC. We have had 1 a year since 99 I think. But not really bad ones. So this makes me think the east coast is in for it this year. I hope NO ONE get hit this year and they all be fish.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

As for those who want another Katrina or Rita type monster, just think about how awful that would be if it hit these already ravaged areas. I sure It would be the worse nightmare for all those already battered people

FYI---I agree---> Our small town was hit by Rita. Our leeves are still not finished. It won't take a major storm to bring more nightmare. Many homes are going up but most on the list to be elevated. We don't need a storm this year or the next two or three years.

http://www.louisianatropics.com to view a few pics on Montegut during Hurricane Rita. These were taking about 2-3 days after the storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

Some sort of development down the road at over 186 to 200 hours or so continues to seem quite plausible. Of course, this is the extended (long-range) period, but synoptic indicators are for a more favorable convergence environment and more favorable starting environment down the road by around early to middle August for a possible Cape Verde system, or possibly one that develops further west that is of Cape Verde origin. These factors, along with established ridging support for some development potential, will likely help to offset the effects of some dry air intrusion from ridging/SAL and regulate it to more favorable amounts at the lower to middle levels (e.g., just right: not below needed values, but not excessive).

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18 z GFS.

Shows the low pressure moving thru the Atlantic westward.Then it turns WNW and brushes the northern Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico.The run ends with this low just East of Florida.However it doesn't show it very strong.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This is not from the link above but, from the psu site.


I spy a couple more systems that come off africa that GFS gives some low level vorticity. I would say that we are going to have to wait and see what's going to happen and if GFS verifies that would be an anomaly in itself. LOL...

After getting home from work I decided to see if any other of the models were showing the same kind of thing as the GFS. Well the only one that is as close to the GFS is the FSUMM5 (not the supre ensemble). What I am looking for here is some consistency within the models. All of the models are showing low level vorticity around the same time and all of them are about the same as they were last night except for the nogaps I believe. I don't think that model was showing much. Now thinking of the GFS long range model could probably drive one crazy but, if you look for some consistency within the models and see what they are doing you can probably come up with a general idea of what could happen.

Here are the other models..

CMC 12Z 850mb Vorticity
Not as developed and a little farther north towards the Cape Verde Islands.. but, still thinking the same kind of thing


FSU MM5 - not the supre ensemble
This model is a little more like the GFS.


NOGAPS -
This model is starting to join in on the fun now with some vorticity in the low levels the same as the other 3 models


UKMET -
This model is not organizing anything at this point but, if you look you can see that it's still showing a disorganized mass about the same time as the others.

[gatorcane]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

18 z GFS.

Shows the low pressure moving thru the Atlantic westward.Then it turns WNW and brushes the northern Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico.The run ends with this low just East of Florida.However it doesn't show it very strong.

Thanks Luis for this update. The fact that the GFS is showing this low now for a couple of days of runs indicates things could get interesting in about 1 week

[SouthFloridawx]

I really think the GFS might be a sign of things to come in a couple of weeks.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Aug - Oct. We are fast approaching the busiest months of hurricane season. Before we know it we will be at the peak.

[WindRunner]

Well, that's definately an interesting pictures the models paint there, South, and only 5-6 days out . . . certainly something to watch as that time approaches . . .

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z GFS run.

The most impressive run I haved seen so far this year.But I would wait for the UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC for a consensus about this.