98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3
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NYCHurr06
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NYCHurr06
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Stormcenter
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Stratosphere747
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NYCHurr06
Stratosphere747 wrote:Thing just keeps spitting our energy...
Storms just north of Corpus on the tail end, are just brutal....
River flood warning now out for the Calcasieu River. Minor flooding is expected due to strong southerly winds pushing the water.
RIVER FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER, AT OLD TOWN BAY...SALT WATER BARRIER
FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY, THE LATEST STAGE WAS 3.8 FEET AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CREST NEAR 4.5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. AT STAGES NEAR 4.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OF GOOS FERRY ROAD WILL OCCUR.
FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR SALT WATER BARRIER, THE LATEST STAGE WAS 3.6 FEET AT 12 PM WEDNESDAY. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. AT STAGES NEAR 4.0 FEET, MINOR MARSHLAND FLOODING OCCURS.
Also, NWS HGX has the San Jacinto River at Lake Houston .3' below flood stage and the Buffalo Bayou at Piney Point 1.4' below flood stage. If you live near those areas, keep a watchful eye on the waters.
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NYCHurr06 wrote:dwg71 wrote:Can we declare 98L completely dead and discuss the flooding in the US weather board? 99L will be here before we know it and we will have something to discuss.
And, utnil something else comes along, why not discuss it here
Well for one, we have a weather forum just for that.
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Stratosphere747
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southerngale
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Man, it's NASTY out there! I had a flat this morning during all this stinking rain, and was stuck on the side of the road for a few hours waiting on AAA to get there. Then the guy can't figure out how to get my spare out from the bottom of my car, so it takes forever. We had the manual out, trying to find a release button to release the spare and it took a while because it was blended with the carpet so well, you couldn't see it. Anyway, he got it on, and the spare needed air, but not as bad as my regular tires so I made it to a store and put some air in it, then went to get a new tire. It was pouring and very windy, when I got out at the tire shop, the wind blew my umbrella inside out and broke it, and I got soaked with that sideways rain coming down. I've been driving through flooded streets and in and out of this rain so much today, I feel like a drowned rat.
It's still pouring right now and it's very windy! LLC or not, this is just like a tropical storm.
There's a flood warning out now and they're saying we can expect several more inches of rain. Earlier the NWS had us at 90% for today, but down to 30% for tonight. Now it's 80% chance of heavy rain tonight, and 50% chance of heavy rain tomorrow too. I thought it looked like this was going to move out late this afternoon? They don't have an afternoon discussion out yet...what's changed? Is it supposed to slow down or something? What a mess!
It's still pouring right now and it's very windy! LLC or not, this is just like a tropical storm.
There's a flood warning out now and they're saying we can expect several more inches of rain. Earlier the NWS had us at 90% for today, but down to 30% for tonight. Now it's 80% chance of heavy rain tonight, and 50% chance of heavy rain tomorrow too. I thought it looked like this was going to move out late this afternoon? They don't have an afternoon discussion out yet...what's changed? Is it supposed to slow down or something? What a mess!
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PTrackerLA
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Stratosphere747
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Sure this discussion will have similar impacts towards the Golden Triangle and Easter La.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS
MOVED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL BEND TO ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
AND EAST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES. ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS
OR WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA.
THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY
IF THEY OCCUR ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WHARTON
COUNTY...EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY...WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MATAGORDA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF HARRIS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LIBERTY COUNTY WHERE
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
SINCE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS
MOVED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL BEND TO ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
AND EAST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...BUT WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES. ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS
OR WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA.
THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING... ESPECIALLY
IF THEY OCCUR ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WHARTON
COUNTY...EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY...WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MATAGORDA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF HARRIS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LIBERTY COUNTY WHERE
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
SINCE EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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Stormcenter
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It's amazing how 98L continues to sustain itself even though the "center" is over land. I don't recall a disturbance doing this for so long that was not officially classified a TD or higher.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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jasons2k
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Question:
A few pro mets this AM were saying this should move out and we'd just be left with some patchy light-moderate rain. I agreed - esp. based on the radar trends. As of a few hours ago I had pretty much resigned myself that this event is mostly over here in Harris County and the Houston metro area.
THEN this afternoon, the NWS seems to think otherwise. I expected them to come out with a 'things are winding down' kind of discussion, but it's quite the opposite. Looking at the radar, I don't see how we'll get any more significant rains out of this unless somehow the old LLC west of here moved east overnight with core rains. I don't see how the offshore stuff will work back into this area.
What are some pro mets' take on this:?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST APPEARING TO SLOWLY SPIRAL AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB LOW ACROSS EAST TX WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED INTO EAST TX TONIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR TWO INCHES
INLAND SO RAIN CHANCE TO REMAIN HIGH. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO
AHEAD AND EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY AS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING WITH THE 500MB LOW MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF
FLOODING. BELIEVE AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.
A few pro mets this AM were saying this should move out and we'd just be left with some patchy light-moderate rain. I agreed - esp. based on the radar trends. As of a few hours ago I had pretty much resigned myself that this event is mostly over here in Harris County and the Houston metro area.
THEN this afternoon, the NWS seems to think otherwise. I expected them to come out with a 'things are winding down' kind of discussion, but it's quite the opposite. Looking at the radar, I don't see how we'll get any more significant rains out of this unless somehow the old LLC west of here moved east overnight with core rains. I don't see how the offshore stuff will work back into this area.
What are some pro mets' take on this:?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST APPEARING TO SLOWLY SPIRAL AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB LOW ACROSS EAST TX WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED INTO EAST TX TONIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE TWO INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR TWO INCHES
INLAND SO RAIN CHANCE TO REMAIN HIGH. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO
AHEAD AND EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY AS CONVECTION
OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING WITH THE 500MB LOW MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF
FLOODING. BELIEVE AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.
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Stratosphere747
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Jschlitz..
I don't even want to mention the word "stall" but the motion of the low has slowed down quite a bit. Also the movement throughout the day had been off to the NE. This has slowed down as well.
There has been a heck of a flare-up down by Corpus. If this low does in fact begin to slowly move towards the north, then it may just pull in not only what is in the Gulf, but the increasing convection to our south...
I don't even want to mention the word "stall" but the motion of the low has slowed down quite a bit. Also the movement throughout the day had been off to the NE. This has slowed down as well.
There has been a heck of a flare-up down by Corpus. If this low does in fact begin to slowly move towards the north, then it may just pull in not only what is in the Gulf, but the increasing convection to our south...
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Rainband
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southerngale
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Thanks curtadams...it's been a rough day. There's some other things I'd rather not post about, rather off topic, that have enhanced this wonderful day.
PT, I noticed that yesterday, but I just saw they recently issued one this afternoon. It's not what I was hoping to read.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006
.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD AND AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZED
AS PROMISED...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BEST GUESS SFC LOW POSITION IS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION
AS OF 21Z...WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 30-40KT H85 LLJ
CONTINUING TO FUNNEL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALSO OF
INTEREST...AND SOME CONCERN...ARE THE PALESTINE AND WINNFIELD
PROFILERS AT 250MB...WHICH IMPLY AT LEAST SOME UPPER DIVERGENT
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
KLCH 88D SHOWED WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OFFSHORE...OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO
AN APPARENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX LIFTING NNE THROUGH ERN TX
ATTM...JUST WEST OF HARDIN COUNTY...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ENHANCED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THUS FAR...NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PERFORMED BETTER WITH THIS SCENARIO
THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHOWING A DEEPER AND MORE CONCENTRATED
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL GENERALLY LEAN ON THE NAM FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER NNE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC/UPPER LOWS.
AS A RESULT OF THE LONGER DURATION FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. GAVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO EXTENDING THE WATCH INTO JEFF
DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES GIVEN THE RAINFALL OBSERVED THERE TODAY
AND THE RESULTING LOWER FFG VALUES...BUT WITH THE FOCUS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER WEST INTO ERN TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO
HOLD OFF AND ADVISE THE EVENING CREW TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...CAN EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING OVER
ERN TX BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
ALL THIS MESS SHOULD FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW...WITH
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES TOMORROW OVER EAST CENT TX/CENT LA. OTHERWISE...MORE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
Focus expected to shift farther west into Eastern Texas? You mean it hasn't been here already? Geez....we're a big, giant lake over here.
PT, I noticed that yesterday, but I just saw they recently issued one this afternoon. It's not what I was hoping to read.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006
.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD AND AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZED
AS PROMISED...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BEST GUESS SFC LOW POSITION IS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION
AS OF 21Z...WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 30-40KT H85 LLJ
CONTINUING TO FUNNEL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALSO OF
INTEREST...AND SOME CONCERN...ARE THE PALESTINE AND WINNFIELD
PROFILERS AT 250MB...WHICH IMPLY AT LEAST SOME UPPER DIVERGENT
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
KLCH 88D SHOWED WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OFFSHORE...OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SW LOUISIANA. THERE IS ALSO
AN APPARENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX LIFTING NNE THROUGH ERN TX
ATTM...JUST WEST OF HARDIN COUNTY...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ENHANCED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THUS FAR...NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PERFORMED BETTER WITH THIS SCENARIO
THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHOWING A DEEPER AND MORE CONCENTRATED
SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL GENERALLY LEAN ON THE NAM FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER NNE PROGRESSION OF THE
SFC/UPPER LOWS.
AS A RESULT OF THE LONGER DURATION FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. GAVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO EXTENDING THE WATCH INTO JEFF
DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES GIVEN THE RAINFALL OBSERVED THERE TODAY
AND THE RESULTING LOWER FFG VALUES...BUT WITH THE FOCUS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FARTHER WEST INTO ERN TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO
HOLD OFF AND ADVISE THE EVENING CREW TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...CAN EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING OVER
ERN TX BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
ALL THIS MESS SHOULD FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW...WITH
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES TOMORROW OVER EAST CENT TX/CENT LA. OTHERWISE...MORE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
Focus expected to shift farther west into Eastern Texas? You mean it hasn't been here already? Geez....we're a big, giant lake over here.
Last edited by southerngale on Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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