93E Invest in EPAC

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cycloneye
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93E Invest in EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:32 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932006) ON 20060726 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060726 1800 060727 0600 060727 1800 060728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.0N 91.0W 8.2N 93.7W 8.6N 96.0W 9.0N 98.0W
BAMM 8.0N 91.0W 8.2N 92.9W 8.8N 94.5W 9.3N 95.7W
LBAR 8.0N 91.0W 8.2N 93.2W 8.9N 95.5W 9.8N 97.9W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060728 1800 060729 1800 060730 1800 060731 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.1N 100.0W 8.6N 104.1W 7.2N 108.5W 6.5N 113.1W
BAMM 9.8N 97.0W 10.2N 100.1W 10.0N 103.6W 10.5N 106.5W
LBAR 10.5N 100.3W 12.5N 105.5W 14.2N 111.0W 14.5N 115.2W
SHIP 47KTS 51KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 47KTS 51KTS 55KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 91.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 88.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The EPAC continues to be active,now a new disturbance is being watched for potential for development.
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:40 pm

Active alrighty.. Nothing on NRL yet.. NHC make no mention in the TWO but you can see the broad circulation on sattelite..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/avn-l.jpg
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:42 pm

Aquawind wrote:Active alrighty.. Nothing on NRL yet.. NHC make no mention in the TWO but you can see the broad circulation on sattelite..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/avn-l.jpg


They just put it up at NRL'S backup site.
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:45 pm

LOL.. I just knew you were gonna say that.. for some reason my NRL page does not show it again.. Can you please post your link for me? This happened earlier this year as well..
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:56 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Main NRL site :uarrow:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Backup NRL Site :uarrow:

Paul,the main site has had problems in the past and today it has again as I can't refresh it so you are not alone. :) Thankfully they have the backup site.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:58 pm

here we go EPAC again :roll:
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 26, 2006 2:59 pm

Come on Eastern Pacific wahooo!!!
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Come on Eastern Pacific wahooo!!!


Predicted final score:

EPAC: 100

Atlantic: 3

no just kidding but wow the EPAC has the show for 2006 so far. Are we sure there is no el nino??? :lol:
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:02 pm

Its perfectly normal right now...The Eastern Pacific expects 6 named storms by the end of this month on normal.
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#10 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:04 pm

So far the EPAC is doing well.. No serious landfalls and yet some moisture might be getting pushed up into the desert sw.

Thanks Luis! :D
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Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:10 pm

This is the climatological PEAK of the EPAC season. It is supposed to be mroe active than the Atlantic at this time of year
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#12 Postby bombarderoazul » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:40 pm

What is the next name on the list?
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 26, 2006 3:40 pm

bombarderoazul wrote:What is the next name on the list?


Fabio
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#14 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:07 pm

Sounds like a male model.
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#15 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 26, 2006 4:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:This is the climatological PEAK of the EPAC season. It is supposed to be mroe active than the Atlantic at this time of year

Last year the peak of the Epac was late August to mid September.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html

Same goes for the 2004, 2003, 2002.... and it goes on from there.
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#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 5:14 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its perfectly normal right now...The Eastern Pacific expects 6 named storms by the end of this month on normal.


The Atlantic, on the other hand, normally has only one named storm at the end of July...
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 26, 2006 5:44 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 262234
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO OR ALSO ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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#18 Postby bombarderoazul » Wed Jul 26, 2006 6:28 pm

This means the EPAC is slightly above average.
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 6:41 pm

I'd give this a 60% chance of development in the favorable conditions.
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#20 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:52 pm

If there was an El Nino, the WPAC would have been more active than it has been.
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