98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#321 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:32 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:What a shame. If only "Chris" was over water longer.

There was never a Chris...it was never over water. Grace did haev a closed circulation...

SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TD-11 HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE.

From the advisory that upgraded Grace. There was a low over water...it was weak and loose...but it was there. The recon found numerous areas with light and variable winds where the lowest pressure was. There were some west winds. The circulation was just very broad.

There was no closed low EVER over water with this. This was never "technically" some sort of TD/TS.

HouTXmetro · #322 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:33 am

look at the cold cloud types, AMAZING!!!! :eek:

HurricaneHunter914 · #323 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:34 am

But it did have TD/TS force winds.

#324 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:34 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Maybe in the Post Season Reports they might call it the Unamed tropical Storm, since this indeed had an LLC and TS force winds.

No! Can you tell me where the LLC was? There was a low over land. Never a low over water.

It doesn't work that way.

Swimdude · #325 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:34 am

Stupid 98L...

I had to get my drivers license renewed early this morning. I swear it hasn't stopped pouring in West Houston for 6 hours. It took 45 minutes to make a 15 minute trip - both ways. Yeesh... We've probably had 3-4 inches here already.

#326 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:35 am

A disturbance needs to have a well-defined LLC to be called a depression. 98L never had one, stiill doesn't. Just a broad weak low center well inland.

#327 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:35 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:But it did have TD/TS force winds.

So do tropical waves. Do you want to upgrade them too? There have been hundreds of waves move through the E CAR that gave them 60 mph winds...that never developed. Should we give them a name?

That is why we have criteria.

HurricaneHunter914 · #328 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:36 am

OK, thanks for letting me know.

#329 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:43 am

NHC will never call this a TS because it doesn't meet their definition. Even if they change their definition someday (which I doubt) I don't see them backdating the change. The storm off Cape Cod might be called an unnamed storm eventually but not this.
The NHC isn't for keeping records, it's for predicting and warning about the most dangerous type of storm out there. As the storm came in, the NWS is perfectly suited to handling this storm. Whether this is called a TD or not doesn't affect the ability of the NHC to warn the public. Although I do wish there were a name besides "tropical storm" IMO it's very odd that we are always getting storms that are tropical but not tropical storms. :lol:

HouTXmetro · #330 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:46 am

Why do the biggest burst of convection continiue to devlop offshore with this system?

#331 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:49 am

curtadams wrote:NHC will never call this a TS because it doesn't meet their definition. Even if they change their definition someday (which I doubt) I don't see them backdating the change. The storm off Cape Cod might be called an unnamed storm eventually but not this.
The NHC isn't for keeping records, it's for predicting and warning about the most dangerous type of storm out there. As the storm came in, the NWS is perfectly suited to handling this storm. Whether this is called a TD or not doesn't affect the ability of the NHC to warn the public. Although I do wish there were a name besides "tropical storm" IMO it's very odd that we are always getting storms that are tropical but not tropical storms.

It's good now-a-days that th NHC is big on classifying sub-tropical storms. I remember a storm back in the mid-80s...can't remember the year...but it was in Oct/Nov...that was clearly a subtropical storm/hybrid...that now a days would be classified...which did not get attention from the NHC back then. It was putting down 50 mph wind gusts along the coast and tides 3-4' above normal. Pressures were in the 1002 mb range (long time ago...hard to remember right). Today it would be given a proper designation. Back then...there were gale warning out...and the local guys covered it...but that was it...and we waited to see if it would turn tropical.

Anyone remember that event?

#332 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:54 am

HouTXmetro wrote::?: Why do the biggest burst of convection continiue to devlop offshore with this system?

That's where the moisture is...and that is there the vortmax is currently strongest....plus the upper level divergence is currently at its greatest JUST off the coast...east of Corpus.

#333 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:56 am

The Yates jury is coming back with a verdict today...that's probably the REAL reason the sky is opening up with all the rain....not the tropical system. :cry:

HouTXmetro · #334 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:57 am

Air Force Met wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote::?: Why do the biggest burst of convection continiue to devlop offshore with this system?

That's where the moisture is...and that is there the vortmax is currently strongest....plus the upper level divergence is currently at its greatest JUST off the coast...east of Corpus.

Is the vort max progged to move towards Houston? I also noticed there is not much convection Near Victoria.

#335 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:59 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote::?: Why do the biggest burst of convection continiue to devlop offshore with this system?

That's where the moisture is...and that is there the vortmax is currently strongest....plus the upper level divergence is currently at its greatest JUST off the coast...east of Corpus.

Is the vort max progged to move towards Houston? I also noticed there is not much convection Near Victoria.

Slowly.

HouTXmetro · #336 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:03 pm

thank god most of the Bayous are handling the water well with the exception of a few. I guess the big question is if there is potential for a big nocturnal rain event in addition to what is happening now.

#337 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:09 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:thank god most of the Bayous are handling the water well with the exception of a few. I guess the big question is if there is potential for a big nocturnal rain event in addition to what is happening now.

That's what I'm wondering myself at this point. There is virtually nothing west of 75-100 miles west of Houston until you get off the coast. Is this mess going to move out today or stick around?

#338 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:12 pm

Also, it looks like the Low is moving from Wharton/Matagorda into Brazoria/Fort Bend - it looks like it is moving more East than North.

#339 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:12 pm

Air Force Met wrote:The Yates jury is coming back with a verdict today...that's probably the REAL reason the sky is opening up with all the rain....not the tropical system.

I wonder if that means next summer (likely June or July), Tropical Storm or Hurricane Andrea will devastate the area?

HouTXmetro · #340 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:13 pm

Just in, Bear Creek @ Clay road in West Houston has topped it's banks.

Flood Stage 116ft
Current Water Level 119ft

http://www.hcoem.org/staff_cache/stream_2159.html

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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