Active Early Season, BOC/GOM tropical disturbances

[HouTXmetro]

Technically we can say the season is off to a slow/normal start. But honestly, the BOC/GOM has produced several Tropical disturbances which were right on the brink of being depressions and were as strong as a weak TD's in term of rainfall events. So can we really say the season isn't active yet?

Iv'e gotten almost 28 inches of rain since the start of Hurricane Season.

[curtadams]

Plus a similar not-quite-storm in the Carolinas and an ignored probable TS off Cape Cod. Yes, I'd agree this is an active season even though we only have two named storms.

[HurricaneHunter914]

98L would have been Chris, but it was already over land.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could be a sign that the western Gulf will be active later on. All this activity shows me that system will be able to hold their own or even strengthen once they get past 90W.

[HouTXmetro]

What about patterns, the WGULF has seen alot of sytems/moisture riding up the MX coast towards Texas. DO early June/July patterns usually hold during August & early September?

[Opal storm]

This could be a sign that the western Gulf will be active later on. All this activity shows me that system will be able to hold their own or even strengthen once they get past 90W.

Remember last year when the central/eastern Gulf coast (LA to FL panhandle) recieve heavy rain events and saw several hurricanes and tropical storms while Texas remained dry?It is almost the very opposite of that this year with the central/eastern Gulf in a drought and we haven't seen any tropical disturbances (well,besides Alberto) while the western Gulf has been getting drenched.IMO if there are any major storms in the Gulf this season they will probably head west towards Texas or Mexico if this pattern we're in right now remains.

[Stormcenter]

I would have say it's been a quiet season "so far" compared to the last few seasons and I hope it continues. We are not getting many disturbances surviving the trek accross the Atlantic and it's almost August. For the most part conditions have been hostile for majority of the season (so far) in the Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Yes I know it's still way too early in the season to celebrate but these have been good early signs that things won't be as hectic as last season.

[Opal storm]

What about patterns, the WGULF has seen alot of sytems/moisture riding up the MX coast towards Texas. DO early June/July patterns usually hold during August & early September?

We'll just have to wait and see.I think later on in the season (late sept and October) the threat shifts more east due to deeper cold fronts..

[HouTXmetro]

I would have say it's been a quiet season "so far" compared to the last few seasons and I hope it continues. We are not getting many disturbances surviving the trek accross the Atlantic and it's almost August. For the most part conditions have been hostile for majority of the season (so far) in the Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Yes I know it's still way too early in the season to celebrate but these have been good early signs that things won't be as hectic as last season.

not quite, 2004 didn't get it's first names storm until August right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would have say it's been a quiet season "so far" compared to the last few seasons and I hope it continues. We are not getting many disturbances surviving the trek accross the Atlantic and it's almost August. For the most part conditions have been hostile for majority of the season (so far) in the Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Yes I know it's still way too early in the season to celebrate but these have been good early signs that things won't be as hectic as last season.

not quite, 2004 didn't get it's first names storm until August right?

Correct. Alex did not form until July 31st during the 2004 season.

[Johnny]

Yep, and after Alex got out of the way, all heck broke loose. We will see an LLC form very soon I'm afraid...then another one....and another....and another...and..............................

[KatDaddy]

All I can say is the Upper TX Coast does not need any tropical threat over the upcoming weeks after being completely saturated. We would have severe flooding should a TS much less a H make landfall nearby and dump 10-20" of rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All I can say is the Upper TX Coast does not need any tropical threat over the upcoming weeks after being completely saturated. We would have severe flooding should a TS much less a H make landfall nearby and dump 10-20" of rain.

I agree completely. I hope all tropical systems avoid TX this year, but my fear is that we will not be so lucky. If we get any kind of hurricane hit on the state this year (which I think we will), then we may find ourselves in a bad situation.

[Swimdude]

Yep, and after Alex got out of the way, all heck broke loose. We will see an LLC form very soon I'm afraid...then another one....and another....and another...and..............................

I love the way you put that!

[CrazyC83]

Remember, we'd be at Debby now if two organized lows hadn't run out of time to develop...and four storms by the end of July is a rare event...

I would not be surprised if at least one of the two lows was declared an unnamed tropical storm in the post-season analysis. (The NC low in late June had 2/3 of a closed circulation at final check, and this did have one after landfall but not before)

[shaggy]

Plus a similar not-quite-storm in the Carolinas and an ignored probable TS off Cape Cod. Yes, I'd agree this is an active season even though we only have two named storms.

i also believe that the NHC may have been able to classify the system about a month ago tha made landfall on Eastern NC it had a small area of winds over TS force along the outer banks but didnt close off until it was over land thats when the North wind was finally observed!

[gatorcane]

This could be a sign that the western Gulf will be active later on. All this activity shows me that system will be able to hold their own or even strengthen once they get past 90W.

Quite the contrary, in the past couple of seasons we have seen weak, teaser storms around the western GOM and Carolinas, then FL has gotten pounded by the powerful storms later in the season and in one case NOLA got pounded.

The way I see, if the western GOM is seeing activity early in the season nature has done her job to remove "excess heat" in that area already....certainly this season I think there is plenty of excess heat left in the western GOM and off the Carolinas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could be a sign that the western Gulf will be active later on. All this activity shows me that system will be able to hold their own or even strengthen once they get past 90W.

Quite the contrary, in the past couple of seasons we have seen weak, teaser storms around the western GOM and Carolinas, then FL has gotten pounded by the powerful storms later in the season and in one case NOLA got pounded.

The way I see, if the western GOM is seeing activity early in the season nature has done her job to remove "excess heat" in that area already....certainly this season I think there is plenty of excess heat left in the western GOM and off the Carolinas.

I have to disagree. Last year the central and eastern Gulf was pounded by Arlene, Cindy and Dennis early in the season and was still able to pull off Katrina later on.

The high level in activity in the western Gulf shows that the atmosphere in that area has the ability to quickly blow things up (and it also shows there is a tropical flow into that area). Even though nothing has been named over there yet, there have certainly been many strong storms. The same should be said for the East coast this year. There have been many early disturbances (including Beryl) in that area and it will probably lead to an active season for them.

[Bluefrog]

just let it be very very very quiet for the rest of the season ... SHHHHH ...don't tell mother nature that she slacking compared to last year .....

[PTrackerLA]

This could be a sign that the western Gulf will be active later on. All this activity shows me that system will be able to hold their own or even strengthen once they get past 90W.

Quite the contrary, in the past couple of seasons we have seen weak, teaser storms around the western GOM and Carolinas, then FL has gotten pounded by the powerful storms later in the season and in one case NOLA got pounded.

The way I see, if the western GOM is seeing activity early in the season nature has done her job to remove "excess heat" in that area already....certainly this season I think there is plenty of excess heat left in the western GOM and off the Carolinas.

I have to disagree. Last year the central and eastern Gulf was pounded by Arlene, Cindy and Dennis early in the season and was still able to pull off Katrina later on.

The high level in activity in the western Gulf shows that the atmosphere in that area has the ability to quickly blow things up (and it also shows there is a tropical flow into that area). Even though nothing has been named over there yet, there have certainly been many strong storms. The same should be said for the East coast this year. There have been many early disturbances (including Beryl) in that area and it will probably lead to an active season for them.

Don't forget about Rita, she made landfall in the northwestern gulf and was the worst storm to affect the areas she did in many many decades.