98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[tailgater]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar. ... P&loop=yes
This only radar but I'd be very surprised if the LLC or lowest pressure isn't located over Baffin Bay

[westchesterweather]

I am just glad to be seeing some rain here!!! Weather or not there is a LLC or any type of circulation, the Gulf coast is definately going to get a good soakin'... I think we can all agree on that....

Yes, that is definitely the main problem here...everyone needs to keep an eye on the bayou's and for flash flooding for the next 24 hours...stay safe.

[teal61]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=CRP&loop=yes
This only radar but I'd be very surprised if the LLC isn't located over Baffin Bay

A little longer CRP radar loop here.

http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/radarloo ... pdir=brefs

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR MCALLEN NORTHEASTWARD TO BAFFIN BAY IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN SQUALLS... OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OR DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION...THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[tailgater]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=CRP&loop=yes
This only radar but I'd be very surprised if the LLC isn't located over Baffin Bay

A little longer CRP radar loop here.

http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/radarloo ... pdir=brefs

Thanks 61, I have already added to my favs.

[westchesterweather]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=CRP&loop=yes
This only radar but I'd be very surprised if the LLC or lowest pressure isn't located over Baffin Bay

GREAT CALL with the LLC! Read the TWO above.

[teal61]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

Maybe he is being negative about it because there is no LLC??? And, can you show me where being negative about this system has gotten him into trouble wrt forecasting?

I never said there was a llc. And as far as 57 goes, I was only pointing out that he hasn't been bullish on development. I really don't understand your comment about "show me where being negative about this system has gotten him into trouble wrt forecasting?"

[tailgater]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=CRP&loop=yes
This only radar but I'd be very surprised if the LLC or lowest pressure isn't located over Baffin Bay

GREAT CALL with the LLC! Read the TWO above.[/quote Thank you very much.

[NDG]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

I'll have to agree with Teal on this one, 57 told you guys two days ago that this system was going to be dead by now, because he has been forecasting the whole system to move ashore into MX then and into TX now for the two whole days now, and it hasn't, the whole system has been basically moving parallel to the western GOM coastline, I respect 57's forecast's opinion but this system has not acted along his thinking. Of course there is no LLC yet or maybe never with this system, but some people can not help their excitement just on the possibilities.

[Stormcenter]

Hey AFM! We will have some tropical rains. All this talk about the LLC which does not exist over the GOM.....when will it ever end? Sorry for the sacrasm but we have no LLC everyone. Wxman57 has been telling us all day but many refuse to listen.

With all due respect Kat, this is why most of us are here. I don't see a low level center yet, but I do see a mlc and most of the pro's would acknowlege that. How many of these systems have you seen just hang around and finally develop ? In the end it probably will not matter whether it spins down to the surface or not , the result is gonna be the same..lots of rain for somebody.

As far as 57 goes, he's been very negative about this system for the last couple of days. But it's still around...

I'll have to agree with Teal on this one, 57 told you guys two days ago that this system was going to be dead by now, because he has been forecasting the whole system to move ashore into MX then and into TX now for the two whole days now, and it hasn't, the whole system has been basically moving parallel to the western GOM coastline, I respect 57's forecast's opinion but this system has not acted along his thinking. Of course there is no LLC yet or maybe never with this system, but some people can not help their excitement just on the possibilities.

I also agree with Teal. By the way, NHC believes the possibility is there and I guess that's what matters.

[teal61]

Ok back to our regularly scheduled posting. It appears now we might have or at least have the beginings of a LLC over the water, not much water but water nevertheless. Lets see what happens.

[Stratosphere747]

Ok back to our regularly scheduled posting. It appears now we might have or at least have the beginings of a LLC over the water, not much water but water nevertheless. Lets see what happens.

Not to toot the horn...

But the obs we both posted were right at.....

[Grease Monkey]

After all they are "The Hurricane Authority."

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like we might see a TD or a Weak TS from 98L if that LLC can form over Baffin Bay.

[Javlin]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Its a bigger picture for sure but the elongation of clouds is NNE and has been this for the day.I would suspect movement in that direction for a little while.Is there an LLC to hard to say as of yet need a good visible in the morning if the convection should persist all night.That convection has grown considerably in the last 6hrs or so.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow will be decisive for 98L. TD #3, Chris, or nothing, tomorrow we will have the answer.

[Grease Monkey]

Tomorrow will be decisive for 98L. TD #3, Chris, or nothing, tomorrow we will have the answer.

Pretty bold prediction. Are you really sure about that?

[cheezyWXguy]

I hope this isnt chris...I want my name to be a significant storm, just like the wave east of the antillies has potential to become...i maybe focusing more on that than this if the shower activity continues to increase

-chris

[HurricaneHunter914]

Tomorrow will be decisive for 98L. TD #3, Chris, or nothing, tomorrow we will have the answer.

Pretty bold prediction. Are you really sure about that?

I think what Hurakan meant was that tomorrow determines whether this becomes TD #3, TS Chris, H Chris (very unlikely), or nothing.

[Stratosphere747]

AFM...

While we have learned not to look at radar for a closed low to begin forming.

Does this constant area of Tstorm activity that has basically sat for the last two hours between Corpus and Brownsville give any reason to be suspicious?

Seems as if the energy has slowed down?

It will give you the place to watch the sfc pressures...especially if there is a mid level spin. As Derek pointed out today, there has been some research done (it was submitted to the AMS last year in Feb) on the importance mid level vorticity plays in tropical cyclogenesis.

What has me a little concerned...especially as far as a core rain event for tonight is concerned...is that the area of precip is so well developed during the diurnal min...I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max.

Especially given the models insistance that some good mid-level vorticity is supposed to set up over the coastal bend/SETX area around sunrise.

We could have a real problem on our hands come 8 am in the Houston/GLS area if this core rain event sets up.

Almost looks like we are seeing this happening now, though thankfully offshore. That area between Corpus and Brownsville has yet to move in the last three hours..