98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[SouthFloridawx]

So then the circulation apparent on KBRO radar is Mid-Level right?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I believe you need to look at a longer loop, perhaps 3 hours. I can see a broad mid-level spin about 120 miles across centered inland NW of Brownsville. There's one flare-up of squalls on the eastern periphery of this ring, probably what you're referring to as the circulation. But I'm not sure if there is a circulation aloft there. Could be, but it could also be that the decaying squall sent out an outflow boundary to the south that makes it look like a spin. Really hard to tell.

In any case, echoes that far from radar are well above the surface. My current software doesn't let me measure beam height, but I'd estimage the beam is maybe at 7000- 10,000 feet or so at that distance from BRO.

Ok that's what I figured being that far away from the site. Thanks for clearing that up.

[stormtruth]

Tim was pretty decent while in Dallas but got canned to make room for Dan Henry from D.C. - who IMO is more style than substance. Dan will never have the brain arsenal possessed by David Finfrock.

Or the looks of Kristine Kahanek.

Hey...I went to A&M with Kris. She was president of TAMSCAMS while I was there. Wish I still had my shirt...but it turned into lint a long time ago.

TAMSCAMS=Texas A&M Student Chapter of the AMS.

I've told my wife that I bet Kristine was pretty popular in meteorology school. I bet she didn't have much trouble finding lab partners.

That said, she's not just a pretty face on TV. She knows what she's talking about, hence being the Chief Meteorologist at KTXT here in DFW.

hmm... i'm not seeing any links to photos of this pretty meteorologist.

[Grease Monkey]

If it looks like duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck. Then it must be___.

A tropical disturbance without a well-defined LLC?

You mean a VERY impressive tropical disturbance.

No guys. A "duck." Geez that was too easy.

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe it is just a factor of actually being able to track the movement of the storms and not so much a LLC, now that it is closer to local radars.

But it seems that our suspicious are to the NE of Brownsville and SW of Corpus has come to a halt, and looks very healthy on radar...

[george_r_1961]

Last few frames shows a definite MLC or possible even an LLC off Brownsville. It has a little time over water yet before landfall..maybe 24 hours..so I would not be surprised to see tropical cyclone formation at all. The main threat from this will be heavy rains and some gusty winds especially over central and eastern texas and much of coastal LA..along with a few tornadoes/watertspouts in some of the heavier squalls.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 26N99W MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KT.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THE
SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IF ANOTHER CENTER EMERGES OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.



8 PM Discussion.

[Stormavoider]

Look at the eye feature.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

You can see three of these eye features near 27N. What are these? Mid level centers? Eddies? ???

[teal61]

Pressures do drop daily as a regular cycle.. It looks like it dropped yesterday afternoon as well.. Lets see if the downward trend continues..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

True, though that was a bit of a healthy drop...

Too bad it's over two hours old..

Just updated at 6:50 pm still showing healthy pressure falls. JB did a special post to mention this in fact.

Down to 1009.6mb was 1012.5 earlier today.

[Stratosphere747]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 26N99W MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KT.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THE
SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IF ANOTHER CENTER EMERGES OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.



8 PM Discussion.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN
TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.


Not quite word for word, but dang close, from the 2pm update...

Sure has not moved much according to this disco...

[sealbach]

it's a dead duck rain maker, imo

[Stratosphere747]

Pressures do drop daily as a regular cycle.. It looks like it dropped yesterday afternoon as well.. Lets see if the downward trend continues..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

True, though that was a bit of a healthy drop...

Too bad it's over two hours old..

Just updated at 6:50 pm still showing healthy pressure falls. JB did a special post to mention this in fact.

Has to peak the interest level...Constant drop for the last 3/4 hours, though that storm in its vicinity has had little movement...

[Stormavoider]

Look at the eye feature.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

You can see three of these eye features near 27N. What are these? Mid level centers? Eddies? ???

[george_r_1961]

Look at the eye feature.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

You can see three of these eye features near 27N. What are these? Mid level centers? Eddies? ???

Eddies most likely I think.

[Stormavoider]

Look at the eye feature.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

You can see three of these eye features near 27N. What are these? Mid level centers? Eddies? ???

Eddies most likely I think.

Make that four. I'll bet its got to do with the low sun angle.

[sealbach]

I even wonder if the bullseye of all the rain will ever make it on shore? It's been consistently staying offshore of texas for the most part.

[Thunder44]

868
WHXX01 KWBC 260040
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060726 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060726 0000 060726 1200 060727 0000 060727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.9N 97.4W 28.2N 97.0W 29.5N 97.0W 30.8N 97.5W
BAMM 26.9N 97.4W 28.3N 97.5W 29.5N 97.6W 30.7N 98.1W
A98E 26.9N 97.4W 28.2N 96.1W 30.1N 95.1W 31.4N 94.6W
LBAR 26.9N 97.4W 28.1N 97.2W 29.1N 97.2W 30.2N 97.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060728 0000 060729 0000 060730 0000 060731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.0N 97.7W 33.8N 97.9W 35.2N 97.3W 36.3N 96.7W
BAMM 31.9N 98.4W 34.1N 99.2W 36.1N 99.0W 38.2N 98.3W
A98E 32.7N 93.8W 34.2N 92.1W 35.3N 90.1W 35.0N 87.3W
LBAR 31.6N 97.6W 35.3N 96.4W 38.1N 90.6W 36.8N 83.5W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 41KTS 37KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.9N LONCUR = 97.4W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 97.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 97.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[jasons2k]

I will have to say on satellite one of the most impressive un-named storms I've seen. It has good outflow presentation, esp. to the east.

Edited: I meant un-named, sorry

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wilma was the most if not one of the most impressive named storms I'v seen. Theres more like Gilbert,Katrina,Ivan,Rita,Daniel. In alot more.

[Ivanhater]

Well this thing looks spectacular! I have to say I did not expect it to look this good...

[Stormavoider]

I will have to say on satellite one of the most impressive named storms I've seen. It has good outflow presentation, esp. to the east.

I agree. I think this system is extremely unique. Instead of one center it is one big pot of tropical gumbo. Looking at the 00:15 visible frame, there are four tropical systems budding. Has anyone seen anything quite like this before?