Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

#261 Postby **Fego** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:19 pm

Ehhh.. I'm lost. Between these complaints and sarcastic remarks, umm, what does JB say about the tropical wave in the Atlantic?

Extremeweatherguy · #262 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:57 pm

Fego wrote:Ehhh.. I'm lost. Between these complaints and sarcastic remarks, umm, what does JB say about the tropical wave in the Atlantic?

He hasn't said anything about it since this morning, but should post about it again tonight.

Rainband · #263 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 8:14 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Rainband wrote:I have been really busy so I forget. Has he verified anything so far this season?? I am not bashing him but I am just curious. Thanks Daniel. Figures you are in Florida and there [b]may[/] be action in the western GOM.
lol, yes I know. However, if his threat for next week pans out then I will be back in TX to see it. As for him verifying...yes he has, and here are a few examples:

-He called for something to develop in the general area of Alberto over 7 days out. He also got the general track of Alberto correct.

-He has correctly called the many TX "disturbances" so far this year. None of them have actually gone the extra step and developed, but some have come quite close (and the current one may actually do so).

-He called for Beryl in Advance and correctly predicted the general path. The only issues he had with Beryl were the fact that it did not get quite as strong as he thought it might of, and it was a little further offshore the coast of NJ then he expected.

Thanks Daniel. I really didn't have time to go back and listen to his interview. I wasn't bashing JB so I hope no one thought I was.

#264 Postby **OuterBanker** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:08 am

I will take last night's comment that the east coast is done until after Aug 5 (although he thinks it could open up for tropical develop 10th to 20th). I'll take it, lots of company until Aug 4, good news. Still hope he's wrong about landfall for season though :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #265 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:52 pm

The wave entering the Caribbean:

JB said he would make an official "call" on what he thinks the wave will do on Friday, but as of tonight he fears that this may end up in the western Gulf during the middle part of next week. Can't wait until Friday to see what he has to say then.

Also: He thinks the east coast should be safe until the 2nd week of August, and does not believe the models that take this wave north.

Extremeweatherguy · #266 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:06 pm

JB's latest tropical ideas:

-He says there are 3 areas to monitor right now. These are the wave in the Caribbean, the one behind it, and the one that is getting all the attention in the eastern Atlantic which JB thinks is already a TD. According to them...these all need to be watched closely.

-He thinks a big uprise in tropical activity is ahead (which I think we can all agree with).

BTW: He thinks the wave in the Caribbean is heading toward the Gulf.

edenisleswx · #267 Postby **edenisleswx** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:10 pm

[BTW: He thinks the wave in the Caribbean is heading toward the Gulf.[/quote]

I've heard quite a few mets voice this same opinion - it will be interesting to see.

#268 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:17 pm

edenisleswx wrote:[BTW: He thinks the wave in the Caribbean is heading toward the Gulf.

I've heard quite a few mets voice this same opinion - it will be interesting to see.[/quote]

I think just about everyone agrees with the fact it will head into the GOM. the question is whether conditions will allow it to develop, which doesn't look likely for at least a few more days from what I have been reading.

x-y-no · #269 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:28 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB's latest tropical ideas:

-He says there are 3 areas to monitor right now. These are the wave in the Caribbean, the one behind it, and the one that is getting all the attention in the eastern Atlantic which JB thinks is already a TD. According to them...these all need to be watched closely.

Hmmm ... 99L is definitely not a TD yet.

I'm not too impressed with the prospects of the other two, but I agree they need to be watched.

-He thinks a big uprise in tropical activity is ahead (which I think we can all agree with).

Certainly no argument there.

BTW: He thinks the wave in the Caribbean is heading toward the Gulf.

No argument there either. I'm just pretty doubtful of development. Can't totally rule it out, though. I was more bullish a couple of days ago about the possibility of western Caribbean or Gulf development.

Extremeweatherguy · #270 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:32 pm

JB's evening thoughts on...

The Atlantic system (99L):

JB continues to say that he thinks this IS a depression. And this was the definition he gave for a depression:

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs.

He thinks this will turn more NW in the short term and then back W in the future. Just something to think about.

The Caribbean Wave:

JB thinks this will be a Gulf issue and says that the upper low will probably ventilate it as it passes underneath. Basically he said that this area needs to be watched as it tracks onward.

Also, he pointed out:

-The WRF model is out of control with the Caribbean system, and this could be an indication of what's to come.

-other basins are quieting down.

Stratosphere747 · #271 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 8:46 pm

Then we better use the abacus system for TC designation, if that is how we are defining tropical depressions...

#272 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 10:26 pm

This is a shame...Accuweather is using Joe too much...he is a man with a family

From an Accuweather Sales brochure...

Timely - Bastardi is always available to you 24/7...

#273 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:54 pm

drezee wrote:This is a shame...Accuweather is using Joe too much...he is a man with a family

From an Accuweather Sales brochure...

Timely - Bastardi is always available to you 24/7...

OTOH he has said many times in his columns it's not work to him, it's a passion. He's smart enough to know how he's marketed and I'll bet he's compensated pretty nicely as well. Heck, if I could turn the clock back 10 years I'd love to have a job like his.

Furious George · #274 Postby **Furious George** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:01 pm

JB's grade for July is around a C-. He usually does better, but I believe he called for 2 or 3 named storms before months end, predicted too many GOM threats that never materialized, and many areas that 'concerned' him fizzled out. Though nobody is perfect, I think the pros on this board - wxman57, Derek and AFM have been much more accurate with their tropical analysis for this month.

However, I still like hearing what he has to say. Any word on what he thinks of the wave coming off Africa?

#275 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 7:11 am

Has JB posted anything about Chris yet?

#276 Postby **Starburst** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 8:54 am

Only thing he has said is that he agrees with TPC with overall pattern ideas and also mentions that Chris looks like a Gulf storm to him if it survives over the islands.

Johnny · #277 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 2:23 pm

Whatcha got today EWG?

crab_storm · #278 Postby **crab_storm** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 2:32 pm

Starburst wrote:Only thing he has said is that he agrees with TPC with overall pattern ideas and also mentions that Chris looks like a Gulf storm to him if it survives over the islands.

that's what i was thinking...
another August "C" storm in the gulf.

Extremeweatherguy · #279 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 2:44 pm

Johnny wrote:Whatcha got today EWG?

Starburst covered it pretty well this morning. No updates from JB since then.

bamaboy · #280 Postby **bamaboy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:29 pm

he is good at predicting patterns. Btw what does a subscription cost to see his stuff?

Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

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