98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[chadtm80]

wow.. I really have not been keeping my eye on it. Been busy. But just by looking at it with a "know nothing eye" such as my own it sure looks like it would develop had it been off shore.. But as Chris said.. Still means lots of rain for Texas. Hope everyone is ready. TD or not.. Going to be nasty weather

[Aric Dunn]

Ok well a i oculd find that was anytime recently was in san perlita tx Where there is A SW wind and they are NNW of Brownsville ... So a SW does nto place a center sw of brownsville but more east and north .. and also the airport http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... X&site=BRO here is actually the reporting station which is still north of brownsville

[Air Force Met]

radar out of corpus chrisiti showed very clearly the LLC SW of brownsville but again as of late that has fallen apart and the banding on the south side has changed and pulled north and into the New LLC .. ( that is very clear) as for bouy data ..its a little hard to find becuase of the delay and the fact that most of the reporting stations have no reprots.. but here is what i found.. one sec

think this has been pointed out before...but the only way a radar is going to show a LLC is if the LLC is right next to the radar. Because the radar is pointed up at a .5 degree angle and because the earth is round...once you get any distance from the radar...you are no longer from the sfc.

YOu said the LLC has pulled north and is very clear...but that is at the mid levels. Matter of FACT, the center of the rotation on radar is at about 7500'.

That is WAY above the sfc and not anywhere near the low levels...which is why it is hard to find in the buoy data...because it's not there.

Everyone needs to remember that about radar data.

[jasons2k]

Another thing, like I pointed out earlier today, you can still clearly see the seabreeze front in Cameron County (Brownsville) moving off to the west. If a LLC were located due north or NNE of Brownsville this would not be happening....

[ROCK]

So the MLC is over water and moving NNE. That should give it some time to make it down to the surface if it hurries.....The lil disturbance that could....

[Aric Dunn]

radar out of corpus chrisiti showed very clearly the LLC SW of brownsville but again as of late that has fallen apart and the banding on the south side has changed and pulled north and into the New LLC .. ( that is very clear) as for bouy data ..its a little hard to find becuase of the delay and the fact that most of the reporting stations have no reprots.. but here is what i found.. one sec

think this has been pointed out before...but the only way a radar is going to show a LLC is if the LLC is right next to the radar. Because the radar is pointed up at a .5 degree angle and because the earth is round...once you get any distance from the radar...you are no longer from the sfc.

YOu said the LLC has pulled north and is very clear...but that is at the mid levels. Matter of FACT, the center of the rotation on radar is at about 7500'.

That is WAY above the sfc and not anywhere near the low levels...which is why it is hard to find in the buoy data...because it's not there.

Everyone needs to remember that about radar data.

AAAH .. thankyou forgot to mention that!!! you can still see slight roation even though you are looking at an angle.. and out of the brownsville radar you could clearly see the LLC that the NHC said was SW of brownsville.. and even at that radar site... the LLC has apparently fallen apart /... and besides high res visible help with that statement.. and i only switched to Corpus Cristi to get a better look and the mid level circ i was seeing out of the brownsville radar.. and to make sure it was not just a mid level circulation ..

[ROCK]

Another thing, like I pointed out earlier today, you can still clearly see the seabreeze front in Cameron County (Brownsville) moving off to the west. If a LLC were located due north or NNE of Brownsville this would not be happening....

is that the SB or an outflow boundary??

......oops, no matter it shouldn't be doing that either if a LLC was present.

[Air Force Met]

So the MLC is over water and moving NNE. That should give it some time to make it down to the surface if it hurries.....The lil disturbance that could....

The fact the the spin is moving NNE and not pulling out to the north as the models were forecasting does give it some more time...you may get a little spin up right before it moves ashore into the Matagorda area.

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing, like I pointed out earlier today, you can still clearly see the seabreeze front in Cameron County (Brownsville) moving off to the west. If a LLC were located due north or NNE of Brownsville this would not be happening....

Im not sure that is what you are seeing .. i do not see any seabreeze pusing west any where in tha tcounty or any where.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


maybe earlier it might have looked that way .. as the center was SW of brownsville and would have led to that ... but since then there are SW winds north of BrownsVille!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

And you (can not cant i edited it) Clearly see the LLC that was SW of brownsville elonagte and drfit north and then fall apart.. on that Visible... and that coupled with the SW wind reports coming out of Southern tx tell me that the LLC is no longer there as both radar and satellite back that up ...

[Aric Dunn]

now out of the Brownsville radar. there does apear that he Sea breeze is pussing inland,, which nither supports a low Sw of brownsville or any where in that matter.... which would mean that nothing is all the way to the surface.... but the only thing that says otherwise are the SW wind around southern TX

[Swimdude]

All the local TV Mets here in Houston are predicting 6-8 inches for the Galveston area, and 4-5 inches for most of the greater Houston area. I wouldn't be surprised if this system formed overnight, but the name won't be the significance. It'll be the amount of rain - like a mini-Allison, 2001.