Wave in Central Caribbean

#121 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:38 pm

I think in 24-36 hours we might just see this low come alive

Tampa_God · #122 Postby **Tampa_God** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:00 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:The UKMET is now a little different also...
It is taking what appears to be the northern extent of the wave and moves it just south of the Greater Antilles and then into the GOM with some low level vorticity. Before this UKMET did not show vorticity with this wave in the Caribbean.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Still not much coming from NOGAPS...

Looks interesting. Maybe something in 2-3 days when it gets into a better area?

My questions is, what is that they have behind this?

MortisFL · #123 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:08 pm

It's moving pretty quick. Should impact the islands tomorrow. UKMET seems to take it more into the Caribbean.

#124 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:10 pm

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

x-y-no · #125 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:14 pm

MortisFL wrote:It's moving pretty quick. Should impact the islands tomorrow. UKMET seems to take it more into the Caribbean.

More like 2 days, I think.

TAFB slows it down even more, putting the wave in the islands Friday morning. I think that's too slow, though.

Extremeweatherguy · #126 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:14 pm

storms in NC wrote:A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

The TWO for 11:30am is only good until tomorrow. This is not a forecast for the entire life of the wave, just the next 24 hrs. I think it has a chance down the road in about 72-144 hrs.

x-y-no · #127 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
storms in NC wrote:A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.
The TWO for 11:30am is only good until tomorrow. This is not a forecast for the entire life of the wave, just the next 24 hrs. I think it has a chance down the road in about 72-144 hrs.

Yeah, if it gets into the Caribbean as still a well-defined wave, I think it has a shot. Lots of nice warm water south of Cuba and in most of the western Caribbean. And odds look not so bad for reasonable upper air conditions.

The question is, does it maintain its structure for the next couple of days, or does the dry environment kill it?

ThunderMate · #128 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:38 pm

Is it possible this wave goes north of the islands or through the northern islands and then north of puerto rico into the eastern Bahamas?

Tampa_God · #129 Postby **Tampa_God** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:42 pm

ThunderMate wrote:Is it possible this wave goes north of the islands or through the northern islands and then north of puerto rico into the eastern Bahamas?

It is pretty weak right now to do such a turn. A west movement is the highest possibility.

Thunder44 · #130 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:14 pm

487
ABNT20 KNHC 252111
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

#131 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:20 pm

interesting, the NHC did change their wording slightly and now implies some development is possible albeit it will be slow.

MortisFL · #132 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:25 pm

Looks like more moisture is trying to enter it.

boca · #133 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:37 pm

I don't see the turning I saw yesterday,but I like how the Key West NWS explains what could happen.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC JUST WEST OF LONGITUDE 50W...HAS NO CONVECTION WITH IT BUT
STILL SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL AND ITS AMPLITUDE STRETCHES
NORTH TO 20N AND SOUTH TO ALMOST 10N. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TRACK THIS FEATURE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS...AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY IT
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECEDING MOISTURE.

This is out of Melbourne:

SAT-MON...FCST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED/UNCERTAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING TWD THE STATE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW...BUT HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST AND A LITTLE
LESS AMPLIFIED...BRINGING THE SYSTEM OVER THE STATE INSTEAD OF
BENDING IT NWD JUST TO OUR EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...FOR SAT THE ECM
SHOWS LESS OF A SFC REFLECTION AND ASCD MOISTURE INCREASE...THEN
FOLLOWS IT UP WITH A FAIRLY STOUT SURGE OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE TENDENCY FOR MED RANGE SYSTEMS
FAILING TO SPIN UP AND TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER SOUTH AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE OPEN WAVE. IN SHORT...WHATEVER APPROACHES FL COULD PASS
DIRECTLY OVER FL...OR TO THE SOUTH...OR TO THE EAST. GIVEN THAT THIS
IS IN THE D4-5 TIME FRAME...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS
IN THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BEFORE COMMITTING TO RAISING POPS UP. FCST
WILL STICK WITH MID RANGE SCT POPS FOR NOW.

MAY COME INTO THE KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY
MURKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY
PROGRESS WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...OR WILL SPLIT AND TURN
NORTH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. I WILL KEEP A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST GOING AT THIS TIME...BUT INDICATE A TURN OF WINDS TO SE ON
SUNDAY AS A BEGRUDGING ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT A WAVE OR TROUGH MAY
PASS THE AREA. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON DEVELOPMENT, TIMING,
AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT TO BE SPECIFIC.

Miami NWS wasn't detailed about it so I didn't post on it.

#134 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:47 pm

Tampa_God wrote:
ThunderMate wrote:Is it possible this wave goes north of the islands or through the northern islands and then north of puerto rico into the eastern Bahamas?

It is pretty weak right now to do such a turn. A west movement is the highest possibility.

Oh I wouldn't say that. I have been around to many years. They can turn on a dime at the very last min. Seen it done.It will all depend on the air flow and current, ridges,highs ect.. I wouldn't even take a guess at this time. Way to far out.

ThunderMate · #135 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:53 pm

Well at least the NHC has given it a little credit with changing their TWO wording and also said some slow developement is possible. I think this wave may have a chance to do something with its life....

Extremeweatherguy · #136 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:03 pm

storms in NC wrote:
Tampa_God wrote:
ThunderMate wrote:Is it possible this wave goes north of the islands or through the northern islands and then north of puerto rico into the eastern Bahamas?

It is pretty weak right now to do such a turn. A west movement is the highest possibility.

Oh I wouldn't say that. I have been around to many years. They can turn on a dime at the very last min. Seen it done.It will all depend on the air flow and current, ridges,highs ect.. I wouldn't even take a guess at this time. Way to far out.

the high over the system may be too strong this time for a northward turn. The furthest north I see this going is the Bahamas/Florida. I still think this is a Caribbean and eventual Gulf problem.

**Either way I will have to watch this one. If it heads to FL, then I will be here this weekend when it reaches us, and if it heads to the Gulf I will be back in TX next week if it goes that way.**

#137 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:04 pm

ThunderMate wrote:Well at least the NHC has given it a little credit with changing their TWO wording and also said some slow developement is possible. I think this wave may have a chance to do something with its life....

Off topic a little. But Hubby is to fly out the 1 aug to Gremany for a week. So that gives me a week of fishing here. But with my luck We would get a storm and they ground all flights. :roflmao:

#138 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:04 pm

if this thing can somehow starting blowing up with convection I would venture to say the NHC will become quite interested in it.

Just look how they have changed the tone with a little convection. It will be on the north side of the TUTT low (instead of the south side where the shear would destroy it) and should have some favorable conditions to develop as it gets closer to the Bahamas.

#139 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:08 pm

something else to watch out for especially over the next 24-48 hours. Looks like it is trying to tap some moisture from a feature SW of it - that could certainly enhance the convection over our Low - I am curious to see if that happens. Diurnal activity is the most likely, sometime during the late night hours of each cycle.

ThunderMate · #140 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:17 pm

I noticed that system to the SW of the low too and it does seem it is helping the low out somewhat.....i can't wait to see if convection with get increasingly better over night and tomm.

Wave in Central Caribbean

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