98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[wxman22]

Check out this radar image. The box for the marine warning is on the area of interest. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

Im using Grlevelx and you can clearlyb see that theres a hook type echo forming where the low may be. There defentily could be tropical storm force winds within that hook echo & Grlevelx also indicated a TVS in the echo.

[southerngale]

There's no drought here. lol
We've had flooding in the Golden Triangle FOUR times just since Memorial Day...the horrible drought ended in June. Let's hope this system doesn't make it five.

[Wpwxguy]

If I were to wager on a particular area, I would put my money on that one.

[curtadams]

Check out the rainfall with the radar overlay on any of the long NOAA floater loops. That's some serious water coming down, all the way to New Orleans.

[cycloneye]

The rain isn't having any trouble coming ashore in the Beaumont area. I was in Port Arthur all morning, and here and there and everywhere in between...nothing but rain. It's varied from moderate to heavy, but it's quite consistent. Looking at long range radar, there's no end in sight, but it does get lighter between the heavy bands that come ashore.


Edited to include a radar link: http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

Kelly,any strong winds in those bands that haved moved thru that area?

[duris]

Check out the rainfall with the radar overlay on any of the long NOAA floater loops. That's some serious water coming down, all the way to New Orleans.

It has disspated to almost nothing so far by the time it reaches us. Looks a lot worse on radar than it has been. Of course, it could get worse, but we don't have any watches or warnings up of any sort.

[southerngale]

The rain isn't having any trouble coming ashore in the Beaumont area. I was in Port Arthur all morning, and here and there and everywhere in between...nothing but rain. It's varied from moderate to heavy, but it's quite consistent. Looking at long range radar, there's no end in sight, but it does get lighter between the heavy bands that come ashore.


Edited to include a radar link: http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

Kelly,any strong winds in those bands that haved moved thru that area?

Nah, nothing strong. There's a lot of recorded winds from various reporting stations 25 - 30 mph, with upper 30's on the beach.

[kjun]

Looks like a LLC east of Brownsville. I looks to be heading NNE.

[jasons2k]

Well all the winds are still out of the S and E - so it doesn't look any kind of LLC is forming east of Brownsville, at least not yet.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE CLOUDY 84 72 67 S12 29.87F
PORT ISABEL N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 29.88F
HARLINGEN PTSUNNY 85 74 69 S10 29.86F HX 92
*HEBBRONVILLE PTSUNNY 88 70 55 E9 29.91S HX 92
MCALLEN NOT AVBL
*WESLACO NOT AVBL
FALFURRIAS PTSUNNY 84 73 70 E9 29.87F HX 91
EDINBURG PTSUNNY 84 73 70 E10G16 29.86S HX 91

[Johnny]

Hey Derek, you mentioned that Brownsville recorded east winds. What does that mean?


Edit: I believe jschlitz just answered my question.

[Air Force Met]

Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It's still there. You can't see it on the SSD, but if you were to look at the GHCC loops...you can see it is there...hidden underneath a thin shield of cirrus.

It's moving north and is about to cross the Rio Grande...west of BRO.

[Johnny]

What's your take on this mess AFM?

[Air Force Met]

Looks like a LLC east of Brownsville. I looks to be heading NNE.

I see no LLC east of BRO...just lots of SSE flow. BRO's winds are out of the south at 10 kts.

There is something in the mid-levels....but nothing at the sfc.

[Stormcenter]

I gave an award like this a few years ago on this board for a disturbance.
By the way, it was eventually named but I just can't think of it for the moment.

Well it's that time again.

98L wins hands down for the best looking
No Name Tropical Disturbance of 2006. i don't think we will have another one like it is 2006.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[fwbbreeze]

Well all the winds are still out of the S and E - so it doesn't look any kind of LLC is forming east of Brownsville, at least not yet.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE CLOUDY 84 72 67 S12 29.87F
PORT ISABEL N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 29.88F
HARLINGEN PTSUNNY 85 74 69 S10 29.86F HX 92
*HEBBRONVILLE PTSUNNY 88 70 55 E9 29.91S HX 92
MCALLEN NOT AVBL
*WESLACO NOT AVBL
FALFURRIAS PTSUNNY 84 73 70 E9 29.87F HX 91
EDINBURG PTSUNNY 84 73 70 E10G16 29.86S HX 91

Here are two stations near Brownsville reporting SW winds:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76399.html
http://www.aws.com/aws_2001/asp/obsforecast.asp?id=KBRO

fwbbreeze

[Air Force Met]

What's your take on this mess AFM?

That there is very little chance of development. All the convection is being caused by convergence on the east side of a low, which is over land, some mid-level vorticity and MASSIVE divergence aloft.

You put those factors together and you get major convection in the tropics. I do not believe there will be another low form simply due to the fact the gradient is strong on the east side where the convection is...on the order of 15-20 knots. It is very difficult for a low to form under convection when the gradient in that strong. If this thing had more time...maybe...but there is not enough time IMO.

[wxman22]

Trouble Brewing in the Gulf
Tuesday, July 25, 2006 2:38 PM EDT More News
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure has developed off the Mexican coast just south of Brownsville, Texas. This system will slowly drift to the north over the next 24 hours. It is a matter of time as to whether or not this system can develop into a tropical system. If the low stays over water long enough, then is could quickly bloom into Tropical Storm Chris. However, if it moves onshore too soon, then it will be more noted for being a heavy rainmaker. This graphic shows what to expect in terms of rainfall from the system. the heaviest rain will fall as the storm drifts to the north, the heaviest rain will fall in the right side of the storm as the system draws tropical moisture in off the Gulf of Mexico. This means that heavy rain is in the forecast for the coast of Texas through Wednesday with an average of 2 to 4 inches of rain in the forecast. A few unlucky locations can pick up 6 inches or more of rain. The end result will be localized flooding in some locations that are still recovering from flooding last month. This story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Jonathan

[bbadon]

NE winds here in Cameron LA

[Stormcenter]

Trouble Brewing in the Gulf
Tuesday, July 25, 2006 2:38 PM EDT More News
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are keeping a close eye on a disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure has developed off the Mexican coast just south of Brownsville, Texas. This system will slowly drift to the north over the next 24 hours. It is a matter of time as to whether or not this system can develop into a tropical system. If the low stays over water long enough, then is could quickly bloom into Tropical Storm Chris. However, if it moves onshore too soon, then it will be more noted for being a heavy rainmaker. This graphic shows what to expect in terms of rainfall from the system. the heaviest rain will fall as the storm drifts to the north, the heaviest rain will fall in the right side of the storm as the system draws tropical moisture in off the Gulf of Mexico. This means that heavy rain is in the forecast for the coast of Texas through Wednesday with an average of 2 to 4 inches of rain in the forecast. A few unlucky locations can pick up 6 inches or more of rain. The end result will be localized flooding in some locations that are still recovering from flooding last month. This story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Jonathan

I assume they are referring to the new possible "center" some of mentioned on this board including myself.

[Stormcenter]

Latest visible satellite continues to show a very impressive looking and better organized 98L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html