98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[PTrackerLA]

The thing that concerns me is if it were to form an LLC east of Brownsville it would have at least a day over water, possibly long enough to form Chris.

[TS Zack]

You lose your energy source when the storms move ashore. They are being forced upward by warm gulf waters, which is why there is so much thunderstorm activity. Once they move inland, no more warm waters and with the lack of heating from cloud cover they can not sustain themselves. Dry air in the mid-levels is not helping either but no heating does not allow them to break through it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Actually the water should be warm enough to form a TS within less than a day.

[eyesurvivor]

Posted: Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:46 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
If only we could get the LLC to reform under the convection, then we could have a strong TS or even a Hurricane if this can stay over water long enough.

Galveston Duck wrote
Nah, that's okay....



Here Here!

[PTrackerLA]

You lose your energy source when the storms move ashore. They are being forced upward by warm gulf waters, which is why there is so much thunderstorm activity. Once they move inland, no more warm waters and with the lack of heating from cloud cover they can not sustain themselves. Dry air in the mid-levels is not helping either but no heating does not allow them to break through it.

Sounds like a good explanation to me why the storms can't sustain themselves onshore. Considering the very high rain chances since the weekend it's been a big time bust for rain in my area. For the record we're still in a moderate drought here and over 11" below on the year. We could use another good soaking.

[teal61]

Well the fact that that the convection is somewhat on the increase should be of some interest. Normally you would see an increase during the night and early morning with a decrease in the late morning and afternoon. While there has been some warming of the cloud tops in the last couple of hours, some new areas of heavy thunderstorms seem to be developing just east and northeast of Brownsville in the vicinity of the mlc. Overall it seems to have sustained itself fairly well this morning.

[Noles2006]

Nooooooooo!!! I don't want this to become Chris.... I want CHRIS [which, btw, is the coolest name ever ] to be a record-breaking CAT 5 in the middle of the Atlantic, never threatening anyone, but still beautiful and powerful... not a weak to moderate TS that lives for one day and then dies.....

lol.

[Wpwxguy]

Thats an intense blowup around Brownsville, if a center is trying to form/reform that will probably be the location. I had pretty much given up on it this morning when I saw the circulation over land, but I did think it could reform over water and that may just happen.

[Evil Jeremy]

but where would it go?

[teal61]

but where would it go?

Generally northward.

[Stormcenter]

The 2:05pm EDT discussion is late. I wonder why?

[JonathanBelles]

uhoh

[Derek Ortt]

historically, the 2 P.M. discussion has been issued late (and the 8 a.m. issued early)

[PTrackerLA]

Looking forward to the discussion. There's something fishy going on east of Brownsville I'm afraid.

[Thunder44]

I just saw it on weatherunderground. Doesn't say anything new about this system.

[JonathanBelles]

it just came up...000
AXNT20 KNHC 251814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN
TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES EAST OF THIS WAVE NEAR THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 7N/11N AND 20W/15W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 26N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.
THIS WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST. IT REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W
AND 51W. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS WEAK WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY
A DENSE REGION OF AFRICAN DUST. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N13W 10N46W 14N55W 8N69W AND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS LIES OFF THE COAST
OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 8N/12N AND 15W/19W. PATCHES OF MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS BETWEEN 4N-8N AND 24W-43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG LOCATED BETWEEN COASTAL VENEZUELA AND
14N55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA AND
WEST INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO WHICH IS JUST SOUTH OF
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING SW FROM THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE US. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A
1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SW OF BROWNSVILLE TX
CONTINUES TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN 89W/97W AND 22N/29N.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH CONTINUES TO LIKE OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS/LOW SEAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER 15-20 KT S/SE
FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS HIGH INTERACTS WITH
THE LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SIMILAR SFC CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RATHER BENIGN TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 71W/72W WITH ANOTHER
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BROAD UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N77W
WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR/SAHARAN DUST. THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT MOVED NORTH OF BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEST/CENTRAL
ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH SFC TRADE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIB BUT GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTH FROM 37N45W MEETS AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 27N53W. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC
EXTENDING WEST FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 35N49W. MODERATE
TRADE FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF THIS HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW ALONG 50W. THIS
HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48HRS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING WEST WITH THE STRONGER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH/TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTION. AFRICAN DUST
AND MINIMAL CONVECTION LIE EAST OF THIS WAVE THROUGH THE COAST
OF AFRICA.



$$
WILLIS

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN
TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.



2 PM Discussion about GOM area.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Circulation appears evident on the Visible. Come one 98L just one more named storm (but hopefully a weak TS).

[Stormcenter]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
THE GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN
TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS.



2 PM Discussion about GOM area.

It looks and sound just like a xerox copy of the 8:00am discussion this morning. The low they are referring to looks like it's dissapating and has very little influence on what is happening in the GOM. Oh well who are we to disagree.

[Johnny]

Heck, I thought I was reading the discussion from this morning! lol