98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Frank2]

Re: jschlitz's post

It seems that the outflow is much better defined than anything at the surface, at this time...

Frank

[PTrackerLA]

One of you storm-repellants must be on the island today because everytime it looks like a severe band is moving onshore, it dissipates. Aside from some gusts this morning and one torrential downpour, I haven't had to endure much yet on the east end. On the west end, it was a bit more active earlier, but I still don't see much there on radar.

I hope everyone to the west, north, and east is doing okay.

The same thing is happening here, every band that moves onshore weakens and all we receive in some light rain. Makes me wonder if the predicted rainfall totals will pan out since the storms can't make it onshore. On the other hand there is a definite MLC east of Brownsville, if it were to make it to the surface we could easily have a depression later today.

[Stormcenter]

That's one heck of a wave we've got out there people.

You mean "disturbance" right?

But seriously it does continue to look very impressive convection wise.

[Derek Ortt]

My guess about a Gulf mapping mission is some type of oceanographic research experiment

[cycloneye]

My guess about a Gulf mapping mission is some type of oceanographic research experiment

Ok,thanks for the answer.

[Stratosphere747]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

You can see the MLC, SE of Corpus and moving fairly quickly to the N.

Also the LLC that was inland to the south and then west of Brownsville, looks to have almost completely dissipated.

There is one healthy blow up of convection right on top of Brownsville, though no other LLC seems evident.

[Frank2]

The same thing is happening here, every band that moves onshore weakens and all we receive in some light rain. Makes me wonder if the predicted rainfall totals will pan out since the storms can't make it onshore. On the other hand there is a definite MLC east of Brownsville, if it were to make it to the surface we could easily have a depression later today.

Lots of dry air over Texas, at this time...

[HurricaneHunter914]

If only we could get the LLC to reform under the convection, then we could have a strong TS or even a Hurricane if this can stay over water long enough.

[Johnny]

The low level swirl west of Brownsville looks like it will be a non issue here very shortly per vis satellite loop. The mid level swirl east of Brownsville looks a little bit fishy. High cloud tops seem to be expanding in this area. It might be something to watch.

[GalvestonDuck]

If only we could get the LLC to reform under the convection, then we could have a strong TS or even a Hurricane if this can stay over water long enough.

Nah, that's okay....

[Derek Ortt]

Hurricane?

No chance. A TS, possible

[HurricaneHunter914]

Maybe the LLC is disappating to make way for another LLC that might form under the convection.

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe the LLC is disappating to make way for another LLC that might form under the convection.

I think its possible, that area looks to be the most organized

[vaffie]

Now that's definitely interesting. If true, and I wouldn't argue with the NHC, that would mean that this thing has a chance of strengthening--it's over very warm water, and is going to stay over water until it hits the Upper Texas/Lousiana coasts almost 500 miles away. If you look at the latest satellite images (visible and infrared) of the area they're talking about, you can see small amounts of convection popping up there, and it does almost have a spin to it, if you look at the last two hours. Anyway, we'll have to wait and see.

[Stormavoider]

If EMILIA would give this thing a slight push, I think we would have something.

[Evil Jeremy]

what direction woul it go in if it moves off shore?

[curtadams]

On radar I see a distinct master circ in the vicinity of Brownsville. It's big: the whole arc way out in the gulf is rotating around it. The intense rainfall just off Brownsville is IMO the updraft produced by the center, sheared a bit east of the actual center. The real low level center is probably a bit onshore and quite bare of convection and indeed almost of clouds. Still looks like an interesting conflict between low level flow trying to drag the center deep onshore and kill it with the offshore convection trying to pull it offshore and fire it up.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

There appears to be a spin right off the southern tip of TX. Seems like 98L is fighting to become the third named system of the season.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

There appears to be a spin right off the southern tip of TX. Seems like 98L is fighting to become the third named system of the season.

Hmmmm Chris maybe?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN THE
GENERATION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE NW
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N92W TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE COAST IN WHICH CASE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD DEVELOP. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS.