System expanding into mid-GOM?

[dixiebreeze]

It seems as though 98 is gradually expanding into the mid-GOM. Is it my imagination or is happening. Thoughts anyone?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[beachbum_al]

Of course I am not an expert by no means but I think as this systems moves more northward the rain will move along the Gulf Coast from TX to AL. I know that our rain chances here in Alabama are up for the next three days. Mainly afternoon showers but we did have one this morning. I have to say it does look bigger but that is from my blind eyes.

[dixiebreeze]

According to the 11:30 a.m. TWO, this thing COULD expand farther into the GOM. It wouldn't be all that surprising -- a lot of very warm water and ripe conditions overall.

[Hohwxny]

According to the 11:30 a.m. TWO, this thing COULD expand farther into the GOM. It wouldn't be all that surprising -- a lot of very warm water and ripe conditions overall.

I'm sorry...could you point out where they say that:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE OVER THE GULF...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[LaBreeze]

Does anyone here think that this will develop into anything and if so, where would it possibly head? Just wondering not -removed- by no means.

[dwg71]

IMO the NHC would be very quick to upgrade and put up warnings if this was even close to developing, due to its proximity to land I would think that they would error on the side of caution. Therefore, I don't see us getting "Chris" from this system.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks for the reply dwg71. Looks ominous outside here though.

[Frank2]

The outflow seems to be increasing over the west-central Gulf, but, the "center" of the disturbance is still over the south Texas coastal area, and, per the TWO, appears to still be moving northward (not NE), so, any development would be unlikely (again, per the TWO), unless it moved over water.

Frank

[dixiebreeze]

Here you go, from TWO:

" HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE OVER THE GULF...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM. "

[Hohwxny]

Here you go, from TWO:

" HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE OVER THE GULF...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM. "

Since when does "emerge" mean "expand"?

[Brandon007]

are there any model plots on this system?

[Trugunzn]

[dixiebreeze]

Here you go, from TWO:

" HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE OVER THE GULF...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM. "

Since when does "emerge" mean "expand"?

System is expanding -- low might "emerge." Very simple.