98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stormcenter]

The bulk of the convection seems to be headed right for Louisiana . I don't see much movement towards Texas with this thing, more of NNE movement. Looks like a VERY wet day is in store for us if this convection holds together. Wouuldn't be surprised to see a depression spin up in all that mess, it's happened before.

Correct this disturbance "looks" like it has a NNE movement to it now.

[Yankeegirl]

Look at all this rain on its way in, I am leaving for work now!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999

[Hohwxny]

title fix needed: its 98 not 96

Try reading back through the thread and you will see why its 96L

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Big blob of convection, that's all I see. If this had an LLC I would have made this a tropical storm already.

[PTrackerLA]

Yes, I watched the rain train just to the northwest of me all day yesterday. Today will be a different story. Can't wait to see what the models do with the new area they are now interested in. Looks like they may already be hinting at a NNE movement.

Same thing happened here yesterday, never even had enough to wet the ground. Seems like the rain fizzles once it makes it onshore here, I wonder if this will continue today because the storms south of here have already weakened.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Big blob of convection, that's all I see. If this had an LLC I would have made this a tropical storm already.

The funny thing is some TS don't have this much convection associated with them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[RattleMan]

title fix needed: its 98 not 96

Try reading back through the thread and you will see why its 96L

Yes, but now it's back to 98L on NRL.

[Yankeegirl]

I just noticed that too... I just woke up, I tohught I was still slepin...

[Steve]

>>Correct this disturbance "looks" like it has a NNE movement to it now.

That flow of the cloudtops anyway is pretty standard on the wet side of a west gulf system (be it into SE TX or SW/SC/SE LA). The 00z and 06z models all took whatever surface energy there was into the western Rio Grande Valley, so at least as of 1 am and 7pm last night, the models were either splitting off a piece of energy or refocusing it over time to the west. And to be fair, there's a pretty strong E-W flow across the gulf with that surface high.

Steve

[HurricaneHunter914]

The one thing that is going to help this become a TC is if it continues moving NNE and away from land.

[Frank2]

Nothing much left but a swath of coastal showers and thunderstorms:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Stormavoider]

Do we have a center forming about 150 mi south of the central Louisiana coast????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[drezee]

Do we have a center forming about 150 mi south of the central Louisiana coast????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Nope, don't see it...IR4 isn't good for daytime...vis is better

[Stormcenter]

Is there a very slight twist forming "maybe" offshore below the Texas border.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[JonathanBelles]

2 storms? one in the extreme west GOM and the one stormavoider speaks of?

[Steve]

I don't see one. But you'd probably do better looking at the visible than the IR Channel 2 this time of day to see if there is anything spinning down there.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Nothing much left but a swath of coastal showers and thunderstorms:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Those are some serious "showers".

[PTrackerLA]

The LLC SW of Brownsville looks very weak. I don't see why a new one couldn't form up underneath the deep convection offshore but the models aren't showing it. Guess this is just a heavy rain maker after all.

[drezee]

ABNT20 KNHC 251507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT
45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THE
SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES
EMERGE OVER THE GULF...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

[T-man]

The swath hath swallowed half of the GOM. Raining here in Lafitte now.