Wave in Central Caribbean

Extremeweatherguy · #101 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:20 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250857
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE
LOW REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMS...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
MINIMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

The latest discussion seems like it is giving the wave more of a chance.

#102 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:58 am

Still a naked swirl this morning, still moving 15kt. Per 8am TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 26N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A EQUALLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

Still watching buoy 41041 to see if there is a wind surge behind this wave. Wish we had a buoy up near 18-20N and 45W! GFS is saying we'll have 4-meter waves and 27kt winds on Friday. Somehow I doubt that...
graphical GFS and NAM for BVI

ThunderMate · #103 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:25 am

How are you all saying this thing will end up in the gulf and hit texas when it is still 800 miles east of the islands??

ThunderMate · #104 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:32 am

Is it me or does the low seem to be moving wnw on floater 2?? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

MortisFL · #105 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:11 am

Canadian still the only model making it somewhat of a cyclone down the road. Models are in pretty good agreement that this wave will affect the islands, PR, then skim or just miss Hispanola...for now.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #106 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:12 am

11:30am TWO

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

#107 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:16 am

it does appear unlikely this wave will do much as it moves westward with the trades - the African dust is the reason why we didn't see it develop.

HurricaneHunter914 · #108 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:18 am

IMO this wave has a little more of a better chance of development since this one is over water while 98L or 96L is over land and will stay over land.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #109 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:18 am

gatorcane wrote:it does appear unlikely this wave will do much as it moves westward with the trades - the African dust is the reason why we didn't see it develop.

Meanwhile, the low refuses to die...

MortisFL · #110 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:22 am

It needs some moisture.

#111 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:29 am

It will stay the way it for now till it get over the 60. Then that is were it will develop. I would say 200 hundered miles east of the Islands.

Looking at the WV loop you can see that it is bigger than yesterday and is holding the cloudes better. Not saying they will not be blown away but it is trying to stay together. There was one last year that did the same thing.But it finely made it to a hurricane.

Hohwxny · #112 Postby **Hohwxny** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:39 am

MortisFL wrote:It needs some moisture.

Really! Who would have thought! :wink:

ThunderMate · #113 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:58 am

Any new info on the low out there?

#114 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:18 pm

It is moving WNW at 15MPH and still has its clouds to the north and east of the center. You just have to wait till it get over close to the Islands so it can get the moisture it needs. It has none to work with right now cause it is VERY DRY OUT there. It looks better than I thought it would with all that dry air. The top are being blown off again :wink:

#115 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:30 pm

MortisFL wrote:It needs some moisture.

That is an understatement... but, it appears as though that the wave remains in tact and low level circulation is still present along the axis. IMO give it a day or two and this thing is going to be looking totally different. This might end up being one of those situations where a well defined wave moves near the cape verde islands and instead of blowing up with convection, becoming organized and moves north in to the open waters of the atlantic... instead it stays a well defined wave with a low level circulation and moves right to the east of the Islands where it becomes more of a threat than it was as a cape verde system.

This is only speculation and not a forecast.

z-bail · #116 Postby **z-bail** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:48 pm

Well, I'm a surfer and love to track all of these myself but I sure don't see anything that looks very tropical to my untrained eye. You guys definately must know what to look for. I'd love for someone to post a map and circle this tropical wave so I can see what it is you are looking at! Keep up the expert work!

ThunderMate · #117 Postby **ThunderMate** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:53 pm

Well, i can see the wave is trying to get a little bit of thunderstorm activity going but i have seem to lost site of where the actual low is on floater 2... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html ....

#118 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:53 pm

The UKMET is now a little different also...
It is taking what appears to be the northern extent of the wave and moves it just south of the Greater Antilles and then into the GOM with some low level vorticity. Before this UKMET did not show vorticity with this wave in the Caribbean.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Still not much coming from NOGAPS...

x-y-no · #119 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:08 pm

z-bail wrote:Well, I'm a surfer and love to track all of these myself but I sure don't see anything that looks very tropical to my untrained eye. You guys definately must know what to look for. I'd love for someone to post a map and circle this tropical wave so I can see what it is you are looking at! Keep up the expert work!

Here ya go:

#120 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:25 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 26N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.
THIS WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST. IT REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W
AND 51W. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

205

Wave in Central Caribbean

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