Wave in Central Caribbean

#81 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:14 pm

18Z GFS continues to show this area move to the north of the Islands and then out into the atlantic. Although a there is a little more vorticity with this run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

General Movement like this...

#82 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:15 pm

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PRONOUNCED INVERTED V PATTERN
IS ALONG 45W S OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS
ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THIS WAVE AND LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-24N
BETWEEN 42W-51W. THIS CENTRAL ATLC WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS UNDER A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING IT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

8 PM Discussion.

ThunderMate · #83 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:17 pm

Well, its looking like it is trying to fire a little convection around to its south a bit.

#84 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PRONOUNCED INVERTED V PATTERN
IS ALONG 45W S OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS
ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THIS WAVE AND LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-24N
BETWEEN 42W-51W. THIS CENTRAL ATLC WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS UNDER A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING IT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

8 PM Discussion.

#85 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:25 pm

Why those eyebrows?

#86 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:26 pm

BRINGING IT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI.

vacanechaser · #87 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:34 pm

no problem.. i just looked and it is not on there anymore.. thanx for that... you can use it if you like.... i really dont mind.. i was just messing around... thanx again

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Resaerch Team

HUC · #88 Postby **HUC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:38 pm

What means "tropical atlantic waters tuesday night"???? 13°N and 45°O are not in the tropical atlantic????Perhaps it's to say that the waters the wave will encount tuesday are hotest that at the present time???A lot of questions about this 8pm discussion :eek:

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:21 pm

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

From the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

Extremeweatherguy · #90 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:34 pm

JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

ROCK · #91 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

notice that map EWG....bad setup for Texas and NGOM if that stays the same through the season.....Looks almost 1940ish set-up. :eek:

But your in FL no worries..... :lol:

#92 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:40 pm

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

notice that map EWG....bad setup for Texas and NGOM if that stays the same through the season.....Looks almost 1940ish set-up. But your in FL no worries.....

Don't say 1940s, that was a horrible era for Florida.... :eek:

Extremeweatherguy · #93 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:43 pm

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

notice that map EWG....bad setup for Texas and NGOM if that stays the same through the season.....Looks almost 1940ish set-up. But your in FL no worries.....

yes, I am Florida now, but I am going to be coming back to Houston on Aug. 1st (just when this thing may be entering the Gulf). I do agree with the bad setup though. This could potentially be a long season for TX with many storm threats. For now though, I will sit back and enjoy the nice FL breeze and evening storms and worry about this wave when it is time...4-8 days from now.

Extremeweatherguy · #94 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

notice that map EWG....bad setup for Texas and NGOM if that stays the same through the season.....Looks almost 1940ish set-up. But your in FL no worries.....

Don't say 1940s, that was a horrible era for Florida....

I think the 1940's were horrible for everyone! Then again...so were the last 5 years.

ROCK · #95 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

notice that map EWG....bad setup for Texas and NGOM if that stays the same through the season.....Looks almost 1940ish set-up. But your in FL no worries.....

Don't say 1940s, that was a horrible era for Florida....

True....sorry didnt mean to leave you guys out....

#96 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:46 pm

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB thinks this wave may be something to watch by the time it nears the NW Caribbean and Gulf a week from now. Here is the latest 72 hr. surface forecast from the NWS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like this will now take a more southern route and not be a SE or Mid Atlantic problem.^^

notice that map EWG....bad setup for Texas and NGOM if that stays the same through the season.....Looks almost 1940ish set-up. But your in FL no worries.....

Don't say 1940s, that was a horrible era for Florida....

True....sorry didnt mean to leave you guys out....

no problem, it was a bad era for many 8-)

Opal storm · #97 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:36 pm

Wait a second,this thing is east of the Lesser Antilles and you guys are already calling for a Florida or Texas landfall? I'm going to laugh if this thing goes poof before even reaching the Carib. :lol:

No offense,but I just think for right now we need to wait and watch it as it tracks westward and see what happens with it.This thing has a LONG way before even becoming a threat to the SE U.S,that is IF it even makes it that far.

#98 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:40 pm

I'm going say this is going to be something that has to be watched for all in the Caribbean for the next few days. IMO if the wave moves away from all the dust/dry air it's gonna have a chance. It's moving into an area of wamer SST'S and GFS is hinting that it will be moving with an area of low windshear.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

24 Hour windshear.

24 hour surface forecast - Wave is under low windshear
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

48 Hour Windshear

48 Hour surfcae forecastWave Approaching almost at the Islands - Low windshear
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

72 Hour Windshear

72 Hour surface forecast - Wave in the Eastern Caribbean under low windshear.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

That's about as far as I'll go with windshear forecast and GFS.

#99 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:43 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I'm going say this is going to be something that has to be watched for all in the Caribbean for the next few days. IMO if the wave moves away from all the dust/dry air it's gonna have a chance. It's moving into an area of wamer SST'S and GFS is hinting that it will be moving with an area of low windshear.

If not this wave there is one forecasted by the GFS to roll off Africa in a few days...it's all beginning to happen...

#100 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:47 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:I'm going say this is going to be something that has to be watched for all in the Caribbean for the next few days. IMO if the wave moves away from all the dust/dry air it's gonna have a chance. It's moving into an area of wamer SST'S and GFS is hinting that it will be moving with an area of low windshear.

If not this wave there is one forecasted by the GFS to roll off Africa in a few days...it's all beginning to happen...

I edited my post above.. check it out. :uarrow:

Wave in Central Caribbean

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