98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[ROCK]

Havent been able to chime in from work but I am home now.

Couple of things I noticed today from the vis loop earlier. Most of you guys saw what I saw. LLC was spit out and moved ashore in MEX around lunch time. Another one looks to be drawn into the convection off-shore. Saw some buoys earlier today with gusts up to 45 knots...and sustained 30knts...interesting.

I agree with tonight being the time to watch closely to see if Chris gets his act together. Its going to be close IMO.....

[george_r_1961]

Havent been able to chime in from work but I am home now.

Couple of things I noticed today from the vis loop earlier. Most of you guys saw what I saw. LLC was spit out and moved ashore in MEX around lunch time. Another one looks to be drawn into the convection off-shore. Saw some buoys earlier today with gusts up to 45 knots...and sustained 30knts...interesting.

I agree with tonight being the time to watch closely to see if Chris gets his act together. Its going to be close IMO.....

Its not Chris yet...not even a TD.

[Stormavoider]

The wind has come around to out of the east here. I'm not real sure what to make of it. But, it's a change.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[Thunder44]

You can all see the circulation WindRunner was talking about here too:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes

[wxman57]

I Just got off the phone with one of our offshore platforms 98 miles south of Cameron, LA they are getting 50 - 55 mph winds right now. This is definitely getting intersting to say the least.

Very interesting, indeed...

By chance, do you know what winds sustained would warrent an evacuation of the platform?

The offshore rigs can't evacuate in a situation like this, and they're generally not too concerned about TS-force winds as far as evacuations go. The helicopters cannot fly in the squalls that are already there. Doesn't really matter if this system develops an LLC or not, it WILL produce wind gusts to 50-60 kts offshore in squalls over the next 24-48 hours. Outside of the squalls, there isn't much of a pressure gradient out there, only 15-20 kt winds or so.

And as of late this afternoon, whatever MLC there was does appear to be inland. Could not find any evidence of any LLC on surface obs or high-res visible images before I left the office. That's not to say that a weak LLC might not form offshore along the lower Texas coast tomorrow then move quickly inland.

Question is - what will the NHC do with this? Remember Grace in 2003? Offshore platforms were reporting 35-45 kt winds in squalls and the NHC called it TS Grace. Recon investigated and could find no evidence of an LLC. It was just a tropical wave. So you never know what the NHC will call a TS (or TD).

I think it won't develop any LLC before the whole mess moves inland into Texas over the next 24 hours or so. But it DOES mean very heavy rain for the Texas coastal counties over the next few days. 5-10 inches may not be that uncommon. Looks like the focus will be southwest of Houston, from just east of Matagorda Bay south to Corpus Christi, maybe a tad farther south. Also, could be some heavy rain inland NW of Corpus Christi and west of Victoria.

Personally, I hope this system isn't named "Chris". It's about time for Chris to be a real hurricane, not a sheared, weak TS!

[DrStorm]

You can all see the circulation WindRunner was talking about here too:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes

Nice shot of that spin!

[senorpepr]

Personally, I hope this system isn't named "Chris". It's about time for Chris to be a real hurricane, not a sheared, weak TS!

Does Hurricane Chris (1994) not count?

[wxman57]

Personally, I hope this system isn't named "Chris". It's about time for Chris to be a real hurricane, not a sheared, weak TS!

Does Hurricane Chris (1994) not count?

No, too wussy. Chris should be a powerful Cat 3-5 hurricane this time, hang around off the east coast a bit to show off, then head safely out to sea.

[gatorcane]

Personally, I hope this system isn't named "Chris". It's about time for Chris to be a real hurricane, not a sheared, weak TS!

Does Hurricane Chris (1994) not count?

No, too wussy. Chris should be a powerful Cat 3-5 hurricane this time, hang around off the east coast a bit to show off, then head safely out to sea.

well Chris has the disadvantage of being very early on in the alphabet - my name is Chris so I want it to pack a punch just like you say here

[tailgater]

You can all see the circulation WindRunner was talking about here too:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes

Nice shot of that spin!

Which spin the MLC south of Brownsville or the spin NE of BRO.

[P.K.]

Personally, I hope this system isn't named "Chris". It's about time for Chris to be a real hurricane, not a sheared, weak TS!

Does Hurricane Chris (1994) not count?

No, too wussy. Chris should be a powerful Cat 3-5 hurricane this time, hang around off the east coast a bit to show off, then head safely out to sea.

To be fair Severe Tropical Cyclone Chris from 2002 would fit that category. 915hPa, with ten minute winds between 50-59m/s at its peak. Looks like the max winds were 57.3m/s to me from the best track.

[wxman57]

You can all see the circulation WindRunner was talking about here too:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... O&loop=yes

Nice shot of that spin!

Which spin the MLC south of Brownsville or the spin NE of BRO.

I noticed both of those "apparent" spins. It's hard to really tell if you're seeing a rotation or an appearance of rotation due to the changing echo pattern. In any case, both features are located quite far above the surface.

[rockyman]

FYI: Here's a detailed map of the Mexican Gulf Coast...to see the locations of coastal towns:
http://renderv315.bay.prod.mappoint.net ... 1FBDB244E9

Here's a list of Mexico weather stations:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/MX.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Personally, I hope this system isn't named "Chris". It's about time for Chris to be a real hurricane, not a sheared, weak TS!

Does Hurricane Chris (1994) not count?

No, too wussy. Chris should be a powerful Cat 3-5 hurricane this time, hang around off the east coast a bit to show off, then head safely out to sea.

well Chris has the disadvantage of being very early on in the alphabet - my name is Chris so I want it to pack a punch just like you say here

My name is Daniel, and I am already pleased with what I have done in the Pacific. May be Chris will get his day soon.. lol.

[HURAKAN]

I'm so far down the list (Sandy), that if we get there, no matter the system, I'm pleased!!!

[Steve]

It's rained like 5 or 6 times today. In that wave of rain that moved through Metairie around 5:15ish, my buddy's driveway got fried with a lightning bolt which surged through his house and destroyed almost all of his electrical equipment.

Should be an interesting few days with lots of weather for coastal residents.

Steve

[kjun]

Blow-up of convection east of Tampico in SW GOM. Thunderstorms seem to be concentrating around that area. We may have a TD by noon Tuesday.

[Rainband]

I know you know that....but sometimes I wonder if any weather-related headlines/scrolls/etc. on TV ever gets read/proofread by someone who actually knows the weather.

No kidding. And the Time Picayune web site has a link saying "Gulf system could become third major storm of 2006." The link goes straight to the 5:30 TWO, which, of course, says nothing of the sort.

We haven't even had one major yet??

[cycloneye]

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE PRESENTLY FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 91W-98W.

I didn't see this 8 PM discussion about 98L posted so here it is now.

[Jim Cantore]

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MOVING
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE PRESENTLY FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 91W-98W.

I didn't see this 8 PM discussion about 98L posted so here it is now.

Looks like we might be heating up