98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#41 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:25 pm

Just looked at the IR and WV loops and heres what I think im seeing. LLC trying to form just offshore...at the same time this system has become more elongated the past few hours and convection has decreased. If shear lessens tonite and the llc stays over water then we may see tropical development when the nocturnal convective burst occurs. We will need to watch this area closely tonite.

southerngale · #42 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:28 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Kelly, there has never been a low firmly established. Hints at one, which they felt had gone ashore or close to it.....

Nothing new with such a disorganized system..

Well, that's what I thought just by looking at it, but then I read the surface low is over water, then it's over land, then it's over water, then it's over land... :double:

In any case, some areas that don't need rain are likely gonna get it anyway!

#43 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:36 pm

Thunder44 wrote:You see in the last 2 or 3 frames on visible loop here, you see that the low clouds on the NE Mexico suddenly go in towards the thunderstorm cluster blowing up offshore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Noticed that too. It almost looks like the old LLC (if you could call it that...) that was roughly on the shoreline just completely collapsed and then got sucked-in to the convection offshore. Interesting to say the least.....

Thunder44 · #44 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:37 pm

Tampico's winds have turned ENE and increased to 12mph at this hour. Also a pressure now 1009mb.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

teal61 · #45 Postby **teal61** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:45 pm

That burst of thunderstorms just offshore of the Mexican coast may prove to be very important in the possible future development of this system. If there is indeed a llc it may be pulled further offshore under this new convection. What happens overnight when the thunderstorms should really blow up will probably tell the tale. How manys times in the past have we seen this happen with weak systems in their formative stage, with llc's reforming or being pulled under the thunderstorms. IMO its got about 24 to 36 hours to do it's thing, but I'm looking for nothing more than a TD or weak TS.

#46 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:48 pm

This may get interesting after all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

#47 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:49 pm

teal I think you're right. Tonight will be critical as to what happens. One thing to note is that the system does have a lot more convection & lower pressures today vs. yesterday to work with, and look at what we woke-up to. Could be interesting by the morning.

#48 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:50 pm

So far with developing systems mornings have been very interesting, from Alberto to Possible Chris (not Christ!!!). Like I always say, lets wait for the next diurnal maximum.

#49 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:50 pm

Crud!

I take a break and some homebrew might be trying to spin up in the BOC? Sheesh....

#50 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:51 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Crud!

I take a break and some homebrew might be trying to spin up in the BOC? Sheesh....

I love that Avatar... by far the best i've seen.

PTrackerLA · #51 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:54 pm

If that new burst of convection can persist offshore tonight we may very well see a TD tomorrow. This seems like the type of system that can spin up really quick. Remember how quickly Allison formed in 2001?

Stratosphere747 · #52 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 4:54 pm

From what the pros have said, using the floater or some of the other sources gives you the distortion of seeing a llc.

Could be me, but that distortion is what I'm seeing. Otherwise it is not any more organized.

Does seem the shear may be lessening though.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #53 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:00 pm

Hopefully Chris forms. But the chances are not very high...We will see.

HurricaneHunter914 · #54 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:01 pm

Looks like we might see TD #3 later tonight or tomorrow IMO.

Thunder44 · #55 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:01 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:From what the pros have said, using the floater or some of the other sources gives you the distortion of seeing a llc.

Could be me, but that distortion is what I'm seeing. Otherwise it is not any more organized.

Does seem the shear may be lessening though.

They like to use surface obs to confirm there is a LLC. But the obs along the Mexico coast are sparse and sometimes unreliable. I've noticed many of them don't report during the late-night hours.

wxman22 · #56 Postby **wxman22** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:02 pm

Yep if a closed Low forms overnight we may have a Tropical Depresion as early as mid morning.... Bottom line if it developes or not people in Southest Texas & the middle Texas coast could seen a major flash flood event : Part of the Houston NWS discussion AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...3
TO 5 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS
AROUND WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS END UP SETTING UP (LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS AND TRAINING CELLS)...HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

Yankeegirl · #57 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:03 pm

Fox is scrolling at the bottom of the screen about the possible development of a tropical disturbance trying to form in the gulf.... Says it will be needed to watch very closely.

DrStorm · #58 Postby **DrStorm** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:04 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like we might see TD #3 later tonight or tomorrow IMO.

Agreed. I'll go on record with you too. This will form!

(of course I have just issued the death sentence for this disturbance by going on record.)

#59 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:07 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Fox is scrolling at the bottom of the screen about the possible development of a tropical disturbance trying to form in the gulf.... Says it will be needed to watch very closely.

Wonder what the text says verbatim.....b/c a Tropical Disturbance formed a long time ago. Now we're watching to see if the already-formed disturbance forms into a TC.

I know you know that....but sometimes I wonder if any weather-related headlines/scrolls/etc. on TV ever gets read/proofread by someone who actually knows the weather.

Thunder44 · #60 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:08 pm

DrStorm wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like we might see TD #3 later tonight or tomorrow IMO.

Agreed. I'll go on record with you too. This will form!

(of course I have just issued the death sentence for this disturbance by going on record.)

Might even go straight to TS status with the first advisory, if there is one. Sustained TS force winds have already been reported over at the bouy SE of Texas. This system just needs a closed surface circulation to be classified as a TC.

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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