98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stormcenter]

Still, this isn't even a TC yet and you are calling it a Waste of Time? For all we no this will stall over the central GOM and become a Cat-5. (What I just posted about this being a Cat-5 is not to be taken seriously).

Let's be realistic here. It won't do anything like that.

It shouldn't.

[Thunder44]

At 18z They have the "center" position at 21.8N 97.9W which is just inland near Tampico, Mx, moving north at 5kts.

291
WHXX01 KWBC 241826
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060724 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 1800 060725 0600 060725 1800 060726 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 97.9W 23.3N 98.1W 24.8N 98.0W 26.0N 98.0W
BAMM 21.8N 97.9W 23.6N 98.7W 25.2N 99.0W 26.4N 99.2W
A98E 21.8N 97.9W 22.8N 97.6W 23.9N 97.3W 25.2N 97.5W
LBAR 21.8N 97.9W 23.2N 98.3W 24.8N 98.9W 26.2N 99.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 1800 060727 1800 060728 1800 060729 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 98.4W 29.5N 100.2W 30.7N 101.4W 31.3N 102.0W
BAMM 27.5N 99.5W 29.6N 101.1W 31.3N 102.6W 32.8N 103.2W
A98E 26.7N 98.0W 29.0N 99.5W 30.3N 100.3W 32.0N 98.4W
LBAR 27.4N 99.5W 29.4N 99.9W 31.9N 100.2W 35.6N 98.3W
SHIP 42KTS 50KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 97.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 96.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Cyclenall]

Dude...do you know much those very religious people in the country/ world would be offended by naming a hurricane Christ? Some people would say that theyre anti's of each other

I read in a topic on Storm2K a while ago that in the late 1980s in the Indian ocean there was a storm called "Tropical Storm Christ" or something like that. Just search for the topic "Weird storm names" for more information.

[curtadams]

I think what Derek is sayingis that Hurricane Daniel poses a more serious threat to Hawaii than 98L does to Texas, and, therefore, spending more time on 98L than on Hurricane Daniel is a waste of time.

Given that TX and LA have about 25 times the population of HI and have had 2 total monster hurricanes and one major tropical flood event in the past year alone (as opposed to HI's 15 years since a serious strike), I think it's basically inevitable that anything in the GOM is going to get more interest that just about anything in HI.

[HouTXmetro]

As we know, LLC's can relocate in weak systems under the heaviest convection.

[gatorcane]

I think what Derek is sayingis that Hurricane Daniel poses a more serious threat to Hawaii than 98L does to Texas, and, therefore, spending more time on 98L than on Hurricane Daniel is a waste of time.

Given that TX and LA have about 25 times the population of HI and have had 2 total monster hurricanes and one major tropical flood event in the past year alone (as opposed to HI's 15 years since a serious strike), I think it's basically inevitable that anything in the GOM is going to get more interest that just about anything in HI.

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA was on the more intense side of that hurricane.

[curtadams]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

[jasons2k]

I think what Derek is sayingis that Hurricane Daniel poses a more serious threat to Hawaii than 98L does to Texas, and, therefore, spending more time on 98L than on Hurricane Daniel is a waste of time.

Given that TX and LA have about 25 times the population of HI and have had 2 total monster hurricanes and one major tropical flood event in the past year alone (as opposed to HI's 15 years since a serious strike), I think it's basically inevitable that anything in the GOM is going to get more interest that just about anything in HI.

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA was on the more intense side of that hurricane.

Don't base climatology on a few seasons. Don't have time to go and check but I think TX has had far more storms than LA.

[george_r_1961]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

Do what???? Rita messed up SE texas pretty bad.

[curtadams]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

Do what???? Rita messed up SE texas pretty bad.

Sorry, I know Rita did a lot of harm to SE Texas. I was trying to be dry and it came out wrong.

[Steve]

>>Don't base climatology on a few seasons. Don't have time to go and check but I think TX has had far more storms than LA.

They have and should have based on the size of their coastline. But recent activity has been somewhat underwhelming with the big storms and overwhelming with the "lesser" ones.

Steve

[gatorcane]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

Do what???? Rita messed up SE texas pretty bad.

Sorry, I know Rita did a lot of harm to SE Texas. I was trying to be dry and it came out wrong.

Anyway back to the topic right?

[southerngale]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

You really shouldn't post about what you clearly have no clue about. I live where you're saying Rita "didn't do a whole lot to Texas" and I beg to differ with gatorcane's "Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time" - we've ONLY seen the worst disaster this area has ever seen in everyone who lives here's lifetimes!

Sorry, but comments like this show how severely uninformed are you, therefore you shouldn't post them. We are still recovering in this area, many people still in FEMA trailers, living with relatives, businesses and homes destroyed, gutted out, etc.

Don't tell me Rita didn't do a whole lot here. I live here...I know.

[stormtruth]

please reread my entire post

I said Allison 1989

I was talking about Allison 2001. I was trying to say that following a weak tropical storm is not a "waste of time" as you suggested.

[Seele]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

You really shouldn't post about what you clearly have no clue about. I live where you're saying Rita "didn't do a whole lot to Texas" and I beg to differ with gatorcane's "Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time" - we've ONLY seen the worst disaster this area has ever seen in everyone who lives here's lifetimes!

Sorry, but comments like this show how severely uninformed are you, therefore you shouldn't post them. We are still recovering in this area, many people still in FEMA trailers, living with relatives, businesses and homes destroyed, gutted out, etc.

Don't tell me Rita didn't do a whole lot here. I live here...I know.

They are only reflecting what the media unfortunantly portrayed.

[HURAKAN]

Can we get back to the topic, 98L in the WGOM.

[Steve]

gale,

Compared to what it could have done, it really was a minor-league event except for some of the very eastern counties. Think about it. Because one day, you guys are going to get the doomsday storm that's gonna mess you up good. So will we in Louisiana. People talk about how brutal Katrina was and in reality, she was probably about 55-60% of the damaging storm she could have been were she truly a Cat 5. Rita was a mess, but it was ultimately chump change in Texas compared to what it could have been and what someday will be.

Steve

[bbadon]

Can we please return to the topic. Thanks

[gatorcane]

That is a statement for LA which gets hit far more by monster hurricanes than Texas does - Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time - it saw some effects from Rita but still LA saw alot from that also.

Well, technically Rita didn't do a whole lot to Texas (although Port Arthur folks weren't exactly happy) but it was certainly memorable, and it was close. Just the evac of Houston was a small-scale disaster, with that bus fire.

You really shouldn't post about what you clearly have no clue about. I live where you're saying Rita "didn't do a whole lot to Texas" and I beg to differ with gatorcane's "Texas hasn't seen much in a *long* time" - we've ONLY seen the worst disaster this area has ever seen in everyone who lives here's lifetimes!

Sorry, but comments like this show how severely uninformed are you, therefore you shouldn't post them. We are still recovering in this area, many people still in FEMA trailers, living with relatives, businesses and homes destroyed, gutted out, etc.

Don't tell me Rita didn't do a whole lot here. I live here...I know.

I knew SE Texas was impacted from Rita but I thought LA was on the worst side and saw more - maybe it was how the media showed it but that is a whole other topic

[Steve]

>>Can we please return to the topic. Thanks

What? Are you a teacher or something?



Steve