98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HouTXmetro]

compared to the threat Daniel ACTUALLY poses to the USA, this is but a waste of time. A sheared TD or a weak TS is going to be given a whole 5 minutes by me, much like Grace/Jimena in 2003

Allison was a big waste of time too

I was about to say the same thing.

[cheezyWXguy]

compared to the threat Daniel ACTUALLY poses to the USA, this is but a waste of time. A sheared TD or a weak TS is going to be given a whole 5 minutes by me, much like Grace/Jimena in 2003

Allison was a big waste of time too

allison? as in the costliest TS in U.S. History?
Ya, 5 Billion dollar TS's are a waste

[Swimdude]

I think we're all spoiled after the train of cat 5's last year.

[Derek Ortt]

please reread my entire post

I said Allison 1989

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What I'm saying is that I think a LLC(Under the ULL)right on the coastline...Which the nhc is talking about. But there may be one around 24/97 to under the MLC and the deepest convection area....In which if a cyclone where to develop would try to fire there.

[Stormcenter]

I think we're all spoiled after the train of cat 5's last year.

Correct.

No tropical system is a "waste" time of if it has the potential to cause death and destruction.

[cheezyWXguy]

please reread my entire post

I said Allison 1989

I was actually referring to Stormtruth but as long as yall are both talking about allison '89 then I feel kinda stupid right now...lol

[HurricaneHunter914]

Still, this isn't even a TC yet and you are calling it a Waste of Time? For all we no this will stall over the central GOM and become a Cat-5. (What I just posted about this being a Cat-5 is not to be taken seriously).

[HURAKAN]

1989:


2001:


Similar tracks, same name!!!

[Starburst]

compared to the threat Daniel ACTUALLY poses to the USA, this is but a waste of time. A sheared TD or a weak TS is going to be given a whole 5 minutes by me, much like Grace/Jimena in 2003

Well to those of us that are facing potential flooding from this system it is not a waste of time. Derek I have always respected your opinion, your discussions, etc. but let me tell you something when you make a statement like that you loose alot in my book. Not only is it rude it is unprofessional and I for one will not give you or your discussions even 5 minutes of my time.

[curtadams]

compared to the threat Daniel ACTUALLY poses to the USA, this is but a waste of time. A sheared TD or a weak TS is going to be given a whole 5 minutes by me, much like Grace/Jimena in 2003

I don't see that. IMO the tropicalish low in SE Texas last month did as much harm as a 50 kt TS Daniel on the Highway to Hana would. And it's not like we can't pay attention to both.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Invest 98L has alot more time over water than Allison of 2001 had.

[Thunder44]

Still, this isn't even a TC yet and you are calling it a Waste of Time? For all we no this will stall over the central GOM and become a Cat-5. (What I just posted about this being a Cat-5 is not to be taken seriously).

Let's be realistic here. It won't do anything like that.

[Hohwxny]

compared to the threat Daniel ACTUALLY poses to the USA, this is but a waste of time. A sheared TD or a weak TS is going to be given a whole 5 minutes by me, much like Grace/Jimena in 2003

Not to be mean but I am getting annoyed by these "This storm is just a waste of time" comments. So far we have seen two of them and IMO those comments are a waste of time. Because to some people these week TDs are NOT a waste of time.

I think what Derek is sayingis that Hurricane Daniel poses a more serious threat to Hawaii than 98L does to Texas, and, therefore, spending more time on 98L than on Hurricane Daniel is a waste of time.

[GalvestonDuck]

compared to the threat Daniel ACTUALLY poses to the USA, this is but a waste of time. A sheared TD or a weak TS is going to be given a whole 5 minutes by me, much like Grace/Jimena in 2003

Allison was a big waste of time too

allison? as in the costliest TS in U.S. History?
Ya, 5 Billion dollar TS's are a waste

I'm fairly certain Stormtruth was being sarcastic.

[HURAKAN]

Furthermore, Daniel may pose a greater threat, windwise, but since Daniel is a small cyclones moving faster than our large disturbance I think the greatest menace here is our disturbance. As we all know, rain causes more damage and deaths than wind, especially if those winds come from a tropical storm.

[vbhoutex]

After a quick look at SAT loops, both infrared and visible, I tend to think that a LLCC could be attempting to form just about where Matt is talking about or somewhere close to that vicinity. It is way too close to the coast to develop quickly, if indeed anything is even happening, so I wouldn't worry about any rapid intensification into anything of major sinificance, except a major rainmaker for the TX and possibly Mexican coasts. I have nothing else to base this on except for this quick look at the sat loops. JMHO.

[Derek Ortt]

The GOM is a heavy rain threat, which is handled by locla NWS offices.

I am concerned about mudslides in Hawaii due to the very mountainous terrain on the big island (Jimena missed in 2003 and still brough 10 inches of rain with the upslope flow, Daniel may bring more, which is why 90% of my focus on on Daniel)

Of course, if a LLC does form, you can bet I will still write forecasts and then highlight the flooding threat

[dixiebreeze]

There might not be a S2K at all if any tropical activity was a waste of time. That's sort of why we're all here, enjoying the companionship of tropical weather watchers.

[Derek Ortt]

I think what Derek is sayingis that Hurricane Daniel poses a more serious threat to Hawaii than 98L does to Texas, and, therefore, spending more time on 98L than on Hurricane Daniel is a waste of time.

That is precisely what I am saying, and possibly a greater rainfall and flooding threat as well due to the mountains. The Big Island has a 13,000 foot mountain