98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Extremeweatherguy
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#401 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:35 pm

anyone have model plots to post?
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Steve
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#402 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:38 pm

>>WOW! I will look at some data in maybe a update in a little while.

I'm on the edge of my seat. ;)

But good call Matt.

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#403 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:39 pm

I think the month of August is coming!!!
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#404 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:41 pm

SO is ther going to be any recon flying down there to see whats going on? Or are they going to base it uopn observations?
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#405 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:42 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:SO is ther going to be any recon flying down there to see whats going on? Or are they going to base it uopn observations?


Lisa if correct recon was cancelled at 8am EDT..but I got a feeling they will re think that decision.
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#406 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:anyone have model plots to post?


000
WHXX01 KWBC 241301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060724 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 1200 060725 0000 060725 1200 060726 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 97.2W 25.3N 97.4W 26.6N 97.7W 27.7N 97.7W
BAMM 24.0N 97.2W 25.2N 97.9W 26.4N 98.5W 27.5N 98.7W
A98E 24.0N 97.2W 25.4N 97.3W 27.2N 97.1W 28.8N 96.6W
LBAR 24.0N 97.2W 25.4N 97.6W 27.1N 97.9W 28.8N 97.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 1200 060727 1200 060728 1200 060729 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 97.9W 29.9N 99.0W 31.0N 100.0W 31.8N 100.7W
BAMM 28.4N 98.9W 30.1N 99.7W 31.6N 100.8W 33.2N 101.4W
A98E 30.1N 96.3W 31.6N 94.3W 33.6N 90.7W 37.1N 88.3W
LBAR 30.3N 97.0W 32.8N 94.9W 36.5N 91.0W 40.4N 84.4W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 53KTS 51KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 97.0W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 96.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#407 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:46 pm

My local met is saying this area will be developing in the next 36 hours. In fact in his graphic it showed "Storm 3 to be"
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#408 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:47 pm

I just saw the met from NBCWeatherPlus on MSNBC hyping this storm become TD or TS Chris really soon.
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#409 Postby T-man » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:48 pm

Image

Looks real good this afternoon, dontcha think? :cheesy:
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#410 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:48 pm

Not to mean lady, moan or complain, but I really hate the new format of storm 2 k where you have to wade through 20 pages in a thread to find something useful. I realize that topics were getting out of hand and moving too fast. And I also realize that numerous whiners complained about the 10 page rule, but this is just ridiculous.

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#411 Postby T-man » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:52 pm

No mean ladies over here. :cheesy:
Image
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#412 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:54 pm

A TV met (wont say where from) just said there is NO surface circulation there.


Did she read the TWO?????


This is yet another reason to get your info from OFFICIAL sources.
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#413 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:57 pm

Looks like any LLC is right on the coast line right now around 23 north/98 or so west. This system looks to be mostly over land. But on the other hand theres two buoys on at 94 west/22 north...Another at 25 north/94.5 west. Which point north-northwestward winds. Theres a buoy just off texas with west-northwest winds at 26 north/96.5. This would say that there is a enlongated area of low pressure. In which may just may be 24 north/97 west....

This is the one to watch...The MLC with the coldest cloud tops is right there and the nhc/navy puts there invest center right there. This system could develop quickly like Alison or other systems that have formed. In a north-northwest track is likely around the upper low...In which the other LLC to the south is under this upper low.

I give it a 50 percent chance of becoming tropical storm Chirst.
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#414 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:58 pm

>>No mean ladies over here.

8-) I forgot how that works. :D

Steve
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#415 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:58 pm

By Wednsday we might be seeing TD #3. Looking good 98L! 8-)
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#416 Postby DJJordan » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:58 pm

I'll tell you what .... even if she didn't read the TWO .... perhaps she should just use common sense and see that it is trying to form a LLC as we speak ... I agree official sources are best.
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#417 Postby hicksta » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:59 pm

We will have no clue where she is heading until we find a LLC then we can have an idea. If it relocates its LLC a little more offshore than we thought it would change everything
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#418 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:59 pm

>>I give it a 50 percent chance of becoming tropical storm Chirst.

Would this be the brother of Jesus H.?

Steve
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#419 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:00 pm

Christ!
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#420 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:01 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: I think Matthew needs to realize that the name is CHRIS.
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