12z CMC brings a TC toward the Carolina's.......

[ThunderMate]

well, what are the other models doing with this feature if anything at all?

[Hohwxny]

Your right not to write it off.

I'm not saying to write it off, because anything is possible in the tropics, but I wouldn't give it anymore credibility just because it nailed one out of 28 sorms last year. That's all.

[bvigal]

Since this is an actual surface low pressure, which has existed for a while, I don't understand why it's not shown on most of the models at Cyclone Phase Evolution? Even if no development is expected, wouldn't it appear as existing? ("Black = exiting lows")

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

I think that since no one has actually entered the data on a current low pressure it would not be there. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Some lows need to be entered into the data and then let it run.

In certain cases, yes. Usually though they give the model a run, or two first, before manually inputting such a system. They prefer not to do this, as it is an "artificial construct", and tends to under perform (interacting badly with other "naturally generated" data sets/systems) , or even be lost in future runs.

Thanks, guys. That does explain what I've seen on these the last 2 years. But it does make me wonder: if the models can't accurately grasp what's actually taking place in the present time, how good are the projections? I guess the answer is, if something's really organizing out there, they do just fine. It's only these borderline or hopeless little lows that are left out. Conversely, sometimes they ID lows as "existing" and yet they aren't drawn on TAFB surface maps, i.e. don't exist.

[Jim Cantore]

Your right not to write it off.

I'm not saying to write it off, because anything is possible in the tropics, but I wouldn't give it anymore credibility just because it nailed one out of 28 sorms last year. That's all.

Hey 5 days out, I'd expect 0/28

[storms in NC]

Well I don't think any models had picked up on Beryl. So and thing can happen.

[boca]

The bamm model did which is funny.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well Bvigal you nailed it. That is one of the big problems in tropical forecasting today. Efforts are being made to remedy it, but as of yet things are dicey at best.

[ThunderMate]

what is the CMC doing with it today?

[bvigal]

what is the CMC doing with it today?

Latest CMC model at 0Z doesn't even show this low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[SWFLA_CANE]

Are you sure I just looked and it shows a red 83 (future low) and tracks it north west toward the Carolinas?

[ThunderMate]

could i get a link to view myself please...thanks

[bvigal]

Are you sure I just looked and it shows a red 83 (future low) and tracks it north west toward the Carolinas?

Yes, I think you are correct! I was looking for an EXISTING low.

[bvigal]

could i get a link to view myself please...thanks

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/83.html

[cheezyWXguy]

could i get a link to view myself please...thanks

I wanna view myslef too

[terstorm1012]

local news this morning and last night here mentioned a low possibly forming along the stalled out front but did not distinguish tropical or non-tropical.

[ThunderMate]

Do you think it would recurve like the CMC is showing if this thing does develope and take a similar track?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Way too early to say, after all nothing may form at all. I guess we all have to just stay tuned.

BTW Though the first projected path is usually never the one a storm eventually takes.