Wave in Central Caribbean

[MortisFL]

Take a look at the SST's closer to home..

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

No mention

800
ABNT20 KNHC 241515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[bvigal]

I'm really surprised, as convection is now forming on this low.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

A little more convection than earlier this morning with the low.

[gatorcane]

I'm really surprised, as convection is now forming on this low.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

I think it needs a little more convection today and we'll see it mentioned in the 5:30 TWO - just not quite enough convection yet....

[cheezyWXguy]

it better hurry up...if you look at the visible loop then you can see the dust closing in fast behind it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[bvigal]

The dust has been all around it for 2 days. That's why it's been a naked swirl. NWS mentioned Saturday that the leading edge of dust was with the wave that just passed 65W this morning.

538 AM AST SAT JUL 22 2006
..... AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVES AT ABOUT 64 WEST...49 WEST AND 30 WEST ARE MARCHING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THE FIRST WAVE SHOWS SLIGHT MOISTURE...THE SECOND AND THIRD ARE EMBEDDED IN DRIER SAHARAN AIR THAT IS HEAVILY LADEN WITH DUST. THE LAST TWO ALSO APPEAR TO CARRY WIND SURGES THAT WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS AFTER THEY PASS.

And from this morning, they write:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH STRONG RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 65 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EASTER CARIBBEAN AND HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ILL DEFINED WAVE WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SAHARA DUST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 43W IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO SURROUNDED BY EXTENSIVE AMOUNTS OF SAHARA DUST IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTER CARIBBEAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND BRING SOME ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL REGION. ...

[bvigal]

12z surface map is out, showing low pressure to rise from 1011 to 1013.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z surface map is out, showing low pressure to rise from 1011 to 1013.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

yeah, looking at this, the system may not become a concern until well down the road. If it stays weak it will probably enter the Caribbean and could be a threat to the Gulf during the first weak in August.

[ThunderMate]

well it still has a while before even reaching the islands so it may still strengthen some and go north of the islands and be a threat to the SE US. down the road. It looks like it is trying to refire some convection right over the center this morning anyways so lets just sit back and watch.

[bvigal]

OK, floater 2 has now been aimed at this low.

[cycloneye]

Visible Floater Image

Infared Floater Image

Above are the visible and infared floater images of the low.It has fired some convection but much more is needed.

[bvigal]

True, it doesn't look impressive at all. I think what interests me about this particular wave is it's embedded in dry air and still managed some convection. Also, if it IS going to do something upon reaching 60W or so, that will only be a few hours from us. If I were on the mainland, I'd have little interest in this right now.

[drezee]

The closest buoy/ship on the S side reported a west wind at 15z.

24/15 41026 11.4 -38.0 26.7 260 5 27.4 41026

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't think we'll see any 99Ls soon but this low is getting pretty close to becoming one.

[Steve H.]

That is a contradictory statement. You won't see 99L's but this is close to becoming one? Anyhow, this low pressure area needs to be watched as it is maintaining a tight circulation in an unfavorable environment. Conditions should improve once it nears the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Visible Image



Above is another view of the low.

[bvigal]

Pressure down to 29.88 at 41041.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

2:05pm Discussion of wave

...TROPICAL WAVES...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PRONOUNCED INVERTED V PATTERN
IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 24N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW
IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE AND LOW REMAIN
WELL-DEFINED IN AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SFC LOW AND AT THE BASE OF THE WAVE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 10N. THIS CENTRAL ATLC WAVE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
TRACKS UNDER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING IT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU
AND FRI.

[vacanechaser]

did anyone see this?????

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 24 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
18.0N 060.0W FOR 27/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: TODAY'S LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CANCELLED 24/1200Z.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team