98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[perk]

I think the NHC did right by cancelling the recon for 98L, those missions cost a small fortune, and with no discernable center that money can be used to fund a more serious threat.

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC did right by cancelling the recon for 98L, those missions cost a small fortune, and with no discernable center that money can be used to fund a more serious threat.

That's right!!!

[Jim Cantore]

Besides the center is over land

[T-man]

I agree, and I also think they won't go out for at least two days and only then if it maintains convection for the period, and develops a LLC...

[Stormcenter]

Besides the center is over land

What center?

[Thunder44]

Besides the center is over land

What center?

There really is no center anymore. HPC analyizes a surface trough under those cluster of thunderstorms.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

[Jim Cantore]

Besides the center is over land

What center?

Good question, I thought i'd spotted one but I looped it and didnt get a spin. My bad

[Stormavoider]

My wild guess is 24.5N 94.5W moving NE. I'm not basing this on much other than the visible sat.

It looks more like a northward movement.

If it's centered any were near were I said, We should see a dramatic change from this buoy real soon.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[Stormavoider]

This is dramatic

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42002&meas=wspd&uom=E

[HURAKAN]

INTERESTING. POWERFUL T-STORMS!!!

[tailgater]

My wild guess is 24.5N 94.5W moving NE. I'm not basing this on much other than the visible sat.

It looks more like a northward movement.

If it's centered any were near were I said, We should see a dramatic change from this buoy real soon.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Surf's up

[Thunder44]

This is dramatic

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42002&meas=wspd&uom=E

Whoa winds sustained 40mph gusting 50mph! Pretty for a cluster of thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

800
ABNT20 KNHC 241515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

So I guess they decided to revert their recon flight resoures to Hurricane Daniel in the Pacific. I guess we have enough surface obs in the GOM.

[wxman22]

[brunota2003]

well, the recon mission was supposed to be an invest, looking for a closed low etc, since they already know that there is a surface low there, then recon would of been a waste of time and money in their opinions I guess

[Stormcenter]

800
ABNT20 KNHC 241515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Oh well so much for it being over land.

[dixiebreeze]

Not "dead" yet:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

CORRECTED WIND GUSTS

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

[PTrackerLA]

So now the NHC is saying a depression could form soon. Interesting to say the least, let's see if the convection keeps up throughout the day.

[Hohwxny]

So I guess they decided to revert their recon flight resoures to Hurricane Daniel in the Pacific. I guess we have enough surface obs in the GOM.

Yup, they are stationing the G-IV for possible flights into Daniel.