98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gatorcane]

Well the local news here in Houston did mention it tonight... It was acutally at the top of the news tonight... go figure... now everyone is going to get batteries and water and bread....

...but what about beer? You can't forget the beer at a time like this!!!

Good point! But the RUM? Where is the RUM?

[canetracker]

Well the local news here in Houston did mention it tonight... It was acutally at the top of the news tonight... go figure... now everyone is going to get batteries and water and bread....

...but what about beer? You can't forget the beer at a time like this!!!

Yes, never forget the beer!! Further, one lesson I remembered from returning from Katrina is to remember lots of ice or a way to keep the beer cold.

Not sure of 98L's future, but one thing is for sure.... it will be a rainmaker.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Well the local news here in Houston did mention it tonight... It was acutally at the top of the news tonight... go figure... now everyone is going to get batteries and water and bread....

...but what about beer? You can't forget the beer at a time like this!!!

Good point! But the RUM? Where is the RUM?

Why did they make it lead news? It's not much of anything yet.

[Yankeegirl]

I dint know why it made the top news, but I guess they arent taking any chances here after Rita and Katrina... As for the beer and rum, we dont drink, but I did stock up on pleanty of Pepsi and Mountain Dew!!!

[Stormcenter]

Looks like some new convection blowing up further north in the BOC/SW GOM.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The wave is inland over Mexico at around 100 to 101 west. While two upper level low pressures one off the Texas coast, and another at 24 north/96 west. Yes there is a flat upper level Anticyclone over the southern BOC. But its funneling shear coming off tropical storm Emillia. If in this is a super big if theres going to be tropical cyclone formation I would watch the southeast or east side of the upper low.(24/96) Why because surface lows normally develop southeast of the ULL. About where that blow up is developing.

I would not give it a very high chance.

[Jim Cantore]

I've been hearing on the weather channel that the upper level conditions are becoming more anticyclonic. and it was one year ago right now we had Tropical Storm Gert over this same area. They also mentioned that there is a surface low and if it fires a bit that the Hurricane Hunters will go out.

With all this in mind, I'm liking this things chances IF it fires up today, or form a new surface low if not I have it's chances dropping like a rock.

[tailgater]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240852
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

On satellite and radar imagery out Browsville it looks like the disturbance is trying to get better organized further north this morning around 23N 95W and is moving more northward than NW. However, there is a dagger of upper-level shear still coming from west from the outflow of Emilia right into it, that will prevent this from organizing too quickly. Surface obs in the area show no signs of surface circulation forming either.

This just in...buoy 42055 reporting sustained ESE winds of 27kts and 35kts gust. Highest 1 min average of about 31kts sustained. Pressure fell to 29.87 inches.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Starburst]

It does look like it is trying to get a little better organized this morning and the NWS has issued Special weather statements for our area this morning so I guess they think it is still something to watch.

[kjun]

Something is trying to get organized and I think the NHC thinks that is quite possible. Convection is on the increase and pressures are falling at all bouys that I checked in the Western and West-Central GOM. If this continues, we could have a depression in 24 hours.

[wxman57]

On satellite and radar imagery out Browsville it looks like the disturbance is trying to get better organized further north this morning around 23N 95W and is moving more northward than NW. However, there is a dagger of upper-level shear still coming from west from the outflow of Emilia right into it, that will prevent this from organizing too quickly. Surface obs in the area show no signs of surface circulation forming either.

This just in...buoy 42055 reporting sustained ESE winds of 27kts and 35kts gust. Highest 1 min average of about 31kts sustained. Pressure fell to 29.87 inches.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

That's just a thunderstorm moving through. The "center" of the disturbance appears to be inland in Mexico. All winds are blowing from the SE across the SW Gulf. Note that no models were run on it overnight - there's nothing to run a model on. Will likely bring some rain to NE Mexico and Texas, but development appears to be unlikely.

[Jim Cantore]

So it's over land now?

Ok then, R.I.P

[TampaFl]

Here is a loop of current buoy & ship reports of the Gulf Of Mexico.

http://oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/marineloop.html



Robert

[tailgater]

Buoy in Boc at 5:50 am
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Thunder44]

On satellite and radar imagery out Browsville it looks like the disturbance is trying to get better organized further north this morning around 23N 95W and is moving more northward than NW. However, there is a dagger of upper-level shear still coming from west from the outflow of Emilia right into it, that will prevent this from organizing too quickly. Surface obs in the area show no signs of surface circulation forming either.

This just in...buoy 42055 reporting sustained ESE winds of 27kts and 35kts gust. Highest 1 min average of about 31kts sustained. Pressure fell to 29.87 inches.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

That's just a thunderstorm moving through. The "center" of the disturbance appears to be inland in Mexico. All winds are blowing from the SE across the SW Gulf. Note that no models were run on it overnight - there's nothing to run a model on. Will likely bring some rain to NE Mexico and Texas, but development appears to be unlikely.

You may be right. Tampico just came in with an ob. WSW at 6mph with a pressure of 1010mb. The "center" may be just north of them.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

[Thunder44]

6z Models just came out. They initialized the "center" at 23.4N 97.1W just off the Mexico coast between Brownsville, TX and Tampico. This would be at 6z though and they have it moving NNW at 12kts so it would be inland by now if that where to continue.


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060724 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 0600 060724 1800 060725 0600 060725 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 97.1W 24.8N 97.2W 26.2N 97.6W 27.6N 97.9W
BAMM 23.4N 97.1W 24.7N 97.8W 26.0N 98.7W 27.2N 99.4W
A98E 23.4N 97.1W 25.6N 97.5W 27.4N 97.2W 29.2N 96.3W
LBAR 23.4N 97.1W 25.1N 97.4W 26.9N 97.7W 28.6N 97.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 0600 060727 0600 060728 0600 060729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.7N 98.1W 30.5N 99.1W 32.0N 100.5W 33.1N 101.6W
BAMM 27.9N 99.8W 29.2N 100.8W 30.6N 103.1W 32.3N 105.2W
A98E 30.5N 95.8W 31.8N 94.0W 33.4N 91.2W 34.9N 89.1W
LBAR 30.2N 96.5W 32.5N 94.2W 35.8N 90.7W 40.0N 83.8W
SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 57KTS 56KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 97.1W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 96.7W DIRM12 = 341DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 95.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KatDaddy]

These plots point to a middle TX Coast landfall should anything develop. At a minimum TX will likely experience a signifcant flood threat through WED

[GalvestonDuck]

I was beat after the past three days of work and I could barely stay awake for the news. Channel 13 didn't stick to their usualy promise about weather forecasts "never more than 8 minutes away." At 10:11, when they went to the first commercial break, I just said, "Forget it" and crawled into bed.

Now I need to catch up....

Danged media!!

[Nimbus]

Convection seems to be converging near 24 N 96 W. Texas might get a good soaking but proximity to land issues should keep any future intensification down some.