Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

Eyewall · #441 Postby **Eyewall** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:56 pm

i didnt care in 2004...lol
but i cant stand people getting so exited over a 50 mph storm...
when they start talking like
THIS THING IS LOOKING REALLY GOOD!!
and its getting sheared appart...
sure if your in the path of it, then i can uderstand, but if you live in CA and the storm is hitting NY...c'mon now people

and a belessing??
i would love to get hit by a cat 2 right now... if people are smart, nobody would get hurt :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #442 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:58 pm

Eyewall wrote:i didnt care in 2004...lol
but i cant stand people getting so exited over a 50 mph storm...
when they start talking like
THIS THING IS LOOKING REALLY GOOD!!
and its getting sheared appart...
sure if your in the path of it, then i can uderstand, but if you live in CA and the storm is hitting NY...c'mon now people

and a belessing??
i would love to get hit by a cat 2 right now... if people are smart, nobody would get hurt

well how about the millions or billions of dollars that Cat. 2 would do in damages? You would want that too?

Grease Monkey · #443 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 3:59 pm

Ah now I understand your frustration. You get no love from the canes. I would've thought your earthquakes would be more exciting to you. :wink:

#444 Postby **bvigal** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 5:16 pm

What a differenct 6 hrs makes! 2mb drop on wave at 40W, now down to 1011mb, predicted further to 1010mb.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

#445 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 7:23 pm

00:00z Full Disk Image

:uarrow:

Clearly even at this infared image of the full disk you can see the surface low midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

#446 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 7:39 pm

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N39W. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE
AFRICAN DUST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

8 PM Discussion from TPC.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #447 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:16 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

This is about as dead as you ever see in late July!

storm4u · #448 Postby **storm4u** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 1:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

This is about as dead as you ever see in late July!

To bad the whole season wont be like that!!

It will get active soon! :eek:

#449 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 5:54 am

[quote="cycloneye"]HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N39W. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE
AFRICAN DUST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

8 PM Discussion from TPC.[/quote
This Low should be getting more attenion, I know it's in the dust bowl but it's held together since coming off the coast and Upper level winds seem some what favorable until gets into the eastern Caribbean. But the models sure aren't doing much with it'

#450 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 6:45 am

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 24N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS
WAVE AND LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED WITH A LOW LEVEL ROTATION
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURROUNDING
SHIPS/BUOYS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING ON THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC LOW AND AT THE BASE OF THE WAVE
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 10N. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.

8 AM Discussion.

#451 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:26 am

The one thing that people are quick to forget is the you must watch the waves in the early parts of the season. During this year, most of the low latitude (below 18N) waves have enhanced just East of the islands. North of 18N, they have also enhanced, but due to interaction with the TUTT. I think this one will be no exception. Convection will fire in earnest before reaching the islands(around 50W)...whatever chance it has will be the greatest at that time.

Extremeweatherguy · #452 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:28 am

cycloneye wrote:HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 24N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS
WAVE AND LOW REMAIN WELL-DEFINED WITH A LOW LEVEL ROTATION
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURROUNDING
SHIPS/BUOYS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING ON THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SFC LOW AND AT THE BASE OF THE WAVE
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 10N. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.

8 AM Discussion.

If this thing can gain some convection, then WATCH OUT! I will be monitoring it closely.

#453 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:31 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Nothing to see in the data in this bouy that opens eyebrows except for the winds from the NE meaning the low is to the east of that bouy which is located at 14.5n-46.0w.

#454 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:35 am

I was also looking at that just now, Luis. I think it's significant that rising daytime pressure has leveled at only 29.92. I believe another drop is coming.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

#455 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:39 am

As I said yesterday, 41041 is the buoy to watch. The pressure is continuing the downward trend. Unfortunately, the low has gone WSW in the last 24 hours and will pass S of that location...

#456 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:46 am

if this wave waits until geting closer to the islands/US to develop, looks like we are following on the heals of the 2005 pattern.

Thunder44 · #457 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:32 am

They didn't even schedule another flight for next two days. They must not think this has chance of developing anytime soon.

#458 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:34 am

CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 24 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
18.0N 060.0W FOR 27/1800Z.

TPC/NHC is definitely becoming more interested in this wave for reasons we don't know yet - perhaps they think conditions will become favorable over the next couple of days

#459 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:39 am

This wave will be reaching warmer waters in the next 24-48 hours , this will be time to see if it can fire up some thunderstorms.

#460 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 12:42 pm

Didn't know where to place this so here it is. If you look to the northeast of Puerto Rico you can see a blop that looks like a missile. Thought it was cool looking.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

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