98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

One problem with development - there needs to be at least one thunderstorm. Currently, just some mid and high clouds over the BoC. Chances of development seem fairly low. In order for development to occur, there needs to be solid cluster of thunderstorms in the same area for 18-24 hours or more. Otherwise, it's difficult to develop an LLC.

Exactly, which is why I said earlier that conditions may be more favorable in a couple of days but if there is nothing left, well that is a problem.

Mean mid-level flow will be SSE-S at 25-35 kts across the western Gulf by tomorrow. In a couple of days, whatever's left of 98L should be over northern Mexico and Texas. Time for development is running out fast.

No complaints on that analysis, but I think time already ran out

[Stormavoider]

Is this spin you can see at 22N 96.5W a LLC?? There is no hint of it on water vapor. That tells me it's not an upper level feature. Where am I going wrong?

[Stratosphere747]

What satellite source are you using?

[Stormavoider]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Stratosphere747]

Try this...Updates faster and you can zoom in...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

There was a mid-level spin earlier, but it is all but gone now.

Only way IMO this survives is if it picks up some energy that Emilia is throwing out.

[wxman57]

Is this spin you can see at 22N 96.5W a LLC?? There is no hint of it on water vapor. That tells me it's not an upper level feature. Where am I going wrong?

Nothing at all at the surface. Don't think it qualifies for an invest at this point. Probably will be dropped tomorrow unless convection returns. No recon, almost certainly.

[Stormavoider]

If you look at the frames from 21:45 till 23:45 UTC you can see a spin at 22N 96.5W. It then gets recovered with upper level stuff.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Ivanhater]

If you look at the frames from 21:45 till 23:45 UTC you can see a spin at 22N 96.5W. It then gets recovered with upper level stuff.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Any spin you see on that image would be in the mid to upper levels, I see nothing at the low levels.

[wxman57]

One other thing to consider when trying to discern rotationusing satellite. You're looking down on a column of air about 10 miles thick. There are clouds throughout that column at different levels moving in different directions. Also, clouds are developing and dissipating at different levels all the time. It's quite easy for the eye to be deceived by cloud elements moving in different directions and developing/dissipating at different levels. Such motions may give the perception of a circulation when none exists at any one level. The key is to focus on the lower level cumulus clouds and ignore the mid and upper-level cloud motions. Looking at the loop, I can see the lower level cloud elements moving to the northwest. Other cloud elements aloft may be moving from west to east, but there is no evidence of low-level cumulus moving in any direction but from SE to NW.

As we lose visible imagery, it's particularly difficult to discern any LLC, as low-level cloud elements are generally obscured by mid and upper-level cloud features.

[Stratosphere747]

57....

Is it possible as Emilia moves away, that a piece of energy coming from her outflow would enhance this system in any way?

[cycloneye]

747,Emilia is not moving so fast right now,only 7 kts per 00:00z models.That means it wont be away fast.

[Stratosphere747]

Agree about the slow movement of Emilia.

What I'm intrigued about, is the dynamics of the energy of another system from the EPAC enhancing whatever piece of energy we have left in the BOC.

If you notice over the last hour or so of satellite, that while the convection had considerably died down in the BOC, convection has begun to stream in from Emilia, and back into the BOC.

[cycloneye]

Yes agree.Emilia is a big system,even though the center is located well offshore the Mexican coast around 250 miles the outflow extends all the way into Mexico and to the BOC.

[dixiebreeze]

One other thing to consider when trying to discern rotationusing satellite. You're looking down on a column of air about 10 miles thick. There are clouds throughout that layer at different levels moving in different directions. Also, clouds are developing and dissipating at different levels all the time. It's quite easy for the eye to be deceived by cloud elements moving in different directions and developing/dissipating at different levels. Such motions may give the perception of a circulation when none exists at any one level. The key is to focus on the lower level cumulus clouds and ignore the mid and upper-level cloud motions. Looking at the loop, I can see the lower level cloud elements moving to the northwest. Other cloud elements aloft may be moving from west to east, but there is no evidence of low-level cumulus moving in any direction but from SE to NW.

As we lose visible imagery, it's particularly difficult to discern any LLC, as low-level cloud elements are generally obscured by mid and upper-level cloud features.

Excellent analysis wxman57. Thank you for your expertise.

[Stormavoider]

One other thing to consider when trying to discern rotationusing satellite. You're looking down on a column of air about 10 miles thick. There are clouds throughout that column at different levels moving in different directions. Also, clouds are developing and dissipating at different levels all the time. It's quite easy for the eye to be deceived by cloud elements moving in different directions and developing/dissipating at different levels. Such motions may give the perception of a circulation when none exists at any one level. The key is to focus on the lower level cumulus clouds and ignore the mid and upper-level cloud motions. Looking at the loop, I can see the lower level cloud elements moving to the northwest. Other cloud elements aloft may be moving from west to east, but there is no evidence of low-level cumulus moving in any direction but from SE to NW.

As we lose visible imagery, it's particularly difficult to discern any LLC, as low-level cloud elements are generally obscured by mid and upper-level cloud features.

Thank you for the explanation. That is helpful. What I was seeing was half obscured by upper level clouds. If you block out all frames except 20:45, 21:15, 21:45, 22:15 and 22:45, you can see the northern half (well almost half) of a circulation centered at 21N 96W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 240219
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Edited..

[senorpepr]

:blows the whistle:

Okay... okay... everyone back to their respective corners. Let's drop that subject and return to discussing 98L. Thank you.

[Yankeegirl]

Well the local news here in Houston did mention it tonight... It was acutally at the top of the news tonight... go figure... now everyone is going to get batteries and water and bread....

[senorpepr]

Well the local news here in Houston did mention it tonight... It was acutally at the top of the news tonight... go figure... now everyone is going to get batteries and water and bread....

...but what about beer? You can't forget the beer at a time like this!!!