12z CMC brings a TC toward the Carolina's.......

[Dean4Storms]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


I think that is two runs in a row that CMC developes a closed low in the western Atlantic, this run just developed it further west near the PR and takes it toward the Bahamas and then nothward toward the Carolina's.

[cycloneye]

That may be from the surface low that is now around 40w at 15n.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 22N WITH A 1013
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE
OBSERVED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA
OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

[NDG]

I don't believe the CMC when is acting alone in forecasting tropical development because is usually so aggressive in developing any little disturbance, not unless it strengthens it into a strong TS or Hurricane to where I at least see where development is eminent but I will still downplay the strength.

[Dean4Storms]

Certainly nobody should stop or change any plans over this run and I'm with you on doubting the CMC at this point. But, it is something to keep an eye on over the next several runs to see if it continues and to see if any other models begin closing off a low from this wave.

BTW, I agree with your assessment Cycloneye, it appears to be that Wave you reference.

[Aquawind]

If this is the Low they are keeping it along the wave throughout the 72hr forecast period as of this morning..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, that is the low alright and looking at the dust picks it would come out of it as it nears the NE Carib. Islands. Something to watch.

[drezee]

CMC looks to recurve it before the Carolinas...

[shaggy]

i saw this low on the sat pic today and said to myself if it ever clears that dust and fires some storms then it needs to be watched but until that happens i am not worried yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 0&start=20

I have been monitoring this wave via the thread I posted above. The CMC has been developing a tropical system for the last day or so.

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO this model has been trending this area more and more westward as time goes on. At first it was northeast of the islands and then out to sea but, it has been consistent with development.

[Dean4Storms]

IMO this model has been trending this area more and more westward as time goes on. At first it was northeast of the islands and then out to sea but, it has been consistent with development.

We will have to watch it, the other models have a stronger ridge in place and sends the wave undeveloped into the Carib. or toward Florida. If the CMC keeps developing it and turns out to be correct and the others join but keep a stronger ridge in place it could be a Florida problem.

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO this model has been trending this area more and more westward as time goes on. At first it was northeast of the islands and then out to sea but, it has been consistent with development.

We will have to watch it, the other models have a stronger ridge in place and sends the wave undeveloped into the Carib. or toward Florida. If the CMC keeps developing it and turns out to be correct and the others join but keep a stronger ridge in place it could be a Florida problem.

That is something we do not need right now.

[bvigal]

Since this is an actual surface low pressure, which has existed for a while, I don't understand why it's not shown on most of the models at Cyclone Phase Evolution? Even if no development is expected, wouldn't it appear as existing? ("Black = exiting lows")

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[SouthFloridawx]

Since this is an actual surface low pressure, which has existed for a while, I don't understand why it's not shown on most of the models at Cyclone Phase Evolution? Even if no development is expected, wouldn't it appear as existing? ("Black = exiting lows")

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

I think that since no one has actually entered the data on a current low pressure it would not be there. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Some lows need to be entered into the data and then let it run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In certain cases, yes. Usually though they give the model a run, or two first, before manually inputting such a system. They prefer not to do this, as it is an "artificial construct", and tends to under perform (interacting badly with other "naturally generated" data sets/systems) , or even be lost in future runs.

[Jim Cantore]

I don't believe the CMC when is acting alone in forecasting tropical development because is usually so aggressive in developing any little disturbance, not unless it strengthens it into a strong TS or Hurricane to where I at least see where development is eminent but I will still downplay the strength.

It nailed Katrina being a massive powerful Hurricane 5 days out

[Hohwxny]

I don't believe the CMC when is acting alone in forecasting tropical development because is usually so aggressive in developing any little disturbance, not unless it strengthens it into a strong TS or Hurricane to where I at least see where development is eminent but I will still downplay the strength.

It nailed Katrina being a massive powerful Hurricane 5 days out

And a broken clock is right twice a day...

[Jim Cantore]

I don't believe the CMC when is acting alone in forecasting tropical development because is usually so aggressive in developing any little disturbance, not unless it strengthens it into a strong TS or Hurricane to where I at least see where development is eminent but I will still downplay the strength.

It nailed Katrina being a massive powerful Hurricane 5 days out

And a broken clock is right twice a day...

I'm just saying, dont write it off yet

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't believe the CMC when is acting alone in forecasting tropical development because is usually so aggressive in developing any little disturbance, not unless it strengthens it into a strong TS or Hurricane to where I at least see where development is eminent but I will still downplay the strength.

It nailed Katrina being a massive powerful Hurricane 5 days out

And a broken clock is right twice a day...

I'm just saying, dont write it off yet

Your right not to write it off.

[boca]

The low, is that the naked swirl out there by 40W.