98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HurricaneHunter914]

ships put it at a strong ts. But if it hits the warm waters we might see a cane out of her. Min. But with last year in mind anything can happen

Actually Hicksta, it would be a him since the next name is Chris.

[hicksta]

Yea but i call everything a girl. My jakced up truck on 37's is a she. Everyfish is a she lol its just how we do in texas

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Yea but i call everything a girl. My jakced up truck on 37's is a she. Everyfish is a she lol its just how we do in texas

Haha.. I was thinking that to.

[AnnularCane]

Yea but i call everything a girl. My jakced up truck on 37's is a she. Everyfish is a she lol its just how we do in texas

You're going to give poor Chris some gender identity issues if you start calling him "she." When he forms, that is.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the mid-level center is very close to Mexico coast now and may go inland this evening before it can develop. Even if it doesn't there is still alot of shear being caused by Emila in the Pacific over the system. It doesn't look like this system will be getting better organized until Emila moves further away.

[KatDaddy]

I did not preview all the threads yet so this may be already posted.

HOU-GAL updated AFD from earlier this morning.

.UPDATE...
PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE MENTIONED IN THE 1038 AM DISCUSSION THAT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY BRINGING
THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A LANDFALL AROUND THE ROCKPORT AREA). THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK SAYS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. IF NECESSARY...A PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. WHETHER THIS DEVELOPS TROPICALLY OR
NOT...WE EXPECT TO SEE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FROM AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. 42
&&

[mvtrucking]

24 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Opal storm]

24 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looks like it will probably go inland before developing into anything.

[hicksta]

Dont think so, newest run (GFDL) puts the center right in the middle of the boc with the weak steering currents pushing her north.

Looks like the mid-level center is very close to Mexico coast now and may go inland this evening before it can develop. Even if it doesn't there is still alot of shear being caused by Emila in the Pacific over the system. It doesn't look like this system will be getting better organized until Emila moves further away.

[Stratosphere747]

24 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

There looks to be some sort of circulation in that area...

Roughly around 20N 95W, a bit south, than where some may be looking.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Grease Monkey]

Well if the center is that far south, is it still expected to move a little north?

[Tampa_God]

Dont think so, newest run (GFDL) puts the center right in the middle of the boc with the weak steering currents pushing her north.

Looks like the mid-level center is very close to Mexico coast now and may go inland this evening before it can develop. Even if it doesn't there is still alot of shear being caused by Emila in the Pacific over the system. It doesn't look like this system will be getting better organized until Emila moves further away.

Ok, I thoghtI was crazy, because that is what i was thinking, but everyone was saying otherwise.

[wxman57]

Dont think so, newest run (GFDL) puts the center right in the middle of the boc with the weak steering currents pushing her north.

Looks like the mid-level center is very close to Mexico coast now and may go inland this evening before it can develop. Even if it doesn't there is still alot of shear being caused by Emila in the Pacific over the system. It doesn't look like this system will be getting better organized until Emila moves further away.

The "new" run of the GFDL is based upon a 12Z initial position. That position is about 100 miles northeast of where the "center" of 98L is estimated to be at 18Z. So the GFDL is using an old estimated position. Aof 1930Z, the MLC looks to be very near the coast of Mexico near 20N/96W not at 21N/95W (where the latest 12Z GFDL initialized). That's one problem with the GFDL, it's always 6 hours older than most of the other models. With a well-defined storm, it's not as much of a problem. But with a system where there is no real center, the initialization point is more critical.

[Stratosphere747]

Excerpts from Houston's afternoon disco...

ALL EYES THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH WHERE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURGES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO LARGE OF A JUMP
YET ON OUR POPS (ALL MOS POPS ARE ADVERTISING 60% TO 80% CHANCES)...BUT
FEEL THAT 60% POPS WILL DO FOR NOW. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE NATURE
OF THIS TROPICAL PLUME AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
(A PLANE MAY GO OUT AND CHECK THE SYSTEM OUT TOMORROW)...SO OUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES. ONCE
WE GET THIS SYSTEM AND ITS BEST MOISTURE FIELD INLAND

[jasons2k]

Excerpts from Houston's afternoon disco...

ALL EYES THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH WHERE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURGES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO LARGE OF A JUMP
YET ON OUR POPS (ALL MOS POPS ARE ADVERTISING 60% TO 80% CHANCES)...BUT
FEEL THAT 60% POPS WILL DO FOR NOW. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE NATURE
OF THIS TROPICAL PLUME AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
(A PLANE MAY GO OUT AND CHECK THE SYSTEM OUT TOMORROW)...SO OUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES. ONCE
WE GET THIS SYSTEM AND ITS BEST MOISTURE FIELD INLAND

I thought the conslusion was classic:

"JUST IN CASE YOU ARE WONDERING...THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM WILL BE NAMED
CHRIS (THERE SHOULD BE NO PRONUNCIATION PROBLEMS WITH THIS ONE)."

[southerngale]

Some of the mets are saying it will move northward and some are saying into Mexico? Are the steering currents that weak or is it just harder to predict since it really isn't "anything" yet? (if it ever will be)

[Stratosphere747]

Some of the mets are saying it will move northward and some are saying into Mexico? Are the steering currents that weak or is it just harder to predict since it really isn't "anything" yet? (if it ever will be)

I think it will depend on where the High is positioned in the Gulf. Also the "cold front" that was to come through SE Texas never really made it, and pulled up stationary.

This along with the High would have shunted whatever this mess is, into Mexico or deep south Texas.

Now with Emila moving away, I'm not sure how the upper level steering currents are setting up. Of course we need a closed low first, and the shear to let up. May never get its act together and just give us another few days of rain.

[KatDaddy]

Hey SG I was in your area during the day Friday at the Enbridge Gas Plant just E of Johnson's Bayou. I drive through Winnie and Port Arthur. Let me tell you that brought Rita right back home. Numerous FEMA trailers and homes just being rebuilt. The Gas plant had 6ft of surge during Rita which they are trying to bring back online. You can still the damage almost a year later. There were numerous blue tarps on roofs.

Our current BOC tropical disturbance is very disorganized. I agree with Wxman57. The mid level circulation is and will be onshore in the next few hours. Convection would need to explode well E of the current location for it to become a true bonifide tropical threat for the TX and SW LA Coast. It may however bring more tropical moisture to TX and LA.

[Brent]

Excerpts from Houston's afternoon disco...

ALL EYES THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH WHERE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURGES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. DO NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO LARGE OF A JUMP
YET ON OUR POPS (ALL MOS POPS ARE ADVERTISING 60% TO 80% CHANCES)...BUT
FEEL THAT 60% POPS WILL DO FOR NOW. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES IS STILL QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT GIVEN THE NATURE
OF THIS TROPICAL PLUME AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
(A PLANE MAY GO OUT AND CHECK THE SYSTEM OUT TOMORROW)...SO OUR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES. ONCE
WE GET THIS SYSTEM AND ITS BEST MOISTURE FIELD INLAND

I thought the conslusion was classic:

"JUST IN CASE YOU ARE WONDERING...THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM WILL BE NAMED
CHRIS (THERE SHOULD BE NO PRONUNCIATION PROBLEMS WITH THIS ONE)."

!!!!

Thankfully... but joy, we have Ernesto and Helene(it's French ) on the list this year.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Uhh.. how is Helene pronounced exactly? Like Hell with a long e as in bean?