98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Extremeweatherguy · #141 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:54 am

the area in the BOC looks to be weakening, but the central Gulf now looks like it is exploding. I think the ENTIRE Gulf needs to be watched over the next few days.

#142 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:55 am

With all of the mess in the W/C GOM right now this thing could form anywhere in those areas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Extremeweatherguy · #143 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:01 pm

Stormcenter wrote:With all of the mess in the W/C GOM right now this thing could form anywhere in those areas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

yeah, and depending on where something spins up it could be a threat for anyone from Mexico to Florida. One thing that makes me think TX could be safe is the CF currently west and north of the coast. This front may make any storm turn more eastward as it approaches the TX coast, thus possibly creating problems for the central Gulf coast.

#144 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:07 pm

Yes, with all of the troughiness that is on the EC if it forms a bit farther east it would put the EASTERN GOM at risk. Obviously it is very early to say but anyone from Texas to Florida should monitor this situation closely - especially if the UL winds die off, it could explode in the GOM.

Nimbus · #145 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:33 pm

Here we go again I just saw a cute little whirlwind in the low clouds near the new convection middle of the BOC. Seems to be an awful lot of shear around that keeps blowing the tops off these before they can get started.

HurricaneHunter914 · #146 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:35 pm

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

zoeyann · #147 Postby **zoeyann** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 12:43 pm

No wonder I woke up with a headache. The gulf is looking like one big mess.

#148 Postby **Starburst** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:01 pm

Updated model plots

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #149 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:08 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

#150 Postby **alicia-w** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:12 pm

i agree, especially since we're trying to sell our house.....

#151 Postby **mvtrucking** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:19 pm

Starburst wrote:Updated model plots

GFDL showing it coming on shore in Texas and curving east just on the east side of Shreveport.(We could get some much needed rain here in north La)

HurricaneHunter914 · #152 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:21 pm

Looks like the GFDL is the lone ranger on this.

Regit · #153 Postby **Regit** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:21 pm

That GFDL track would be great as long as it stayed weak. It brings it across the driest parts of the Southeast. I'm not holding my breath, though. :wink:

#154 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:24 pm

What you guys think about the 18z model runs initiating 98L so close to the MX coast, I know we don't have a defined LLC yet but I think they were looking at a mid level spin instead that seems to be dying out, I think that if something was to develop it will be further offshore & north.

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #155 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:24 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Although, I will add to what I wrote, a nice weak TS bringing rain to LA/MS wouldn't be to bad. As long as it is VERY weak.

#156 Postby **mvtrucking** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:25 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like the GFDL is the lone ranger on this.

Actually the Bam models are showing the west turn the others showing east.(I believe the Bam models are better in the deep tropics not so much, this far north?)

Extremeweatherguy · #157 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:25 pm

Starburst wrote:Updated model plots

the only problem is the thing the models are plotting looks pathetic right now. If shear doesn't die down I don't see this having enough time. I think a bigger threat to TX will be coming during August when those tropical waves out in the Atlantic meet a more favorable environment in the Caribbean and Gulf. When that happens...all bets are off. I predict at least 1 hurricane hit on the TX coast during the August through September time frame, and I see no reason why it won't have potential to be a major one (due to warm waters, and lessening August shear). For now though, I think if something does develop in the BOC it will be a weak TS at most. However, I could end up being very wrong, so we still need to closely watch this area.

StormScanWx · #158 Postby **StormScanWx** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:29 pm

Anyone know of any programs that will e-mail you if a TCFA is issued?

#159 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:29 pm

mvtrucking wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like the GFDL is the lone ranger on this.

Actually the Bam models are showing the west turn the others showing east.(I believe the Bam models are better in the deep tropics not so much, this far north?)

Don't forget that the BAM models are not dynamic, so it will forecast the track of a system as if the steerings were not to change.

hicksta · #160 Postby **hicksta** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 1:34 pm

ships put it at a strong ts. But if it hits the warm waters we might see a cane out of her. Min. But with last year in mind anything can happen

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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